Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

Its kinda exciting to be holding this stock, where your only concerns are whether the next huge piece of news will concern highland, cybertruck or semi.
Legacy auto has had a run of bad news regarding their EV efforts lately. I dont think it will take much for us to hit $300 again soon.

Remember, friends don't let friends sell TSLA before cybertruck launch.

 

[JupiterMan]

I'm suggesting the opposite, of course, EU and China M3 will flip to Highland, UK and the like will continue with the existing model

very much doubt this would happen. UK sales of Model 3 would fall off a cliff in anticipation of the new model launching sometime later, could also crush financing deals on new cars, as projected resale values would likely be much lower.

cant see it, but then we've been done over on S/X so who knows?

 

[Dikkie Dik]

European sales look great, best July ever. Berlin and unwinding the wave of course but still excellent.

Great post by Pircher.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687413382297595905

 

[UkNorthampton]

Global economy looking soft. For Tesla to be performing well in such an environment is excellent. It means that Tesla's comparative position in 2-years time will be staggeringly strong. It also means that those Chinese BEV makers (notably BYD and SAIC) who fill the global leaderboard alongside Tesla, are going to be even more motivated to export. Western/Japanese ICE-makers are really in a bad corner.

Maersk Raises 2023 Earnings Forecast, But Expects Sharper Fall in Global Container Shipments

The firm saw a profit of $1.49 billion in the second quarter of 2023, down from an $8.62 billion profit a year earlier.

shipandbunker.com

Maersk warns of slower demand for container shipping

Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk warned on Friday of a steeper decline in global demand for shipping containers by sea this year, prompted by muted economic growth and customers reducing inventories.

www.reuters.com

And it was the right time for Tesla to expand while others cut back, ready for the upswing in the future. Just imagine if cheaper model(s) are available in volume when that happens.

Regarding the UK, I think it will be struggle for Tesla sales for some time (various reasons) but as new renewables come on stream, electricity prices & cheaper Teslas will really have an effect. By then the UK EV infrastructure should be better. UK doing ok for Tesla (just seen loads driving around) but potential to suddenly rise in the future.

 

[JusRelax]

I dont think it will take much for us to hit $300 again soon.

This should do it, right? Buy yours today!

https://shop.tesla.cn/product/cybertruck-corrugated-cat-house

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687332370725113856

 

[theschnell]

Guys, no affiliation whatsoever, but I’ve found this guy’s US macro analysis to be spot on and very helpful in this turbulent economic environment. Newsletter is 100% free, no credit card required.

Economics Uncovered | Steven Anastasiou | Substack

Institutional grade research covering all things economics: with particular specialisations in inflation & the money supply. Click to read Economics Uncovered, by Steven Anastasiou, a Substack publication with thousands of subscribers.

www.economicsuncoveredresearch.com

Or X

https://twitter.com/steveanastasiou

I sharing because I’ve found it to be very insightful.

 

[theschnell]

Global economy looking soft. For Tesla to be performing well in such an environment is excellent. It means that Tesla's comparative position in 2-years time will be staggeringly strong. It also means that those Chinese BEV makers (notably BYD and SAIC) who fill the global leaderboard alongside Tesla, are going to be even more motivated to export. Western/Japanese ICE-makers are really in a bad corner.

Maersk Raises 2023 Earnings Forecast, But Expects Sharper Fall in Global Container Shipments

The firm saw a profit of $1.49 billion in the second quarter of 2023, down from an $8.62 billion profit a year earlier.

shipandbunker.com

Maersk warns of slower demand for container shipping

Shipping group A.P. Moller-Maersk warned on Friday of a steeper decline in global demand for shipping containers by sea this year, prompted by muted economic growth and customers reducing inventories.

www.reuters.com

Agree, and I’m just holding through the storm because it’s impossible to predict Tesla stock price short term. But if any company can survive a serious recession (if there will be one), it’s Tesla.

 

[UkNorthampton]

European sales look great, best July ever. Berlin and unwinding the wave of course but still excellent.

Great post by Pircher.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687413382297595905

View attachment 962126View attachment 962127

Report by Turkish car journalist. We're missing these figures in Europe sales (the cars are made in Germany [MiG], so makes most sense to include in Europe stats for the 2-continent country of Turkey / Türkiye ).

