Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

I’m with you. Been impatiently waiting since 2015! We are almost there friend! But if we sink back to $600, you wanna be roommates? I don’t do the dishes. I smell, and I have ten(10) cats.

Hey now!!! Not a laughing matter! I went to 4 different lenders, including my bank that I’ve banked with since 1994, to get a mortgage on a 200,000 dollar home, showing my Tesla shares as assets and enough cash in the bank for a 10%+ down payment in 2020 and was DENIED due to my taxable income being too low(selling my body for shares only makes so much)

It’s funny since then things have REALLY improved for me. Between 2015-2020 I was hellbent on not paying the banks a cent for my home, and I almost caved. If not for their greed & indecency I would be paying them interest right now, instead I’m back on the “Not a cent from me” bandwagon. Plus I get 2% cash back on every transaction on my CC.

I will bankrupt Wells Fargo myself.

Keep spanking the good spank, brother.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Fremont Production lines - how many for Model 3? If two or more, can't they switch one over at a time?

 

[bkp_duke]

Why not start Model 3 production in Austin?

Because it would be a major undertaking. Either requiring many more robots than were planned, or a version change with casting on the car. Casting is not something you just "drop in and start", it would be a brand new line, requiring a lot of tooling (which has to be ordered).

Plus, there is not floor space planned for the 3 in Austin. It's Y and CT, and Tesla would have to do a major re-work to fit all 3 in (not sure that's even possible).



The "path of least resistance" would be to find ways to speed up the current Fremont lines. The second best option would be to take one line down in Fremont and implement a cast Model 3 there, but this would require ramp time and cause lower production numbers for 6-9 months.

 

[SOULPEDL]

The only reason why I am even talking about semi is because production have been pulled forward. During the q4 2021 earnings call, which happened in 2022, Musk said "hopefully to start semi production next year" and talks about how potentially they will make less cars if they were to add more products. I feel like the tax bill have changed this plan and moved the schedule of semi forward which is causing a few things to shift.

Seems to reason how they'd likely accelerate the mission by introducing a new class of transportation (Semi, and even CyberTruck in '23 for the off-road types). When there are examples of these on YouTube everywhere, the number of folks who start thinking in terms of application will grow more quickly, especially Semi. Plus it's bullish on the battery situation.

 

[Bouboule]

Cause for a lawsuit. No joke, and I'm not an attorney, but if you have been shown something is false (and his conversation with Electrik is in the public space - Twitter), and you STILL proceed with a smear campaign, that seems pretty cut and dry to me.

Tesla needs to go after these guys hard core, show them that there are large financial consequences to libel.

From my point of view, this add is great news. I am looking forward to buying some call options on FSD when I see right. All this propaganda will only increase the compression of the spring. The end result of FSD on financials and timing is in no way impacted by these type of FUD.
Thanks to them I see FSD being valued near zero until we hit one of those two scenarios: Level4 somewhere in the world or huge price increase on FSD. And this can happen almost overnight(Not saying it will happen soon, just that the switch will be almost overnight). I would not be surprised if this could 2X-3X in a very short period of time.
Perception of the general population is important long term, but will not impact FSD capabilities and timing.

 

[Pezpunk]

If you don’t mind me asking… do you consider the number to be net worth or “liquid” net worth (excluding home equity)?

It kinda doesn't matter, since I would advise everyone to do their own math, but I was just counting liquid assets excluding home equity, since we have no desire to sell the house. But people performing the same calculus should run the numbers based on criteria that makes sense for their situation.

 

[bkp_duke]

From my point of view, this add is great news. I am looking forward to buying some call options on FSD when I see right. All this propaganda will only increase the compression of the spring. The end result of FSD on financials and timing is in no way impacted by these type of FUD.
Thanks to them I see FSD being valued near zero until we hit one of those two scenarios: Level4 somewhere in the world or huge price increase on FSD. And this can happen almost overnight(Not saying it will happen soon, just that the switch will be almost overnight). I would not be surprised if this could 2X-3X in a very short period of time.
Perception of the general population is important long term, but will not impact FSD capabilities and timing.

