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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It’s just astonishing to me that the App gave me no choice for the payment method on a $70k+ car purchase (and also that the bank allowed such a huge overdraft:)
This is probably due to Apple's requirement for the iOS app/ApplePay, so that they can grab 30% of whatever you paid by card. On a similar note, It is cheaper to get X.com verified subscription via the website than through the iOS app. So I cancelled my X.com ApplePay subscription and rejoined via the website.
 
Thanks for breaking it down. You'd think more people in this market segment would be paying cash, but that's a whole different subject.
I have to say if Tesla does have any shortfall of willing buyers what it takes to navigate the digital buying experience could use further introspection, particularly if the goal is to broaden the pool beyond the existing fan base. Say what you will about the dealership model, while they may be screwing you at least they talk you through the process.
I've paid cash four times now: 2014; end of 2017 twice; and end of 2021. I've given them a personal check for the balance at delivery each time. The most recent time I remember there was a flood of BS about paying them in advance by any of various means (from some kind of sales advisor). I said I wouldn't be paying them anything beyond my deposit until I'd inspected the car and decided to take delivery.

There was a bunch of grumbling, but eventually they agreed. When I showed up they wouldn't let me inspect the car until I'd paid. We agreed that I would pretend to pay by leaving the check with them while I inspected the car. It was perfect. Then I went back and filled out the paperwork and left with the car.

I don't know just what kind of scam they are protecting themselves from, but it must be something. To me, it just seemed they were making it difficult to do things in the proper order. I expect that the next time I buy one, things will have gotten worse.

In any case, it's a way better process than buying at a traditional dealership. That is something I've done quite a few times, also always for cash.
 
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I've paid cash four times now: 2014; end of 2017 twice; and end of 2021. I've given them a personal check for the balance at delivery each time. The most recent time I remember there was a flood of BS about paying them in advance by any of various means (from some kind of sales advisor). I said I wouldn't be paying them anything beyond my deposit until I'd inspected the car and decided to take delivery.

There was a bunch of grumbling, but eventually they agreed. When I showed up they wouldn't let me inspect the car until I'd paid. We agreed that I would pretend to pay by leaving the check with them while I inspected the car. It was perfect. Then I went back and filled out the paperwork and left with the car.

I don't know just what kind of scam they are protecting themselves from, but it must be something. To me, it just seemed they were making it difficult to do things in the proper order. I expect that the next time I buy one, things will have gotten worse.

In any case, it's a way better process than buying at a traditional dealership. That is something I've done quite a few times, also always for cash.
A long, long time ago, when I was still a teenager, my father took me aside and explained about Car Loans. (Note: This was all very much pre-computer and PC).

Case #1: One does not have money in the bank to buy a car outright, so one takes out a loan. He very carefully calculated out how much one would have to pay for that loan, complete with the car loan interest rate. At the end of that time, plus maybe a few years, one still doesn't have that much money in the bank, so one has to take out another car loan. For those not truly well-off, one gets stuck in this rat race.

Case #2: Hold off buying the car, but deposit a certain amount of money every month into an interest-bearing account. (This was back when, well, banks actually paid reasonable interest on deposits. Today, one would use a bond fund or something for the purpose.) Since one is aiming at buying a car down the road, the amount being saved becomes larger over time due to compounding interest, so the amount put away every month is substantially less than what one would have to pay for with a loan.

When enough money is accumulated, go out and buy the car. With cash. Drives the dealerships beserk; they like those loan origination fees. And the chance to diddle the loan interest rates. And, if played right, gives one a leg up on the dealer's usual machinations of trying to extract the most from a buyer.

Once one has the car: Keep on putting money aside for the next car. At the end of each cycle of this method, one has a heck of a lot more money.

I have never taken out an auto loan in, what, five decades of owning cars.

The above is, I'm sure, no surprise to anybody who hangs out on an investment forum. But it's amazing how few consumers realize how bad the rat race of buying stuff on time is.
 
This is probably due to Apple's requirement for the iOS app/ApplePay, so that they can grab 30% of whatever you paid by card. On a similar note, It is cheaper to get X.com verified subscription via the website than through the iOS app. So I cancelled my X.com ApplePay subscription and rejoined via the website.

No - apple only charges 30% on digital goods. Any real world products (like a car) sold in an app downloaded from the iOS or Google app stores do not pay apple/google anything for the transaction.
 
A long, long time ago, when I was still a teenager, my father took me aside and explained about Car Loans. (Note: This was all very much pre-computer and PC).

Case #1: One does not have money in the bank to buy a car outright, so one takes out a loan. He very carefully calculated out how much one would have to pay for that loan, complete with the car loan interest rate. At the end of that time, plus maybe a few years, one still doesn't have that much money in the bank, so one has to take out another car loan. For those not truly well-off, one gets stuck in this rat race.

