Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
“I see a path to $4 trillion. “

That aged well.

Wonder how many went on margin after that.
The path Elon sees to $4T market cap is probably a path to $100B - $200B annual net profits in 5 or so years.

Please fully explain how in the year 2028, the fact that Elon owns slightly less of the company because of his sales this week, affects this path?

Do you think every analyst will note will contain: “Normally a P/E of 20 and $200B net profits would yield a $4B market cap, but because Elon sold those shares back in December 2022, we need to remove $2T from the fair market price.”?
 
Last edited:
@Gigapress shows us TSLA has moved similarly to AMZN, for example.


FWIW, while I agree with virtually everything in your post- this point here seems to ignore the folks who've replied to him to point out the fact it's moving similarly to a company with vastly worse financials both current and expected in the future seems to...not support the point folks bringing it up keep trying to make. It's not that "TSLA isn't impacted by Elon because it's moving like Amazon"

It's "TSLA IS impacted by Elon -because it's only moving like much worse performing Amazon"
 
The path Elon sees to $4T market cap is probably a path to $100B - $200B annual net profits in 5 or so years.

Please fully explain how in the year 2028, the fact that Elon owns slightly less of the company because of his sales this week, affects this path?
It's bad look. I know, I know, "he's trying to prop up morale in these tough times"; that's what I told people the evening of. But, it can also be "dude's pumping before dumping." It's getting harder and harder to say it's the former and not the latter.
 
I sometimes discuss TSLA in private forums and its staggering how clueless some 'investors' are. They still think competition is coming, think that Tesla have no tech advantage, think that the company mostly profits because of subsidies and credits... its kinda amusing to read.

Especially after my recent experience with OpenAI's Chatbot, and discovering how natural and convincing AI has become, even on nuanced subjects involving complex situations, I have a little different take:

How do you know the "investors" you're debating TSLA with are not AI bots?

Those who think this is funny or far-fetched need to tell me their reasoning. Because I actually find it more likely than not that more than half of the persistent but generally short debates/conversations taking place in comment sections/forums around the Internet about global warming, solar power, EV adoption and Tesla and related subjects are AI bots, not humans. My reasoning is a disconnect between the amount of time these debaters are willing to spend on what amounts to a debate that has played out the same way thousands of times before (not that humans wouldn't do this, but the frequency of it seems a little "off"). The other reason - I think I'm beginning to detect a certain style that distinguishes some of these debates from a human. It's quite subtle but they seem to be a little too matter of fact, in other words, better than most humans at avoiding personal emotion and this makes them sound more convincing.

Also, the incentive and motivation is there to fund such disinformation to make these false narratives sound reasonable to the masses. I will still spend my time to counter their false narratives, but only because I know that hundreds, sometimes thousands, of innocent humans read the comments. But I really think I'm most often debating a chat bot designed to twist reality.

I think the brave new world of AI is being widely deployed much faster than most are aware.
 
A little bit of perspective: in 2008 x Baidu shares went down from over $400-$100 over 13 months or so. I know firsthand because I was trading Baidu. I panicked and sold at $205 a share although I knew very well that Stockwill find floor at $100 a share. That is precisely what happened subsequently stock went up to $1600 a share by 2012 I left about $7 million profit on the table.
Don’t forget what Tesla‘s capable of doing in terms of share price over the next 2 to 3 years
I was about to add: with or without Elon but I won’t do it
 
FWIW, while I agree with virtually everything in your post- this point here seems to ignore the folks who've replied to him to point out the fact it's moving similarly to a company with vastly worse financials both current and expected in the future seems to...not support the point folks bringing it up keep trying to make. It's not that "TSLA isn't impacted by Elon because it's moving like Amazon"

It's "TSLA IS impacted by Elon -because it's only moving like much worse performing Amazon"
plus, "similarly" is super loosely defined. Maybe the general shapes bear some resemblance. Heck, TSLA and AAPL look similar, but take away 2% here and 3% there and soon we're talking real money.
1671122213842.png

1671122275775.png
 
There is nothing abnormal or unexpected in Mr Musk selling stock. He has no income and has lived off of loans against his holdings, like many in his situation. Repeatedly in the past this thread has speculated if the shorts were trying to get him margin called. Could this have finally happened? Should any investor have anticipated this situation? Yes. Could the bird be part of this? Maybe.
That is why investors may not think Tesla, or any company in a similar situation, qualify as an investment. They are speculative until they prove otherwise. Personally, I have written that I consider Tesla a speculation and what I own is not part of my investment portfolio. The current performance of the company is establishing that it is crossing over to being an investment at the current price.
This is all complicated by Tesla going from being a potential threat to several industries to being an ACTUAL threat, a much more serious situation. 1.5 million cars may not seem like a big deal in a market of 100,000,000 cars, but they were taken in the most profitable part of the market. It’s beginning to hurt the bottom line. Should we be surprised at the vehemence of the current reaction?
 
And very conservative with only 18% growth in 2024. That’s the year the Cybertruck should reach volume production.
You know you're invested in something which valuation is a joke with an analyst comes out with a Strong Buy rating, a PT that 100% higher than today...and their sales growth for 18% in 2024 with a EPS estimate for 2024 that Tesla will easily achieve in 2023. My estimate for 2023 EPS is along the lines of EPS of $10.

Talk about WTF moments. If he's estimating TSLA to be a strong buy on THOSE estimates, I must have TSLA ratings as biggest buy in wall st history.
 
Do you guys think that next CEO compensation packet should be cash instead of equity? I don't know how to make a poll here but would be interesting to see what people think.
Yeah, I feel this might be a good idea. I initially though having Elon's compensation package tied to equity was a good idea. It was based on thinking that he would be holding onto the equities. For a little while at least. "Last to sell" and all that. Boy that didn't pan out well for us investors.

Or just dump Elon. I feel that Tesla could be very successful without him at this point. He can move on to his other interests.
 
Especially after my recent experience with OpenAI's Chatbot, and discovering how natural and convincing AI has become, even on nuanced subjects involving complex situations, I have a little different take:

How do you know the "investors" you're debating TSLA with are not AI bots?
Because some of the things said would make an AI bot blush.
 
FWIW, while I agree with virtually everything in your post- this point here seems to ignore the folks who've replied to him to point out the fact it's moving similarly to a company with vastly worse financials both current and expected in the future seems to...not support the point folks bringing it up keep trying to make. It's not that "TSLA isn't impacted by Elon because it's moving like Amazon"

It's "TSLA IS impacted by Elon -because it's only moving like much worse performing Amazon"
Tsla was moving more like APPL until the Twitter drama. Then it moved like Amazon.