Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

Are you implying that the ARK Invest Wright's Law chart/data he referenced isn't showing a cumulative doubling, or, just correcting how I presented it? (which I now realize was misstated, thanks)

Ark is correct. Connecting the Dots is incorrect. At roughly 5:25 in the video he states “Let’s assume LFP production doubles every two years.” He then proceeds to apply Wright’s law. Wright’s Law does not apply against a doubling of production. It only applies to a doubling of CUMULATIVE production.

 

[space_s3x]

California

CNCDA Q42022 report was published today
Tesla had the top two selling vehicles in 2022. Growing by 54.2% over 2021.

 

[MC3OZ]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

View attachment 904432

Making batteries last longer is more optimal than recycling, for energy storage and Robotaxis. Recycling, manufacturing, transport and installation costs are avoided/delayed.

But those longer lasting batteries can still be recycled, just recycled less frequently.

 

[2daMoon]

Ark is correct. Connecting the Dots is incorrect. At roughly 5:25 in the video he states “Let’s assume LFP production doubles every two years.” He then proceeds to apply Wright’s law. Wright’s Law does not apply against a doubling of production. It only applies to a doubling of CUMULATIVE production.

ARK's middle chart of the three I posted shows the cumulative doubling period as being less than 2 years in 2021 and on a downtrend.

So, the way he stated it was inaccurate, but his concept is supported by the data, right?

 

[ls7corvete]

Tesla can make billion mile packs and recycling will still be relevant.

• Tesla buys third party cells from other manufacturers and will for some time.
• Accidents happen and damaged packs will likely need to be recycled.
• Rust, floods, road salts, idiots who drive into the lake… water damage is bad.
• Testing and quality control only go so far and some packs will fail.
• Other car makers exist for the moment. Likely other battery makers will exist for a long time.
• Someone will need to be prepared to recycle Tesla’s packs until they get that billion mile pack complete.

The bigger question in my mind is what happens to the vehicle husk?

If the battery lasts millions of miles, we’re going to have lots of vehicles with completely blown out interiors and trashed paint. Do we get specialized restorers who tear down and rehabilitate old Teslas? Seems like a natural role for mechanics to slide into once ICE vehicle repairs becomes obsolete. Suspension, seats, body work, will all need some love.

You are forgetting production waste, which outnumbers cells from cars right now. Though this is getting OT.

 

[kbM3]

ARK's middle chart of the three I posted shows the cumulative doubling period as being less than 2 years in 2021 and on a downtrend.

So, what he stated was inaccurate, but his concept is correct then, right?

View attachment 904446​

His concept was originally that Megapacks will have negative cost.

That concept is incorrect.

if you’re asking if it’s possible LFP cells cost < $35 / kWh to produce by 2030, I would say it’s possible, but I would have a lot of trouble believing the credits would then remain in place.

 

[Ogre]

His concept was originally that Megapacks will have negative cost.

That concept is incorrect.

if you’re asking if it’s possible LFP cells cost < $35 / kWh to produce by 2030, I would say it’s possible, but I would have a lot of trouble believing the credits would then remain in place.

CtD gets points for creativity but is not skeptical enough for his own good. He tends to run with the most generous interpretation and not question sources.

When I questioned him about his post where he spotted “2 new designs leaked”, he replied by telling me Musk was trolling us with a video that looks like a 9 month old video.

When I catch someone blatantly ignoring legit skepticism, it makes it hard to take anything they say seriously.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622894087891304448

 

[2daMoon]

His concept was originally that Megapacks will have negative cost.

That concept is incorrect.

if you’re asking if it’s possible LFP cells cost < $35 / kWh to produce by 2030, I would say it’s possible, but I would have a lot of trouble believing the credits would then remain in place.

Okay, but we're back to picking nits again. Let's keep the conversation based upon what is factual, right now. (and not Clinton's definition of IS)

If the subsidy as currently written covers the cost of the cells and, if at some point this actually puts additional money in Tesla's pocket, this amount could be counted toward offsetting the manufacturing costs of all the other bits in the Megapack that aren't cells.

That would substantially reduce the overall Megapack cost to manufacture, would it not?

How close to zero would that be? Only Tesla knows. I'd speculate that cells make up the lion's share of the Megapack's cost to manufacture. Wouldn't you?

Connecting the Dots may be slightly sensationalizing this, but honestly, as long as the IRA is applicable as currently written, the idea that the cost to produce will allow for an amazing profit margin isn't way out there.