Agreed, but my major concern is this:
The game is rigged, we know that. I would put good money that O'Dowd is paying (I mean "donating to their re-election campaigns") politicians like Blumenthal, Nader, etc. to target Tesla FSD. That could pose a serious and legitimate problem if it progresses.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think a lot of well intentioned people started out with a balanced portfolio containing TSLA, but a split or two here, 10x growth there, and now their portfolio is 95% TSLA

 

[Singuy]

Agreed, but my major concern is this:
The game is rigged, we know that. I would put good money that O'Dowd is paying (I mean "donating to their re-election campaigns") politicians like Blumenthal, Nader, etc. to target Tesla FSD. That could pose a serious and legitimate problem if it progresses.

I would just file a suit and drown the guy in lawyer fees. This takes the ad down immediately due to it being in litigation. Drag it out for a few years and bankrupt that guy.

 

[mongo]

The only reason why I am even talking about semi is because production have been pulled forward. During the q4 2021 earnings call, which happened in 2022, Musk said "hopefully to start semi production next year" and talks about how potentially they will make less cars if they were to add more products. I feel like the tax bill have changed this plan and moved the schedule of semi forward which is causing a few things to shift.

Two thoughts:
The first is that, as you mention, Elon was speaking in terms of the chip and supply issues when projecting timing. It's eight 8 months later and things are looking better.

Tesla (TSLA) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool
And there were not -- that was not the only supply chain issue, so -- just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.

So if we'd actually introduced an additional product, that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product, resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered. And the same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year. It would not make any sense because we'll still be parts constrained.

We will, however, do a lot of engineering and tooling, whatnot to create those vehicles: Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster, Optimus, and be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year. That is most likely. But like I said, it is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars? So in terms of priority of products, I think the -- I think actually the most important product development we're doing this year is actually the Optimus humanoid robot. This, I think, has the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time.

Second thought is that there is start of production, first salable article, and then volume production. Volume production lags quire a bit so if plan was/ is a somewhat ramped output in 2023, they need to start the lines this year.

Below paragraph from the 8K mention that the CyberTruck is being planned for production, but no mention of Semi here.

On the Cybertruck side, the 9000 ton casting press is moving from IDRA to Austin soon as part of it's line bring up. Semi's more conventional tooling is likely close to ready. Combined with the different certification/ regulation requirements of a Class 8 truck, it could be ready to sell. Musk also had the leaked June 2020 memo calling for Semi volume production push, so, 2 years later, it seems ready when the supply chain is.

It’s time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production. It’s been in limited production so far, which has allowed us to improve many aspects of the design. Production of the battery and powertrain would take place at Giga Nevada, with most of the other work probably occurring in other states. Jerome and I are very excited to work with you to bring this amazing product to market!”

Tesla shares surpass $1,000 on Semi truck production memo – TechCrunch

 

[Ipcress]

Auto manufacturing, EV or ICE, is one of the toughest, riskiest industries in the world. A modern car averages 30,000 individual parts, each to be designed (or selected), thousands of vendors to be managed, with supply chains always threatened by various global pressures. Every new vehicle is a massive investment in design and engineering time, facilities, manufacturing equipment and tooling, let alone qualification testing (crash tests, EPA, various safety mandates). Every new manufacturer is going against others with a century of experience in design, engineering and manufacturing. Not every company that wants to jump into that fray is going to survive, no matter the hype. The fact that Tesla managed to do so says a tremendous amount about their management.

Thanks--this is an exceptionally useful reply. Rivian, Lucid, Arcimoto, Aptera and all the other start-ups in this space are to be congratulated for getting as far as they have thus far. Tesla cannot do it alone, and we should try to be supportive of the others, yes, even the (better) OEM's like Ford, Kia, etc. It will take all players to move the needle enough to do the job, and they already have the vast forces of darkness working against them--the fossil fuel suppliers and their political henchmen, and much of the purchased media. And they don't have an Elon, or anything like him!

 

[Mengy]

I think a lot of well intentioned people started out with a balanced portfolio containing TSLA, but a split or two here, 10x growth there, and now their portfolio is 95% TSLA

When I bought my first share of TSLA back in 2018 I was only intending to make it a small position in my portfolio of many other stocks.

However, the more I looked at Tesla's financials, and the more I modeled their future growth, the more I wanted to buy many more shares. I sold some of my oil stocks to buy more TSLA. Then I sold all of my oil stocks. Then I sold INTC, then AMZN, then GOOG, and slowly but surely I gravitated 95% of my investment portfolio into TSLA by Fall of 2019. My conviction was just so strong, I felt like I knew this secret that few others knew about. I hadn't even driven a Tesla car at this point, not yet.

