Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Well, I did back in 2013, I was well below the $300,000 limit I kind of disagree with the monthly subscription will lower buying FSD part because it's always possible to come up with the lump sum if you try hard enough (and want it badly enough) but having monthly payments is what really gets you into trouble. I have to want something really badly to go for a subscription.

Since its expensive and a subscription without commitments is available, I expect FSD Curious to try subscription for a month and then decide whether to buy FSD or not.

Since FSD bought with the vehicle and later cost the same, in any case, that won't matter for federal credit limits.

 

[Discoducky]

As I skim through the myriad of posts on this thread I'm constantly reminded of a simple key objective fact that can dismiss/dismantle all the FUD.

1. NO company currently makes money (net revenue) selling BEVs (and don't say Polestar, maybe next quarter if/when they scale).

Not only does Tesla make profit/car, the profits are huge and growing as they scale to 2m+/year runrate, they dominate the world's largest auto markets. Therefore, whenever Tesla lowers prices, that signals to other manufacturers they will lose more money per car sold as they will need to lower their prices to keep current market share. As Tesla continues to make money, they continue to lose more and that can only go on for so many quarters.

That's it, one key simple objective fact, everything flows from this.

All this other handwringing is futile/moot.

And, I predict, TE will demonstrate a similar market dynamic as they scale where other manufacturers will need to drop prices to the point of negative net revenue as Tesla scale saturates the markets worldwide.

The only points that can be discussed is this IMO:

1. Can any company out innovate Tesla?
2. Can any company scale BEV faster?

I think not, as they can't acquire the talent necessary to achieve that goal.

 

[GOVA]

Any news regarding that mid-January radar implementation and/or partially camouflaged model 3s?

 

[elasalle]

China stocks like BABA,JD showing some big gains today…
.. if unwinding the zero covid policy was an issue, I don't think these names would be up ...

 

[dc_h]

Hmmmmmm to sell more cars ? Just a hunch.

BYD Seal is beating Tesla on price. It is likely this won't be the last price discounting.

 

[Todd Burch]

But, as Tesla needs to reduce prices on cars (which they will), thereby lowering margins, they will need to increase production & deliveries to make up for the lower prices & margins.

We need a few factories in construction for Gen3, and IMHO, they need to start building those factories THIS year in 2023 in order to get ready. OR, we will likely see the 50% production growth per year decline for a few years.

Tesla E-N-E-R-G-Y.

This will also help drop the narrative that Tesla is just a car company.

Is Tesla a car company? Yes. Is it *just* a car company? No.

 

[thx1139]

Sign the Petition

Fix the Inflation Reduction Act EV Tax Credit

www.change.org

crossed 25K.
Please add your voice if you haven't already ...

And send an email to the IRS. Dont appear as a Tesla fanboy. Stick to the core issues more efficient cars (dont be brand specific) should be rewarded and inefficient PHEV shoudnt be rewarded. ChatGPT can be really helpful.

 

[The Accountant]

“It’s early 1900’s. Two competing shoe companies want to expand their market reach.
So they each send their top sales guy to a third world country to scout out the potential.

After a day or so, Salesman #1 finds a telegraph office and types out:
‘Research complete. Stop. Situation hopeless. Stop. No one wears shoes here'.

Salesman #2 does his research and heads to the same telegraph office. He types out this message to his boss:
‘Research complete. Stop. Incredible opportunity. Stop. No one wears shoes here'.

Research Complete. Stop. Tesla has no compact car in China. Stop. Situation hopeless Incredible Opportunity.
Patience.

Edit: Of course, I am not equating China to a third world country - in case that needs to be clarified.

 

[Singuy]

About this no margin.

Tesla pretty much put a stop to order books from the last increase in price plus creeping up interest rates. So very few cars from Q3(if any) revenue was being recognized post last price increase. They also reduced the incoming orders by taking away the LR 3, probably to maximize Y production for the remainder of the quarter as a lot of the back log were Ys. With Berlin/Texas being a drag for q3, they would have hit 30% if they were not a drag, however even with the small number of cars they produced, those production plants were already at POSITIVE operating margins! (per Zach" Note that while small and growing, each car we build in Austin and Berlin is contributing positively to profitability."

Another headwind for Q3 margins was foreign exchange, which Q4 is a tailwind for. So you see Tesla barely sold any cars at the highest max price on the website, so a reduction in price after their anti-selling last price increase really does very little in a negative way to their margins while Berlin/Texas will be contributing massively to better margins going forward.

 

[Unpilot]

Since people (I may have been one of them) have posted Peter Zeihan videos here before, thought I'd alert you to one of the worse examples of anti-EV and anti-TSLA FUD I've had the misfortune to witness in a loooong time. He posts daily videos and today's was a doozy. He literally makes up crap (like Teslas aren't bought as a primary vehicle, but instead as a 3rd or 4th luxury status vehicle) and no worldwide commodity has doubled in volume over ten years (whereas lithium has done 2x in a year and 3x in five years recently). He even pulls out the trope that EVs are more carbon intensive. Anyways, sad to see, and it makes the rest of his analysis pretty suspect.

