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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I looked at twitter for a bit on the arguments between the usual Tesla folks - Gary, Whole Mars, Farzad, and a bunch of other usual suspects, and advertising seems to be the hot topic. While no one directly brought up advertising the conference call, there was a question around Elasticity of demand, which in layman's speak is whether Tesla was seeing an increase in order rate that corresponded with the drop in prices. Of course Elon shot this down with a terse Order rate is greater than production.

There are a lot of people who believe advertising is not needed and I am in this camp too. I also agree that Tesla is doing a lot of marketing, which is distinct from advertising as our resident marketing prof @unk45 has mentioned multiple times. I fully agree with this.

So my question to the professor, or anyone else who cares to chime in is - If you think that Tesla could do something, anything at all (and that includes advertising) to increase demand at the current price point, what could that be. Of course it is not possible to say that without Tesla's proprietary data, so if you want to know a few things about the internal metrics that Tesla tracks, what data points would you be most curious about?
I do both ways on this. TV advertising is a fools errand and not to be an agist...but it's geared to the boomers. Maybe Tesla needs to be advertising to them maybe not. MY parents bought a Y because they tried my 3 and they liked it. Road trips still scare them but otherwise it's a marvel to them. I am not in the advertising field, but the only avenue I agree with Gary is they need to take a play out of Volvo's playbook and basically highlight you cannot buy a safer car, You cannot buy a more American car, And if they really wanted to shame everyone else they could easily make a long form commercial on how terrible it is to travel in any EV not a Tesla.

Elon has mentioned advertising in only an educational format, Charging is the one area people still think its a commuter car. They need to highlight people like myself that have gone from white knuckling 8 hour drives and showing up exhausted, to showing up in 9.5 hours a sociable person. If I have to hear another person from my region say the phrase....I won't buy one unless I can drive 500 miles without stopping...my midwesterners need to drink more water.
 
Elon should just have Tesla advertise on Twitter and measure the result in real time, then determine if it's a good idea. The only basic message Tesla needs to get out is the new price change and the federal tax credit.
I am not sure how much twitter helps, as Elon is the most followed there, and even if you're not following him, the timeline is sure to show his tweets as they tend to be the most popular.

If its worth doing ads, targeted ads at those who have searched for Tesla could be the highest ROI, like say on the ad words ecosystem or an other place where you can target well heeled gen X or boomer folks (FB comes to mind).

But my 2 cents is, I am not even sure Tesla has a social media presence outside of twitter. They could organically post some videos and increase engagement on Tik Tok, Insta, snapchat etc. May be run some contests and offer swag to the winners, while at it. I am not on those platforms, so have no idea if Tesla does anything there at all. Perhaps a way to increase awareness without advertising?

Also, there was the referral program sometime ago, but that was massively gamed, with a few influencers winning roadsters. The current one they are running barely seems to register. May be something that gets a bit more traction?

The most memorable thing for me was the original roadster getting launched to Mars. I still am amazed and pause anytime i see the image. Is there a way to recreate that magic?

screen-shot-2018-02-08-at-12-07-40-pm-1-1.jpg
 
The most memorable thing for me was the original roadster getting launched to Mars. I still am amazed and pause anytime i see the image. Is there a way to recreate that magic?


I mean... Roadster 2 launched by Starship seems the obvious choice....


Just to be pedantic though- the original car wasn't launched to Mars- it was launched to a heliocentric orbit...that orbit crosses the orbit of Mars, but at a lower inclination so it can't ever meet the planet-(and lacked any upper stage controls to enter orbit of or land on mars even if it was going to ever get near it) - instead it'll just keep circling the sun
 
I love when she does this. Let’s see if once again she can call the top in half the time.
Occurs to me she could set up a Tesla Trader's fund.

All it does is trade in and out of Tesla and keeps the money in T-Bills when it's not in TSLA.

Her Tesla trades have been spot on, if she just hadn't bought a bag of stocks that tanked when she's not in Tesla, she'd probably be doing exceptionally well.
 
