That’s his Q3 number, his Q4 China number is 133K.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
"I don’t want an unhinged, Qanon, highly political freak show as CEO of a company I’m invested in."
I pride myself on being willing to hear all reasonable counterpoints to the echo chamber of how amazing Tesla is. But with this message @Webeevdrivers, you've finally broken me down and earned my rare exercise of the ignore feature. Good luck.
I pride myself on being willing to hear all reasonable counterpoints to the echo chamber of how amazing Tesla is. But with this message @Webeevdrivers, you've finally broken me down and earned my rare exercise of the ignore feature. Good luck.
No, it wouldn't be stepping down. 25 is greater than 3. By a lot.
insaneoctane
Well-Known Member
Oh, the irony of being passed by Exxon Mobil. This really must be a simulation.Well, that's done it - passed by Johnson & Johnson.
Can't get much worse can it? Oh wait, next coming up the outside is... Exxon Mobil. ARGGGG!!
I'm a glass-half-full person. All I can say is, our 2023 YTD numbers will be awesome!
View attachment 887133
thanks. (deleted post.. was looking at bottom without expanding)No, you read the wrong line
Seeing how negative sentiment is, I'm starting have serious doubt about P&D having any positive effect.
If Elon is going to stick to this "not my problem" attitude, we're gonna have to wait at least a year before the stock is completely decoupled from his personal affairs. Yes, the forward P:E is 25 now, but in a bear market, people prefer to take a "wait and see" approach instead of paying upfront for future growth. Having an inspiring leader surely compels people to take more risks.
Still this is his public estimate from Dec 13th. (So not the latest) Numbers in patron would be latest(but not publicly available)
We are at 108K with todays insurance data. (week 40-50... 2 more weeks)
So 133K-108K = 25K for last 2 weeks or 12.5K/week to meet his numbers ...
This is my more detailed long term take on the demand situation in China.
Any short term issue can be addressed by increasing exports and opening new markets, when thinking long term we need to factor in all long term factors.
Cutting straight to the punch line, in 5 years time Tesla might be the only significant foreign car maker selling significant volumes of overseas designed EVs in China. Most others may simply be a badge on a Chinese designed and built car, almost identical to a locally Chinese produced model, Honda has already gone down that route.
In the video below Elliott visits the town where is wife's parents live, where he used to see lots of BMWs and Audis, he now sees lots of Tesla's.
The same video mentions that a cheaper Tesla will sell very well in China.
The short term factors are:-
The Chinese have some preference for a locally designed and built Chinese brand car, especially when the foreign car doesn't have better, specs, features and software.
BYD sells a lot of hybrids, the BYD pure EV production is growing rapidly but at some stage Chinese sales of hybrids are going to dwindle rapidly.
Tesla's EV margins are way better than BYDs
Short term all Tesla needs to do is match local supply to local demand and export the rest, then introduce cheaper models where possible.
Shanghai is view as an export hub, the right mix of exports and local sale sis what is needed. Asia pacific markets are closer to Chinese with less time need for logistics a RORO may only be able to complete 1 trip per quarter to Europe but may be able to do 2 trips to the Asia Pacific.
A foreign brand will always have some aura of luxury, especially when it has superior specs and software.
Market saturation tends to be self-correcting, economies improve, market sizes grow, cars become more affordable, due to increased incomes, and lower prices.
Any short term issue can be addressed by increasing exports and opening new markets, when thinking long term we need to factor in all long term factors.
Cutting straight to the punch line, in 5 years time Tesla might be the only significant foreign car maker selling significant volumes of overseas designed EVs in China. Most others may simply be a badge on a Chinese designed and built car, almost identical to a locally Chinese produced model, Honda has already gone down that route.
In the video below Elliott visits the town where is wife's parents live, where he used to see lots of BMWs and Audis, he now sees lots of Tesla's.
The same video mentions that a cheaper Tesla will sell very well in China.
The short term factors are:-
- Phasing out of hybrid subsidies - lot of hybrids still being sold.