I posted the same video...it got moved to Fighting FUD

 

[cliff harris]

Any news regarding that mid-January radar implementation and/or partially camouflaged model 3s?

Not yet, but I am watching very carefully for whats coming. There is definitely something about to change, and I'm guessing the model 3 refresh will be soon, and not just be cosmetic. If I had to guess, we are about to see a shorter range, lower performance and much cheaper model 3.

That would explain why Tesla are not so concerned about the model Y and the IRA. The 3/Y have been positioned too closely for too long. They want the 3 as entry level, Y as mid, S/X as top end. Perhaps they expect a LOT of IRA-compliant 3 sales to begin?

 

[trayloader]

Recession?

Well at least for us the projection is POSITIVE. We very well might have a mild to non existent recession here in Germany as of todays news.
And we have it bad here, which in return could mean a much more positive outlook for the US.

 

[JRP3]

This shouldn't come from selling the hardware, but from trading the energy using Autobidder.

Is it unique software, do other companies have similar, or could they develop it?

 

[FSDtester#1]

Nice colors today, in the sky I mean

 

[JupiterMan]

Is it unique software, do other companies have similar, or could they develop it?

I too would like to understand more.

• how is it monetised? up front cost, subscription, or % of savings?
  
  
• can it be sold as standalone software to get $, or is it simply linked to the hardware to increase those hardware sales?

 

[elasalle]

Is it unique software, do other companies have similar, or could they develop it?

When Pie is getting bigger does competition matter too much?

Renewable Energy transition is similar to automobile transition in that regard ...

China is the biggest/baddest competition, but they will likely not be used to full extent by Western countries ... cheers!!

 

[zach_]

Not yet, but I am watching very carefully for whats coming. There is definitely something about to change, and I'm guessing the model 3 refresh will be soon, and not just be cosmetic. If I had to guess, we are about to see a shorter range, lower performance and much cheaper model 3.

That would explain why Tesla are not so concerned about the model Y and the IRA. The 3/Y have been positioned too closely for too long. They want the 3 as entry level, Y as mid, S/X as top end. Perhaps they expect a LOT of IRA-compliant 3 sales to begin?

I also feel something is brewing. Interestingly the vehicle list submitted for the IRA for Tesla does not include the performance model 3, but does include the long range which isn't for sale right now. Could the performance model 3 be going away, and instead the long range is effectively the "performance" model?

Edit: Actually maybe I misinterpreted this somewhat. It could just be that Tesla new the performance model 3 wouldn't qualify so they didn't include it (where as they thought the 5 seat Y would). Though even still, hard to see the performance 3 coming in at under 55k, so maybe they do just drop it?

 

[capster]

Online OCR also free FTW! As in, "Feel free" to copy'n'paste this to ur nearest Congress Critter!

View attachment 892172

Dear IRS,​

​

I am writing to express my frustration and distrust regarding the new tax incentive for electric vehicles. It is unacceptable that the incentive includes plug-in hybrids, such as the 22 mpg Jeep Wrangler, while excluding the most popular electric vehicle in the world, the Tesla Model Y.​

​

As a taxpayer and a concerned citizen, I believe that incentives should be directed towards promoting they use of the most efficient and environmentally-friendly vehicles. The inclusion of a vehicle with such low fuel efficiency as the Jeep Wrangler undermines the purpose of the incentive and calls into question the motivations behind its design.​

​

I urge the IRS to reconsider this decision and ensure that the tax incentive is fairly applied to all electric vehicles, including the Tesla Model Y.​

​

Sincerely,​

​

[Your name]​

I see what you did there: You didn’t state your country of citizenship (you are Canadian, iirc).

Also, it might be worthwhile if someone here would find a statement of purpose in the "Inflation Reduction Act" (why isn’t there an airquote emoji?) to quote.

Ideally it would say something about effeciency and developing a strong EV ecosystem and market.

That way we wouldn’t need to say things (or only things) like “I believe the incentives should be directed…" We could say "This is the stated intent of the law and your rules could better help achieve this intent by categorizing the Tesla Model Y as an SUV (which it it is based on its utility, e.g. it’s cargo capacity and handling capabilities). "

 

[traxila]

Fremont and Shanghai numbers probably too low.

Shanghai already had two months of 87.7k and 88.6k production on Oct and Nov. With 89k per month at Shanghai (no growth scenario), production of 900k would imply 8 weeks of downtime, almost as much as in ‘22.

Also Fremont is probably in the low 140s per quarter already which is around 570k annualized. This can be estimated based on known Chinese production and estimated production from Germany and Texas. The nominal capacity at Fremont per Tesla’s Q3 report is 650k.

If these ~150k worth of adjustments are made then the conservative base case where the growth all comes from modest improvements in Berlin and Austin, then the total estimate comes to 2.2M.

I was low balling.

If macros hold up we have a shot at 60%, but don't want to say that cause people might get crazy.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I posted the same video...it got moved to Fighting FUD

Didn't know that thread existed. Maybe all thread participants here should review that thread from time to time, pick a FUD target, and push back on it on Twitter, Youtube, etc. as community service

I wrote a twitter thread on the Zeihan video today which I think will get traction, as well as a long YouTube comment (but I was too late on YouTube since it already had 1000 comments).