Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[insaneoctane]

They are creating more H100s in accordance to their wafer agreements with TSMC. However most of their beat comes from just price gouging when there are poor alternative as their margins jumped 20% QOQ.

Supply and demand and price elasticity. Tesla just went through a margin peak before interest rates went up (soften demand) and ramping factories increased supply. Probably easier to scale H100s than a complete vehicle...

 

[Dutchie]

Alleged leaked email from EM about CT:

View attachment 967656

I call this fake. Sub 10 micron accuracy is the size of a red blood cell. No way this kind of accuracies can be achieved - especially mass produced.

 

[15Peter20]

Part of me wants NVDA to do well since i have some exposure in ETF's and it'll benefit $TSLA indirectly.
Part of me wants it to tank so i can buy more $TSLA since they are both AI companies right? right? (I forgot $TSLA is only considered an AI company when other AI companies disappoint)

It is currently tanked. Has been for over a year.

 

[Usain]

I don't get Elons response here.

Why does he call an opinion on the software 'complaining'? Every Beta program I've been in has begged for opinions and observations. This guy suggests that something should be changed in the approach. That's input, not complaining. It could be more specific but I'm sure he was ready to be specific if given the chance. Or has Tesla said that they don't want input on this specific version?

My interpretation is that Elon was miffed that this person was complaining about the FSD development team. This guy was saying that the team was focusing on the wrong things and Elon was defending his engineers.

 

[Robertj]

Maybe FSD 12 demo tomorrow night

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1694649520909611273?s=61

 

[Cult Member]

Now isn't that a clear view at the tailgate of Model 3 (highland)? SP to the moon!
Picture posted by Elon on X

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694634492403843248

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Read the chain...
James got an early non-wide-public release after requesting it using internal contacts. Then made a post complaining it needed work. Well duh, it's an early release of a Beta software package...
"Unfortunately I have to say"???, no you don't. No you didn't.




https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1562507192342761473

Fair, enough. I don't have (or want) an X account though so I didn't get to see the explanation.

I would also suggest that as on other social media there is a huge number of views that just read the initial post and never bother with or miss the important ones or read early before those are even made. So I would assume that any rude or hard to interpret post from Elon (or anyone else) has lots of readers that never see a follow up with an explanation.

 

[Todd Burch]

I call this fake. Sub 10 micron accuracy is the size of a red blood cell. No way this kind of accuracies can be achieved - especially mass produced.

This is the kind of stuff I do for a living. I write dimensional measurement and analysis software.

You are correct, there’s no way all parts will have sub-10-micron accuracy.

However, it could be a case of Elon shooting for the stars in hopes of landing in the moon. Having said that, I also think just trying to shoot for those accuracies for real would dramatically raise the cost of parts and lower their potential max production rate.

It’s also possible Elon was pissed/frustrated about a few poor parts and was just trying to knock that supplier into line.

But I tend to agree it’s not something they are going to legitimately try for—the email is either fake, altered, or Elon was being characteristically optimistic.

 

[Mengy]

Now isn't that a clear view at the tailgate of Model 3 (highland)? SP to the moon!
Picture posted by Elon on X

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694634492403843248

But...I remember a certain grumbly cat on this forum claiming that the Highland Model 3 would NOT be a hatchback, that there was zero chance of that?


Looks like a hatchback to me!!!

EDIT: Although I kind of disagree with @Cult Member , I think this might simply be a Model S sitting behind the CT. I think I see a plaid badge there under the tail light. Looks a LOT like a Model S profile to me...maybe the grumbly cat was right after all?

 

[2daMoon]

Not soon. Upcoming is not soon.

Two weeks then?

 

[mongo]

Fair, enough. I don't have (or want) an X account though so I didn't get to see the explanation.

I would also suggest that as on other social media there is a huge number of views that just read the initial post and never bother with or miss the important ones or read early before those are even made. So I would assume that any rude or hard to interpret post from Elon (or anyone else) has lots of readers that never see a follow up with an explanation.