Then I discovered TMC, after I was already pretty much all-in on TSLA. Then I found Solving the Money Problem on YouTube, and gradually I realized there were many, MANY others who too felt Tesla was destined to be a great investment.

And then in late 2019 the stock really started to climb UP, way sooner than I expected it to rise. When I went all in I really thought it would be a few more years until it broke out of it's plateau. I am so glad I pulled the trigger when I did, best decision I've ever made!

Ah well, a great decision made mostly by accident is STILL a great decision!

 

[CHGolferJim]

Also, large forward thinking companies (e.g. Walmart, Target, Costco) will have chargers at their distribution facilities for Suppliers to charge while unloading or while waiting for bay availability.

Had a 13-hour drive yesterday in my 2015 S (including meal/charging stops) between Ft. Wayne IN and Chapel Hill NC. Whew! At some point, I rode by a Walmart-dedicated distribution center for the first time, must have been >100 truck bays just on the two sides I could see from the road, and almost all were occupied. And another 100+ trucks in parking areas. Maybe one day it will be >50% Tesla Semis!

 

[Hock1]

So, how do these megaboys think? Are they looking for a quick 30-40% bump from split and/or credit rating increase, and then cash out? Or do they finally see what you’ve been pounding into our heads the last six months?

I wouldn't trust Soros for a second. I'd wager he has made much more money short, than he has long. Many manipulators, although they are way net short will keep a stack of long shares to facilitate the downward manipulation, when necessary. Susquehana, long known for their shorting "prowess", usually has a sizable amount of long shares to "help' achieve the ultimate direction they are most interested in.

 

[Discoducky]

From my point of view, this add is great news. I am looking forward to buying some call options on FSD when I see right. All this bullshit propaganda will only increase the compression of the spring. The end result of FSD on financials and timing is in no way impacted by these type of FUD.
Thanks to them I see FSD being valued near zero until we hit one of those two scenarios: Level4 somewhere in the world or huge price increase on FSD. And this can happen almost overnight(Not saying it will happen soon, just that the switch will be almost overnight). I would not be surprised if this could 2X-3X in a very short period of time.
Perception of the general population is important long term, but will not impact FSD capabilities and timing.

It is outright fraud, O'Dowd is clearly negligent and the general public does not know that. Tesla should file a 'cease and desist' and immediately file suit. This one should be easy peasy lemon squeezy for the new Elon lawyers.

 

[The Accountant]

Remember all those Megapacks located at Sparks Nevada in July? . . . . . .

. . . .Ring up the Revenues and Profits for Q3! :

 

[AudubonB]

I wouldn't trust Soros for a second. I'd wager he has made much more money short, than he has long. Many manipulators, although they are way net short will keep a stack of long shares to facilitate the downward manipulation, when necessary. Susquehana, long known for their shorting "prowess", usually has a sizable amount of long shares to "help' achieve the ultimate direction they are most interested in.

My recollection is that you have said you used to be an investment professional; if that is the case I find your statement peculiar.
If it were not for the staggering, world-changing outlier, when Quantum Fund famously broke the Bank of England, I would take your wager. “Soros” has become synonymous with “I don’t know anything about this guy but the internet is full of me-too malarkey that - even if only for its longevity - outranks the lies told about Mr Musk for their venality”.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Just drove from SoCal to Texas, and agree most truck drivers on avg rarely go beyond 5 mph over limit.

Is CA-TX a relatively flat stretch once past the Rockies? Truckers in the mid-Atlantic, e.g., I-81 from NY to TN, routinely fly downhill to get momentum up for the uphill stretches. Two-lane stretches are notoriously slow as truckers going 50mph will get out in the passing lane if a truck ahead of them in the right lane is going 48.

 

[jerry33]

It is outright fraud, O'Dowd is clearly negligent and the general public does not know that. Tesla should file a 'cease and desist' and immediately file suit. This one should be easy peasy lemon squeezy for the new Elon lawyers.

While fun to think about, it makes for a real David vs Goliath situation--and that's what people will see. The fraud will get buried and forgotten.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I think a lot of well intentioned people started out with a balanced portfolio containing TSLA, but a split or two here, 10x growth there, and now their portfolio is 95% TSLA

...with the rest in cash to take advantage of days like Friday at the close and coinciding with smear ads? Yes exactly.

I was in solar and larger funds, even some Bonds at one time. But then I started following brother Bob. He introduced me to this thread years ago, but then he lost most of it on TSLA options. So by example, I literally got the best guidance and lessons from my own family.