TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Can we clear out the 3 or 4 obvious/admitted trolls at some point before P&D then the run up to earnings?
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Tesla will be okay, but they’ll only grow 2-3X from today’s price, which is much better than the entire market being down 30%.Same question applies to you, what's your reasoning?
Let's just assume Tesla only gets to 10 million vehicles, half their target of 20 million vehicle target by 2030 because the world is a terrible place for 8 more years.
That would put the P/E somewhere under 20.
Hard to imagine a company growing at 25% per year for the next 8 years has a P/E under 20.
Note: I just took the 50% per year projected growth that Tesla has stated on their earnings calls and cut it in half.
Lots of assumptions here but seems quite reasonable that Tesla outperforms these assumptions.
I've been the organizer/ main volunteer building a mountain bike/ horse/ motorcycle bridge in the woods over the summer. We go out every couple of weeks and put in about 6 hours each so going has been pretty slow, and if you looked at the progress on any single day, the results might feel a bit underwhelming. Felling massive trees, stripping the bark off them, using hand powered grip hoists to pull 4000 pound logs 200 feet across the forest floor. Lifting them up and pulling them across the creek, building landings.... it's a crazy project. Each day we finish and it feels like we've done nothing, but then one day you slide a 4,000 pound, 45 foot long stringer across the creek and... BOOM, it looks a whole lot like a bridge. Then you still need to get a second one across, build the deck, landings, etc etcIm surprised here at the underestimating the Tesla Bot program by quite a few of y'all! Im optimistic
Remember this?
View attachment 857227
I gotta believe between SpaceX, Dojo, FSD......they already HAD the abilities to make this product work potentially instantly during the first AI day on the software side.., but it was more about the capital allocation and focusing on getting the 2 factories into production vs manufacturing something new.
Im prepared to be wowed. This is the best of the best.... making basically a life sized action figure. I picture this as a TOY.... because that's what I believe creating this is going to feel like for Teslas engineers. Childs play for them?
I don't consider the product as a toy, I FULLY see its appeal to the world in terms of manufacturing, help at home, and much much more.
Foreman? Door men? Drivers Ed Instructor?
View attachment 857232
Sure. Remember this?Im surprised here at the underestimating the Tesla Bot program by quite a few of y'all! Im optimistic
Remember this?
Obvi a typo, the ~ was supposed to be a 1
Having started dating again after a divorce a couple of years ago, I’ve heard quite a bit of negativity about Musk (unjustified and exaggerated imho) from women and have had a couple of initial encounters go south in a hurry because of this.
So I think this is a real thing and something for investors to be aware of. ‘This’ being both biased content and skewed recommendations in feeds.
Of course once the street gets all the shares they think they can, they’ll be happy to roll them into a fund and sell them back to retail—for a price—with the press singing their praises.
edit: I also know a few women who are positive about Musk. Alas, they are taken.
$100 is all TSLAQ can afford to spend at this point....If they're only offering $100 for 15 minutes, I don't know how much influence these influencers are going to have. Might as well get a bunch of nobodies on Fivrr.
Obvi a typo, the ~ was supposed to be a 1
Obvi a typo, the ~ was supposed to be a 1
“we specialize at converting the impossible to late" - Elon Musk 2022Even Elon Musk makes mistakes. The difference is that our mistakes are things like forgetting to shave in the morning.
His mistakes are more along the lines of fat-fingering the wrong year into his time travel machine.
View attachment 857280
Until he has Optimus attendants or his snake charging robot you summon won’t make it more than whatever range you left the car with.Even Elon Musk makes mistakes. The difference is that our mistakes are things like forgetting to shave in the morning.
His mistakes are more along the lines of fat-fingering the wrong year into his time travel machine.