You've een here long enough to know that if something historical and controversial regarding Tesla is brought up, it has likely been discussed...

Nearly exactly one year ago in this case:

Nice cherry picking! Curious if you read the actual tweet thread, or 'collected' this knowledge via some 3rd party? Here's the context:

James Locke on Twitter: "Unfortunately I have to say I'm still having to intervene to correct #FSDBeta 10.69 in my area. Still lots of work to go. I know this is probably not a popular opinion but the focusing on the "Chuck" complex left is getting ahead of the needs of some more basic control issues." / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@arctechinc 10.69 is in limited release for a reason. Please do not ask to be included in early beta releases and then complain." / Twitter​

​

James Locke on Twitter: "I mean #FSDBeta is still having issues with getting into a right turn lane. " / Twitter​

​

Self-appointed Pope of Muskanity on Twitter: "@elonmusk @arctechinc Sometimes I snap at people when I try my best and they’re not appreciating what I do. I also understand the context of the fraudulent attacks on FSD. Is this what happened here? Elon, please apologize to Jame: he cares more about Tesla than 99.9% of your followers. https://t.co/aNlSYYk3pI" / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@RationalEtienne @arctechinc I do not doubt that. Criticism, public or private, is welcome after we go to wide beta. Early beta has many known issues. The reason we release it to a limited number of cars is to discover unknown issues." / Twitter​

​

Elon Musk on Twitter: "@RationalEtienne @arctechinc No. Let me make something clear: James contacted me directly to be included in *early* beta, which is only ~1000 cars, mostly employees. Early beta explicitly has issues or it would be rolled out widely, so publicly criticizing something he had asked for is wrong." / Twitter​

To be clear, I have been watching James Lock's Youtube videos since he used to post on his roadtrips w. his Model S 100DL to Yellowknife, NWT in Northern Canada. James moved to California, and became an early participant in Tesla's FSD Beta program.

Now if you've watched any of James' library of Beta test videos, he posts 1 video taken on each of 2 test loops near his home in Santa Clara. This forms a valuable resource because he has documented how FSD Beta software has evolved over the course of the test program (many thanks, and all due credit to James!).

What James does do, however, is repeatedly and continuously report the SAME issue. I've watched him drive pass the Speed Limit sign on Plum Canyon Rd just outside his neighborhood which has NOT been recognized for almost a year now. And James reports it repeatedly, even though the behaviour hasn't changed. Missed/late lane changes and other issues that are consistent ARE known to the Beta team. It's just impatience.

Elon's point is simple: Tesla is running this early release Beta version v10.69 to identify any NEW issues. There is little point in continuing to point out KNOWN issues, as this is not the finished product. Indeed, what James would seemingly have the Tesla Autopilot team do is work on HIS list of priorities (ie: multiple lane changes in short order after a complex mult-lane left turn). 'So DON'T work on Chuck's problem; work on MY problems.' Yeah...

Do you understand now why Elon reacted to James' tweet as an Engineering Manager, and not like some PR poofdah? Do you think James' original tweet was appropriate, or even helpful? Will his issues still exist in 10.69.1 or 10.69.2 versions? Yes, most likely. But that's the time to advance the conversation on what to fix next, not while trying to improve and/or create a new suite of features targeting better performance in a different scenario (ie: Chuck's complex left turn).

Cheers to the FSD Beta team!

 

[elasalle]

..grapevine news ...
.delivery event in next 3-4 weeks. Delivery from multiple locations on that date. ~ 70K

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694508414645551109

 

[uscbucsfan]

..grapevine news ...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1694508414645551109

I saw that and while parts may be true, the part where the people selected have already configured their CT, given pricing, and not asked to sign an NDA was a bit unbelievable.

Unless they picked 20-30+ people that have no presence on social media, no intentions of telling other people, etc...which is extremely unlikely. One of them would have leaked the price and info.