Case #2: Hold off buying the car, but deposit a certain amount of money every month into an interest-bearing account. (This was back when, well, banks actually paid reasonable interest on deposits. Today, one would use a bond fund or something for the purpose.) Since one is aiming at buying a car down the road, the amount being saved becomes larger over time due to compounding interest, so the amount put away every month is substantially less than what one would have to pay for with a loan.

When enough money is accumulated, go out and buy the car. With cash. Drives the dealerships beserk; they like those loan origination fees. And the chance to diddle the loan interest rates. And, if played right, gives one a leg up on the dealer's usual machinations of trying to extract the most from a buyer.

Once one has the car: Keep on putting money aside for the next car. At the end of each cycle of this method, one has a heck of a lot more money.

I have never taken out an auto loan in, what, five decades of owning cars.

The above is, I'm sure, no surprise to anybody who hangs out on an investment forum. But it's amazing how few consumers realize how bad the rat race of buying stuff on time is.
I didn't do bonds. 50% of my first Tesla was all my TSLA shares. In retrospect that turned out a $700k model S 🤷‍♂️. I take loans. Wife's one is 1.69%. Mine is 2.49%. Loan balances, again invested in TSLA. But this time I might just pay cash, transferring fsd to a 🫦 red model s.
 
Why are people coming up with contorted reasons Tesla lowered FSD price to $12000?

It's very simply a way to boost Q3 earnings.
There are some additional factors:-
  • Vehicle Price reductions mean some hit to revenue and profits, even if the same percentage margins are retained.
  • With the Cybertruck, Austin Model Y and Berlin Model Y ramps currently progressing slowly, there is no fast way of growing sales volumes.
  • Shutdowns in China might also have a marginal impact on sales volumes.
  • The higher FSD price was set before interest rate increases. (Rationale for dropping prices is similar to vehicles).
  • Tesla might now have a much better idea about what they think it will cost to produce FSD.
  • Perhaps the previous price was too high.
Now isn't a bad time to throw this demand lever, with apparent V12 progress, and the lower price, providing more of a buying incentive.

Any increase in the take rate will probably bring in significantly more Q3 revenue than would have been achieved by the higher price.

The price can also be increased again at a later date and advance knowledge of that increase used as a demand lever.

The percentage of the fleet who will have FSD at the end of Q3 will still be small in relation to the current fleet size, and very small in comparison to the likely future fleet size.
 
Yes, Berlin currently exports Model Y to Taiwan, Israel, and Turkey. I'm calculating 11% of production exported in Q2. I estimate it will increase to 15% this quarter.
Tnx Troy.
Am I mistaken or the "Other" segment did increase considerably from 2022? Wathing also @piloly's charts on X it really seems other European markets are growing fast these past Qs.
 
So this was the "good news" post from yesterday... nice, but a little underwhelming tbh

It's another counter to FUD (Tesla/EVs are a niche fad), a tiny bit anyway.

I'm waiting for Model Y total production to outnumber Model 3. Still hasn't happened, with Highland, might be a little further off.

There can be a number of these announcements chipping away. If nothing else, a celebration of Tesla's workers.
 
One weird data point: Hong Kong still has the old Model 3 (Est. delivery: Q3 2023). Hong Kong is right hand drive like Australia. I had always assumed HK is a harbinger to what we will see in AU (They got the Model Y before us).


So is Giga Shanghai still running a batch/line with the old Model 3?

Edit: Macau is also RHD, a Special Admin Region of China just like HK, but gets the new Model 3 !! I am trying to understand the logic here.
 
I sell software. The key differentiator that makes software nothing like most businesses is that the marginal cost of production is zero.
FSD has to be priced at the point at which total revenue from FSD is maximised. Assuming FSD only has one flavour, that means the optimal pricing is such that a bunch of super heavy users who have high incomes are going to get an amazing deal, but thats just how pricing works...

It could be that the optimal price for FSD is $50,000, or it might be $2,000. Tesla can never know unless they vary the price and observe. People are VERY bad at predicting this stuff, and even predicting their own decisions at various price points until they are confronted with them.

FWIW I bought FSD for £10,000 ($12,000) (for the second time!). Nobody I know would pay that much for it right now. Most people I know wouldn't even pay that if it was complete autonomy.
 
FWIW I bought FSD for £10,000 ($12,000) (for the second time!). Nobody I know would pay that much for it right now. Most people I know wouldn't even pay that if it was complete autonomy.
Well, they say they wouldn't pay that, but in part that's because it's not autonomous. Autonomous would be a huge difference as it can expand acceptable commutes, which can lower the cost of housing. Autonomous would allow stretch commuters to shut down immediately after the workday ends.