Tesla reported 16 days of Inventory in their last 10-Q, and that is based on an industry standard 75-days of sales in a quarter. Supply-chain consultant Jeff Lutz said on "Brighter with Herbert" channel a few days ago that about 8 days of that inventory is "in-transit" either on ships or car carriers, but likely already sold and pending delivery. Jeff concludes that Tesla had 7 days or less of extra "sellable" inventory, which at Q2 production rates inplies about ~45K cars.
We've seen some estimates already for reduced August production in Shanghai during the switch-over to Model 3 "Highland", but it seems to have be on the order of 20K (and now production is higher going forward). Model Y at Giga Texas potentially is down for 2 weeks for production line upgrades according to Joe Tegtmeyer, but that's only 10K total Models Y. So, net-net, available inventory (~45K) is very close to enough vs the fewer cars produced (~30K) as Elon told us during the Q2 Conf. Call.
The more interesting situation is with Giga Shanghai. It seems that initial "Highland" production was mostly put on ships bound for Europe to facilitate a Oct 1st roll-out of the new product in both China and Europe. That means that those shiploads may remain in inventory for the end of Q3, and deliveries would pad Q4. However, it might be only 2-3 ships, so it's likely the remaining 10K from available inventory. BTW, Fremont needs to crank out the cars to build inventory for Jan 1st, in preparation for the IRA "instant rebate".
electrek.co
imprintent.org