 

[Cult Member]

EDIT: Although I kind of disagree with @Cult Member , I think this might simply be a Model S sitting behind the CT. I think I see a plaid badge there under the tail light. Looks a LOT like a Model S profile to me...maybe the grumbly cat was right after all?

[/QUOTE]
A simple Model S? Would be bad setup by the photographer. Nothing to see here, it's just a comparse in 2nd row.

 

[unk45]

Does hard-to-build mean expensive-to-build?

A little anecdote…

Two years ago I built a house, from a custom designed prefab steel kit. The pieces were built to the mm. It was my first house. Prior projects were all single rooms.

By the latter stages I had learned a valuable lesson. The more time I spent sharpening my pencil, using the laser level, precision marking the floor, using ONE datum, preparing, the less time I spent building. Invest the extra half hour at each stage to save half a day of late stage fudging.

My interpretation of Elon’s email is that Cybertruck *will* be cheap to build in 2024. But it will be a little slower in the initial months ensuring every dimension critical component is within these new tighter specs.

View attachment 967708

edit: Elon has also recently tweeted that Optimus parts are hard to build. Same same.

Most people who've ever assembled anything from a kit inherently understand that lesson. The best are very, very precise and accurate. The model car IIRC was one of Elon's examples, using Mattell cast models, if my memory is correct. The price of high precision and high accuracy is equally precise and accurate manufacturing.
Many years ago I visited Kyocera in Kyoto. I recall clearly their discussion that the highest levels of precision had most expensive equipment and highest quality raw materials but were, once those two were complete, cheaper to make and vastly more reliable and cheap to use.
I still use the Kyocera kitchen knifes that they developed, still sharp as when they were new.

Often I think of the comparison to Tesla and SpaceX, where the merits of the same principles continue today. From giga-presses to Octovalve to BMS those same principles work.

The 'short-term-itis' is the enemy of excellence. Making things be so precise and accurate is hard! Time estimates to reach near-perfection are not accurately or precisely predictable. The sooner we all understand that, the sooner we stop ridiculous complaints about miss schedules. The schedules are guesses, but we so often equate them to launching a 'new' Toyota which is a known quantities with known results, just with a bit of changed appearance.

 

[elasalle]

While everyone is celebrating NVIDIA(*which is deserved), let's not forget ...
... what kind of NVIDIA trades should I contemplate from this

 

[cusetownusa]

I saw that and while parts may be true, the part where the people selected have already configured their CT, given pricing, and not asked to sign an NDA was a bit unbelievable.

Unless they picked 20-30+ people that have no presence on social media, no intentions of telling other people, etc...which is extremely unlikely. One of them would have leaked the price and info.

I didn’t get the impression that the people selected configured anything, nor were given any specs. Sounds like the only details they received were it’s the high end version and expect to spend $75k-80k.

Either way, until something official it’s all just speculation for me.

 

[Rohan]

OMG don't make me set up a stalks thread...

Horn is for losers. Used it once in 6 months.
Stalks are for losers. Used them once in errr... DM me if you want to know the incriminating answer.

Ah ex BMW driver /j

 

[mongo]

I saw that and while parts may be true, the part where the people selected have already configured their CT, given pricing, and not asked to sign an NDA was a bit unbelievable.

Unless they picked 20-30+ people that have no presence on social media, no intentions of telling other people, etc...which is extremely unlikely. One of them would have leaked the price and info.

Joke:
New version of the prisoner's dilemma.

Price is $79,000. If anyone leaks this, the entire group will be informed by e-mail that their reservation are canceled, using the To: field, no bcc here.

Not a joke:
It also works on an individual level. You talk, you walk. No need for NDA.

 

[scaesare]

Yeah, I read it differently. Unlike the CT, Legos & soda cans very low cost.

Whereas I read it as a "first principles" approach. Very similar to: "toy cars are built from a single casting, rather than 100's of individual parts, we should be able to as well."