So he's saying 758+ Teslas in July and 1697+ 3000 for May-July (only started deliveries mid-May 2023, many caught in dock by import system IT problems).

Edit: adding spoilers for those with limited screen space

Edit 2 - further tweet by same journalist - these figures (even if guesses) aren't being captured in any normally referred to stats (eg @Troy / EU EVS etc) - as far as I know. They are NOT official & I can't see a way that any reliable source can be found.

The Tesla news that I wrote 2 days ago has become 'special' news in many places today.

Let me give you another detail then; Tesla sales in 2.5 months is around 3,000 units

Spoiler: Details-tweets-translated

Later tweet..

By the way, Tesla does not share the sales figures in line with the decision made globally and that it is not a member of
@ODMDOtomotiv
.

But I can say this much; I learned that Tesla, which started deliveries in mid-May, is by far the brand that sells the most electric cars in Turkey both in July and in the January-July period.

referring to ...

MG tops electric car

While 3,454 electric cars were sold in July, its share reached 4%.

At the end of the first 7 months, 13,482 electric cars were sold and its share in the total market was 2.61%.

MG reached the lead in both July and January-July.

At the end of 7 months, Renault is in the 2nd place, while Togg is in the 3rd place.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1686779557230133259

 

[Artful Dodger]

Trading started at the 100 day moving average on Thursday and went up from there

Hi @Papafox

TSLA opened above its 50-Day Moving Average MA(50) which was at $251.14 yesterday. The MA(100) is still down around $215 but we're dragging it up and into the light by a few points everyday.

Quite the quiet Volume, wot? August...

Cheers to the Chartists!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Surely for those that are <80% confident, UBER is the perfect solution?

Tesla has already been through this. Several years ago, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest suggested that Tesla start with a human operator to get ride sharing going immedately. Elon said words to the effect of 'yeah, we could do that...'

Of course, Tesla didn't do that. That was ARK's idea to enhance their vision for the future, not Tesla's. A technology company is planning a technological solution? Not really surprising. Meanwhile, ARK doesn't include Tesla Energy in their model, which focuses on ride hailing.

We discussed the reasons to not start w. human operators at the time: HR headache as automomy replaces human drivers, all the issues with payroll, benefits, taxes, and lost time. The LVCC Loop is a prime example. That's NOT how Tesla plans a widespread deployment.

Cathie Wood also got Tesla's business plan wrong: ARK stated they expected Tesla to go back to the Market for $15B in equity raises to fund expansion plans. Instead, Tesla was self-funding thru-out covfefe production pauses, unprecidented interest rate hikes, and with the background of a looming recession. While competitors stumbled, Tesla increased its market share, payed off it's debt, and added to their cash pile. Remarkable.

TL;dr TSLA>ARK>CNBC

 

[mongo]

Tesla has already been through this. Several years ago, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest suggested that Tesla start immediately with a human operator and get ride sharing going immedately. Elon said words to the effect of 'yeah, we could do that...'

Of course, Tesla didn't do that. That is ARK's idea to enhance their vision for the future, not Tesla's. A technology company is planning a technological solution. Surprising? Not really. Meanwhile, ARK doesn't include Tesla Energy in their model, which focuses on ride hailing.

We discussed the reasons here at the time: HR nightmare as automomy replaces human drivers, all the issues with payroll, benefits, taxes, and lost time. That's NOT how Tesla plans to solve this problem. ARK will just continue to swing trade, as they've done for years (while underperforming TSLA hodl'ers)

That's not the 1st time Cathie Wood got Tesla's business plan wrong: ARK stated they expected Tesla to need to go back to the Market for $15B in equity raises to fund Tesla's expansion plans. Instead, Tesla has self-funded thru covfefe, interest rate hikes, in spite of a looming recession, all the while paying off debt and building their cash pile. Remarkable.

TL;dr TSLA>ARK>CNBC

Although:
Hertz bought Teslas that they then rent to Uber drivers.
So Tesla is getting the data and a chunk of profit up front without any investment (beyond their app improvements for rentals which they would be implementing for service loaners anyway)

https://www.uber.com/us/en/drive/vehicle-solutions/hertz/

 

[Knightshade]

This all assumes everyone is a super bull. But there are plenty of bulls here that are not bullish on FSD.