View attachment 857280
Excellent point. The last time we saw Optimus, it was a human in spandex. Almost any real hardware actually working is a significant milestone and one that can demonstrate the reality of this endeavor.I've been the organizer/ main volunteer building a mountain bike/ horse/ motorcycle bridge in the woods over the summer. We go out every couple of weeks and put in about 6 hours each so going has been pretty slow, and if you looked at the progress on any single day, the results might feel a bit underwhelming. Felling massive trees, stripping the bark off them, using hand powered grip hoists to pull 4000 pound logs 200 feet across the forest floor. Lifting them up and pulling them across the creek, building landings.... it's a crazy project. Each day we finish and it feels like we've done nothing, but then one day you slide a 4,000 pound, 45 foot long stringer across the creek and... BOOM, it looks a whole lot like a bridge. Then you still need to get a second one across, build the deck, landings, etc etc
I get excited about my project, so I won't bore you with more details. My point here is that milestones on big projects often don't look super impressive. I don't think we're anywhere near a huge milestone and I expect the progress will look from the outside to be a bit underwhelming. That doesn't mean I think there is no progress or that I don't see potential in Optimus. But I'm pretty sure we're just on the first few steps in this process. As such I think we should manage our expectations.
More to the point. We are deep in this and we have a good understanding of what the end is. Lots of far more skeptical people (not even Q people... just normal folks) will be looking at what Tesla shows and they are going to scratch their heads trying to figure out what all the big deal is about. I can hear the criticism already: "This isn't nearly as impressive as the Boston Dynamics robot, it does back flips and Parkour" Explaining the difference between the two and why it's going to be significant will give you the mother of all headaches.
So... yeah I'm chill with my expectations short term. Tesla is building something which may very well upend society. But right now its likely it doesn't look very exciting unless you have an idea of what to look for.
Huge margin increase in just one quarter. Nice!I apologize if this has already been posted, but it should put Your Mom's doubts at China demand/deliveries at ease...
Tesla China expects over 80k deliveries this month: report
Tesla is is reportedly looking to achieve domestic deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles this month.www.teslarati.com
Looking at this video:-I apologize if this has already been posted, but it should put Your Mom's doubts at China demand/deliveries at ease...
Tesla China expects over 80k deliveries this month: report
Tesla is is reportedly looking to achieve domestic deliveries of about 80,000 to 90,000 vehicles this month.www.teslarati.com
You know, I might have some patience for that excuse, except for this:“we specialize at converting the impossible to late" - Elon Musk 2022
You will know this is termed "assortative mating". I am sure you also know that in humans the medical types play the game the whole time.The good old times when you met a women and they knew nothing about Tesla and Musk. One less criterion to verify back then.
Now my first question on speed dating would be: « do you have at least 1000 TSLA shares? ». Then I would want to hear: « we’re talking pre-split or post-split? »
You know, I might have some patience for that excuse, except for this:
Tesla’s Musk minimized the challenges necessary to achieve a future where self-driving cars will become commonplace. “I view it as a solved problem,” said Musk, who compared autonomous cars with elevators that used to require operators, but are now self-service.
According to Musk, autonomous driving at low-speeds, about 10 miles per hour, and high-speed uniform highway travel are not difficult. “Where it gets tricky is traveling at about 10 to 50 miles per hour in urban environments,” he said, where conditions such as children playing are hard to anticipate.
This is from 2015.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Nvidia CEO Jen-Hsun Huang declare self-driving cars “solved”
Problem solved.fortune.com
So, no, we're talking about something that Musk viewed as not only not "impossible" but "solved". I remember quoting him on that that to skeptics when they asked me why I was spending real money on FSD in 2017 when I wouldn't see it any time soon. That means he was not only wrong then, but he's continued to be wrong over and over. If anything, actually solving autonomous driving seems to be further away now than it was in 2015.
So, okay, the problem is really hard. I think we all know that now. But I'd like Elon to stop BS'ing and just admit he hasn't a clue. At this point that is very clear to everyone else, and he's not being an inspirational leader by saying the same wrong thing again and again. It just makes him sound idiotic. At least I don't hear him saying it's a solved problem any more.
And, by the way, I think the real problem for Musk is that there are no first principles to reason from here. AI, software in general, are not dependent in important ways on physics. Sure the hardware has some first principles constraints on energy usage. But the software? Not so you can reason about it's capabilities much.