- Past success,- many Teslas on the road in China,
- Chinese budgets, need for a cheaper car, state of the Chinese economy.
The Chinese have some preference for a locally designed and built Chinese brand car, especially when the foreign car doesn't have better, specs, features and software.
BYD sells a lot of hybrids, the BYD pure EV production is growing rapidly but at some stage Chinese sales of hybrids are going to dwindle rapidly.
Tesla's EV margins are way better than BYDs
Short term all Tesla needs to do is match local supply to local demand and export the rest, then introduce cheaper models where possible.
Shanghai is view as an export hub, the right mix of exports and local sale sis what is needed. Asia pacific markets are closer to Chinese with less time need for logistics a RORO may only be able to complete 1 trip per quarter to Europe but may be able to do 2 trips to the Asia Pacific.
A foreign brand will always have some aura of luxury, especially when it has superior specs and software.
Market saturation tends to be self-correcting, economies improve, market sizes grow, cars become more affordable, due to increased incomes, and lower prices.
I've just looked at what 2 of those folks are up to on TWTR and they also seem to find the current state of affair troubling:
Fact Checking also retweeted GB's response pointing out flaws in Elon's Fed rate argument.
But yes, I find it sad that instead of rallying behind Elon, we're having to fight among ourselves.
Fact Checking I still respect, but Karen has literally gone off the rails IMHO. And that's a shame as she used to have such wonderful posts in this forum as illustrated in posts of particular merit.
Sigh...
navguy12
Active Member
OT: my friend is driving his Chevy Bolt (he is waiting for CyberTruck) back to his home in the Detroit MI area from my place in Ottawa ON; he has counted nine (9) transport car carriers full of Tesla Model 3s heading eastbound while he heads westbound, all within the last 60 minutes (he is west of Toronto right now). I assume each one carries eight cars (?), so getting close to at least 75 TM3s heading towards new owners before years end.Another day....another 5% down, thank goodness for the TMC support group
I am just pissed that Chicken Little was right about the $140 PT.
Back to the show.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
I've been in this game long enough to tell you the problem with this kind of thinking is that it presumes the ability to identify the top of the market, or at least when a decline will turn into a major decline. Essentially, you are talking about trying to time the market. Let's look at the current situation and the tech bubble of Y2K for examples.
In 1995 it was widely reported that the bull market was long in the tooth and tech was wildly over-valued. Yet the end of outsized returns didn't happen until over 5 years later. It was common for the market to take 10% drops that looked like it was the end of the bull market but people who sold the top tech stocks of the day on those drops often lost out on huge gains in following weeks and doubling or quadrupling of value over the next several years. Those who held stocks like Microsoft, Cisco and a host of others did very well until the bubble burst in 2000.
In 2019 many thought the decade long bull market was over-extended and the bottom could fall out at any time. TSLA was declining almost every day. No one in their right mind would buy TSLA for $180 when it just kept going down and media reports showed it to be wildly over-valued. Right? Those who bought it in a decade old bull market at that time, and held it, would be holding shares today at a cost basis of $12/share.
It's impossible to say in advance with any reliability just how long a bull market can go on and whether or not any correction along the way is the end or just the beginning of a new bull run. Because I have primarily invested in growth stock through my investing career, and these stocks can become intrinsically much more valuable in very short periods of time (not the share price, the actual earnings potential and positioning of the company), I know how missing out on key growth periods of a company can leave one on the sidelines watching the shares climb out of reach. And that's why buying and holding growth is more profitable than trying to time the market. All the "would have", "could have" and "should haves" will not change that basic principle. That's why orphaned accounts of dead brokerage clients have higher returns than those who regularly log into their account and adjust holdings based upon market outlook, analyst's ratings and recent company news.
I know in hindsight it's easy to say you should have done it differently but the old saying "hindsight is 20/20" is applicable here. The reason holding is better is because no one can call market tops and bottoms or the length of bear markets with any consistency. If you want to capture all the growth a particular company realizes, you really need to stay in and stay steady. This is particularly true in an account that is not tax-deferred.