As Tesla is not spending any capital expenses on factories anymore, how can this figure be going up? ^^
What on earth gives you the idea Tesla is not building factories anymore?
  • Giga Texas is still massively under construction. They are building a cathode factory and the Cybertruck production line.
  • Tesla is building a Megafactory in China.
  • Berlin ramp up is not complete, they are still massively expanding and finishing that project.
  • Mexico... remember Mexico?
  • They are building a lithium refining factory in Corpus Christi (h/t @MC3OZ)
  • Tesla is constantly expanding manufacturing capacity.
  • Also — Superchargers are actually capital expenditures.
You should know better than post GJ tripe.
 
An interesting theory:

As Tesla is not spending any capital expenses on factories anymore, how can this figure be going up? ^^
Payments for manufacturing equipment are often deferred until it has been installed and running for sometime.

There is a lot of construction and new equipment installation happening at Austin... I assume Berlin is similar.. I have no idea what is going on at Sparks.

What is also different at present is ramp costs due to 4680. Each successive 4680 ramp will be easier, smoother, cheaper and faster, but the time interval between 4680 ramps may reduce.

That is what I expect from here on across the entire business, more capex, but faster ramps... Ramps might always be a drag on margins, but the ramps causing the drag will change over time.

When Tesla does something new like CT, Gen3, or Lithium refining, the first ramp may hit some issues.
 
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An interesting theory:

As Tesla is not spending any capital expenses on factories anymore, how can this figure be going up? ^^
Crazy to see you a long timer fall for this GJ nonsense. There is a ton still happening. Berlin ramping up, Austin cyber truck tooling, 4680 ramp, Lathrop ramp, Shanghai mega factory ramp, Corpus Christi refining plant, but may not be significant, along with Mexico GF. Lots of irons in the fire.
 
Crazy to see you a long timer fall for this GJ nonsense. There is a ton still happening. Berlin ramping up, Austin cyber truck tooling, 4680 ramp, Lathrop ramp, Shanghai mega factory ramp, Corpus Christi refining plant, but may not be significant, along with Mexico GF. Lots of irons in the fire.

Debt ceiling too.

(I think this means you can boot me out because I mentioned something government related, right?)
 
I do both ways on this. TV advertising is a fools errand and not to be an agist...but it's geared to the boomers. Maybe Tesla needs to be advertising to them maybe not. MY parents bought a Y because they tried my 3 and they liked it. Road trips still scare them but otherwise it's a marvel to them. I am not in the advertising field, but the only avenue I agree with Gary is they need to take a play out of Volvo's playbook and basically highlight you cannot buy a safer car, You cannot buy a more American car, And if they really wanted to shame everyone else they could easily make a long form commercial on how terrible it is to travel in any EV not a Tesla.

Elon has mentioned advertising in only an educational format, Charging is the one area people still think its a commuter car. They need to highlight people like myself that have gone from white knuckling 8 hour drives and showing up exhausted, to showing up in 9.5 hours a sociable person. If I have to hear another person from my region say the phrase....I won't buy one unless I can drive 500 miles without stopping...my midwesterners need to drink more water.
Age-targeted marketing actually is appropriate in this situation, because Tesla’s current car business is essentially just a preliminary R&D operation. If you view the entire freaking business right now as a startup in R&D mode that just happens to already be large relative to other corporations and also happens to have a very pleasant property — being organically cash flow positive — then these moves make a lot more sense. Too bad for those of us who made shorter term bets in the face of rough macro headwinds and skittish markets, but that’s a separate concern than questions about how management should run the company.

Investors are much too short-sighted with Tesla. 2023 earnings are pocket change in the long run. Same with ‘24 and ‘25. It always should come back to discounted cash flows and net present value estimates. In this wide view of the totality of the business plan, Model 3 and Y are nearly irrelevant. IRRELEVANT. Negligible rounding errors. I remember in 2017-2019, when I first began to follow Tesla, how much FUD was around about declining Model S & X sales with the 3 coming onto the scene. Now, most investors barely care about these models except insofar as their roles as brand-leading flagships and test beds for new technologies that are still too expensive and hard to manufacture to make it into the 3 or Y. Still, it took years for people in the investment community to really accept that S&X were imminently going to be a negligible portion of the business and profits even though the arithmetic was pretty simple to do. We have a strong bias for focusing on the known stuff we already have and hyperbolically discounting the future rewards of a long-term strategy.