I'm 95% confident FSD will be working inside 5 years.

I admire your optimism.

If that turns out correct then buying Uber is super dumb though.

Surely for those that are <80% confident, UBER is the perfect solution? If FSD doesn't work for 20 years, Tesla would still be guaranteed to dominate the market.

Dominate what market? One they're not otherwise involved in and where Uber has only posted an operating profit once and in doing so admitted the other major player is hurting them on pricing? Why would they want to "dominate" that?

Further- the cars driven by Uber are vast majority NOT Teslas (and the ones that are are largely gonna be those leased via the Hertz deal where Tesla gets all the benefits WITHOUT investing a penny). And unless they plan to give some kinda discount to drivers (which is not a thing Tesla generally does) how does this make any sense AT ALL as far as helping Tesla?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Although: Hertz bought Teslas that they then rent to Uber drivers.

Notably, those are paying Customers, rather than Tesla employees, big difference.

Selling to Hertz wasn't part of Tesla's strategy for Autonomy, it was just inevitable that rental fleets would go for the lower-maintenance, longer-life EV solution vs ICE.

Sounds like Trucking will be next, wot? In this space, Tesla Autonomy may indeed start with a hybrid human/machine solution via 3-truck 'Platoons'. One human operator in the lead vehicle to handle unexpected events, plus two autonomous trucks slipstreaming the lead dog.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

I admire your optimism.

If that turns out correct then buying Uber is super dumb though.




Dominate what market? One they're not otherwise involved in and where Uber has only posted an operating profit once and in doing so admitted the other major player is hurting them on pricing? Why would they want to "dominate" that?

Further- the cars driven by Uber are vast majority NOT Teslas (and the ones that are are largely gonna be those leased via the Hertz deal where Tesla gets all the benefits WITHOUT investing a penny). And unless they plan to give some kinda discount to drivers (which is not a thing Tesla generally does) how does this make any sense AT ALL as far as helping Tesla?

As mentioned previously, I don't want Uber to be bought. Just interested that others aren't pro the idea.

I meant dominate the entire market - OEM, robotaxi, taxi etc. But you can also throw in food delivery etc.

If Tesla bought Uber, 90% of their vehicles could be Tesla's within 3 years. Tesla could loan them or get the drivers to pay in instalments. Tesla are also well positioned to deal with the redundancy problem. They can be offered other jobs that Uber don't have. Also, food and package delivery will take Optimus a few years to get accustomed to.

I won't reply because this is a niche topic.

 

[Knightshade]

As mentioned previously, I don't want Uber to be bought. Just interested that others aren't pro the idea.

I meant dominate the entire market - OEM, robotaxi, taxi etc. But you can also throw in food delivery etc.

If Tesla bought Uber, 90% of their vehicles could be Tesla's within 3 years. Tesla could loan them or get the drivers to pay in instalments.

Unless Tesla has a ton of spare cars nobody is buying how does that make any sense at all?

They otherwise take on a ton of operating expense and costs (assuming they self finance, because a lot of drivers won't qualify for 3rd party car loans), add a company with vastly garbage operating margins in comparison, and gain... what exactly?

Tesla are also well positioned to deal with the redundancy problem. They can be offered other jobs that Uber don't have.

Like what? You think there's a lot of skill cross-over between "uber driver" and "EV engineer" or something? If someone qualified for an already better paying Tesla job, and lived somewhere they could apply for one, why would they still be driving Uber to start with?

I won't reply because this is a niche topic.

Also a super dumb one

 

[mongo]

Notably, those are paying Customers, rather than Tesla employees, big difference.

Preemptively noticed

So Tesla is getting the data and a chunk of profit up front without any investment

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687444255474675712

Economy = good

 

[cab]

This should do it, right? Buy yours today!

https://shop.tesla.cn/product/cybertruck-corrugated-cat-house

View attachment 962129

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687332370725113856

Never underestimate the influence @Krugerrand has in this forum and, apparently, over Tesla in general...

 

[lascavarian]

Never underestimate the influence @Krugerrand has in this forum and, apparently, over Tesla in general...

Beware the Flerken!

 

[AndrewZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1687444255474675712

Economy = good

Yup so far there's zero indication rates need to come down, the economy is handling 5% just fine