Bad china numbers today didnt help. Any idea whats the analyst consensus for q4 deliveries?
Fast approaching my cost basis and any gains have almost been wiped out. Easier for those with much lower cost basis to hold. Would have loved to at least see some insight from the CEO about the reasons for the price dip. Yes, macro and china demand fears has caused a lot of the drop but is it that difficult for a genius to comprehend that at least a 10% (likely more) drop is due to his share sales and twitter saga?
Fast approaching my cost basis and any gains have almost been wiped out. Easier for those with much lower cost basis to hold. Would have loved to at least see some insight from the CEO about the reasons for the price dip. Yes, macro and china demand fears has caused a lot of the drop but is it that difficult for a genius to comprehend that at least a 10% (likely more) drop is due to his share sales and twitter saga?
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
No it will not be a one-time event. (Edit: I see you meant negative to positive one time. Still disagree with the 40-50% part.)
GAAP earnings in the first three quarters of 2022 have been $8.9B which is already 61% more than $5.5B. If they end up at around $14B with Q4, that’s over 150% growth vs 2021.
Earnings next year are probably going to be at least $25B if the year is a train wreck which would be 80% growth.
Eventually the operating leverage driving this will hit diminishing returns and earnings growth rate will approximately match the revenue growth rate, but that won’t be true until about 2024 or 2025. All of this leaves out FSD hypothetically causing a step change in profits, of course.
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A one-time event? How on earth did you come to that conclusion?
Earnings growth in 2021 was from just one factory ramping production and constant reduction in COGS and operating efficiencies. What do you think is happening right now with Austin/Berlin. You do get that the biggest headwind from those two factories ramping is now behind Tesla right? Do you understand what's about to happen with with operating margins and net income now that they're past the inefficient/costly part of ramping volume?
Krugerrand
Meow
We don’t have to do anything. It’s a choice. I consciously continue to choose to support the man, flaws and all.
How long?
As previously noted.
128.63 next train stop for Tesla.
According to Forbes’ analysis of US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) data, Musk sold 22 million Tesla shares in a single week.
What Musk is attempting to accomplish at Tesla is still unclear. Elon Musk would leave his position as CEO of Tesla, according to a info that surfaced in recent days.
Tom Zhu Xiaotong, who is currently Tesla China’s director, will become the company’s CEO.
BizChina
As previously noted.
128.63 next train stop for Tesla.
According to Forbes’ analysis of US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) data, Musk sold 22 million Tesla shares in a single week.
What Musk is attempting to accomplish at Tesla is still unclear. Elon Musk would leave his position as CEO of Tesla, according to a info that surfaced in recent days.
Tom Zhu Xiaotong, who is currently Tesla China’s director, will become the company’s CEO.
BizChina
Nice! Last weekend I gave it a lot of thought and decided not to cancel. $50k, not $250k. However things are collapsing faster than I thought possible. There should be a price at which it would be crazy to not cancel and buy more TSLA. How long to get your deposit back?I cancelled my Founders Roadster Reservation yesterday.... to buy more TSLA. I have a good feeling about this.
Also picked up the new beast today. What a day!
In that vein:
Jun 9, 2021 "Exactly. Only time I sell Tesla stock is when my stock options are expiring & I have no choice."
With initial sales & decision, he had a choice; after that, he was on the hook.
But it's the same person who also said :
"When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor."
"I was at a lunch with Munger in 2009 where he told the whole table all the ways Tesla would fail. Made me quite sad, but I told him I agreed with all those reasons & that we would probably die, but it was worth trying anyway."
Tesla almost killed SpaceX, I doubt this situation parallels that one.
I 100% agree on the 2nd sentence. Unfortunately what I worry about isnt the company. It is the public perception. Its like Elon says lets have a party and no one but his family shows up. He says what the hell where is everyone. Family needs to not be afraid to tell him that you have pissed off all the people that used to come to your parties.
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