If Megapack were being sold with above 90% or 95% profit after subsidies, and has residual support income down the road, I'd not be picking nits in order to call this premise "wrong."

Tesla should be laughing all the way to the bank. (and so should we)

 

[dhanson865]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

View attachment 904432

Tesla is making cells from scratch and also using first use cells from other manufacturers (Panasonic and such).

Apple, Samsung, etc make phones with small batteries at a grand scale that need to be recycled and provide materials for the cells Tesla and such make for cars.

Almost every other car maker that makes EVs is not doing as good of a job as Tesla so those will need recycling also.

There is no contradiction here. Not everyone is doing the same thing. Recycling is needed for all the old school batteries being spit out non stop by those with no desire to follow Jeff's advice. The disconnect is that not everyone will do the right thing.

 

[MartinAustin]

So Jeff believes in making the right chemistry for 50-100 year lasting batteries with no recycling, but doesn't that contradict what JB is doing with Redwood Materials and the partnership with Tesla? Eventually, there would be no need for Redwood or companies like that then, but JB has this philosophy of mining once for all the material needed and then creating a circled economy.

So is recycling the middle man here and the right approach is Jeff's? Seems like two different ways of addressing the same problem...which is the better path?

View attachment 904432

Recycling is a right and just course of action for a great many materials, not just batteries. It's essential to avoid generating landfill trash

 

[Ogre]

Connecting the Dots may be slightly sensationalizing this, but honestly, as long as the IRA is applicable as currently written, the idea that the cost to produce will allow for an amazing profit margin isn't way out there.

I am hugely optimistic about Megapack and Tesla energy. I think most of the bullish “skeptics” (like James Stephenson) are likewise.

This is literally the difference between people saying “Tesla Energy is going to be very profitable for Tesla” and people saying “OMG IT’S RAINING MONEY!!!!”

Fundamentally, the “worst case“ here is pretty damned good. It’s just a matter of some of us wanting to see what the actual numbers look like rather than making a bunch of fairly blind speculation based on sketchy math and questionable sources. Maybe it will rain money… I just want to see some clouds and a few pennies falling first.

 

[bkp_duke]

Recycling is a right and just course of action for a great many materials, not just batteries. It's essential to avoid generating landfill trash

Counterpoint: Elon says that the best possible source of raw materials for new batteries . . . is old batteries.

 

[Nocturnal]

The powers that be are going to have to cave and let the stock break $200 sooner or later. I assume they were hoping for bad news today.

 

[2daMoon]

The powers that be are going to have to cave and let the stock break $200 sooner or later. I assume they were hoping for bad news today.

... and the bad news is, there wasn't any.

I say enjoy the chlorophyll while it lasts!

 

[Max Plaid]

This needs to continue being the case after whatever happens with the IRA tax incentives when the Treasury provides guidance, but so far the price cuts + tax incentives are working their magic domestically. It's not that there will ever be no demand, the question is what is the demand at what price.

European inventory looks far too high but who knows what those numbers represent in terms of physical vehicles. But Europe is being hit worse by inflation etc than North America.

For what it's worth, EU sales are roughly +1000% yoy compared to January 2023 2022*, ships arriving earlier, wave unwinding, GF4 ramping-up

*Edit: January 2022, of course...

 

[jerry33]

Recycling is a right and just course of action for a great many materials, not just batteries. It's essential to avoid generating landfill trash

It doesn't help when the city does not replace the burnt down recycling plant and now recycles almost nothing compared to when the plant was in operation. (and they've had a few years to replace it by now).

 

[chrsk]

Nasdaq up 2%+, Sp500 up 1,29% and Tesla up 1,05%.

We first visited this level 2.2, even good macros have not helped breaking 200. Not sure what can help us through 200 at this point.

 

[Ogre]

The powers that be are going to have to cave and let the stock break $200 sooner or later. I assume they were hoping for bad news today.

Only 2 more days like this before we breech 200.
Only (196*1.01^76 = $417) 76 more days like this before we hit the ATH.

If we were flirting with $250 before March 1st it would be quite nice for absorbing the typical post-event drop and subsequent run into summer. I’m not asking for much, really.

 

[Krugerrand]

I will only attend said summit if there’s a polka bar included in the schedule

I’ll attend if nobody else does.

 

[Carl Raymond]

I’ll post Dillon’s news when the next episode drops. Last episode was 23 hrs ago.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1622942758963912708