We need that same kind of mental recalibration for 3&Y now too, considering that, unsurprisingly, people are suffering from similar myopia. Gen 3 is what matters.

Forget for a moment the whole “FSD and other future revenue will accrue long term profits” debate. Another critical part of this blitzscaling-even-at-0%-margins strategy is that every additional vehicle Tesla produces is contributing to improving the entire business to better prepare for the future years that actually matter. Every additional car means more kaizen on the manufacturing line and more data flowing through that shiny new Tesla OS at every stage of the value chain. S3XY cars are primarily for learning and for generating enough free cash flow to fund the investments for Gen 3 and the moonshot AI bets. Any free cash flow they happen to generate beyond this is just a minor bonus.

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How does this feed into not doing something like TV advertisement that’s essentially marketing mostly to older people?

1) They are greatly outnumbered by younger generations

2) In the 2030s and beyond, many of them will be deceased or no longer driving cars

What I care most about from a marketing standpoint is what 10-year olds, who are just starting to be old enough to take interest in cars and technology, are thinking. That is the critical target market. Not adults over 40. I also care about what cars young celebrities and rappers are bragging about driving, and Tesla appears to be winning there too. What are young professional athletes buying? Oh that’s right, Teslas.


As far as I can tell from anecdotal experiences, Tesla is overwhelmingly dominating the interest and desire of kids and young adults with respect to vehicles, at least here in the US. As long as that’s still true, I am not concerned about demand.
 
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Crazy to see you a long timer fall for this GJ nonsense. There is a ton still happening. Berlin ramping up, Austin cyber truck tooling, 4680 ramp, Lathrop ramp, Shanghai mega factory ramp, Corpus Christi refining plant, but may not be significant, along with Mexico GF. Lots of irons in the fire.
I thought the ^^ emoji and the rest of the obv bisarre language in my post should make it pretty clear that I was being sarcastic...
 
I thought the ^^ emoji and the rest of the obv bisarre language in my post should make it pretty clear that I was being sarcastic...
You’re cordially invited to my weekend retreat seminar Sarcasm For Dummies. Those who pass leave with a gift bag of suckers and sour gummy bears, while those who fail take a nosedive off my mountain. You should probably bring a parachute.

See how that’s done? 😜
 
Aunt Cathie bought 256K shares today.
Elon is a gardiner. He weeds out the non-believers to allow the believers to thrive.
  1. Stock owners will soon only be those that believe in the long term vision - not lovers of a line of COBOL
  2. Tesla owners are the believers and not the rich that need to be persuaded
    1. They can buy an ICE and Tesla will hook them later
    2. The less wealthy believers probably drive more miles in older more polluting ICE vehicles
    3. The rich non believers likely buy a competing EV or brand new (and therefore less polluting) ICE
The future has been too long coming - Elon is taking the shortest possible route. Now which bit of Tesla Network and Optimus are you having difficulty with?

Elon will come out of this smelling of roses. Will you?
lighter
 
Let‘s consider taking Elon literally at his word when he repeatedly says the following things:

- Tesla will choose volume over margin. If they have excess production capacity they will lower prices & margins to create demand for that capacity.
- Tesla could sell cars for zero profit (and hopefully profit off the install base with software services)
- He doesn’t care about short term focused Wall Street opinions
- The mission is most important

When I think about the above, I accept that if it comes to it, Elon will continue to drop pricing to relentlessly increase production, probably to the point that he really would prefer zero profits, or at least cashflow neutral, vs having stalled growth.

I believe in the mission - if Tesla really is able to achieve 20m vehicle run rate and ungodly amount of energy storage deployment by 2030 that will be one of the greatest capitalistic achievements of all time. If that requires running the company at single digit operations margins, I would actually be ok with that. Even if all the moon shots end up failing (no Robotaxis/L5, no Optimus), and TSLA is never worth more than it is now, I would still consider that a massive success for humanity and would be proud to be an investor.

I would even say the same thing if the company was only worth $100 Billion in 2030, as shocking as that would be to the bank account, at least everyone would be driving good & cheap EVs, their houses & workplaces would be powered at least in part by Tesla, and the world would be on its way to Master Plan part 3 being a reality.

Outstanding summary of where we are in the Mission.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit".

Thank-you.