Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVWatcher]

Is there any discussion somewhere about the risks the struggling tier 2 and 3 suppliers would bring to teslas production? I kinda figured that would be the only discussion here today but it doesn’t even seem mentioned.

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706768319825506584

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706774184708473084

 

[jerry33]

Is there any discussion somewhere about the risks the struggling tier 2 and 3 suppliers would bring to teslas production? I kinda figured that would be the only discussion here today but it doesn’t even seem mentioned.

If they were halfway smart, they would have cut production as soon as the strike was imminent. Presumably they make just-in-time so they can ship just-in-time. The only issue would be if they had a large inventory of parts.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is there any discussion somewhere about the risks the struggling tier 2 and 3 suppliers would bring to teslas production? I kinda figured that would be the only discussion here today but it doesn’t even seem mentioned.

This is as good a place as any to discuss, seems it could be both cost and risk related.

I don't think Tesla makes it's own tires for example (I just grabbed the first thing to mind but don't know tires really). Multiple sources would help dodge some BKs out there. But if they're all struggling with sales, and consumers delay tire changes in a pinch for example, then tires could get a bit more pricey overall.

Maybe Tesla's the only key customer standing so they'll either buy one of them out for the efficiency improvements and recycling... or just reinvent a more efficient tire that lasts 2x as long.

Wait... who will make CyberTruck tires? Those are unique, at least the final mold anyway. This could get crazy and puts Tesla production at risk I'm certain. We just never really see it on the outside. The whole chip shortage was nothing short of a miracle. I trust they will prevail through it again.

 

[Opus BC fan]

I'm thinking we have rough seas and pirate activities until the earnings call in mid-October.
Batten down the hatches.
As a Tesla investor, you know you are on a magnificent ship that will weather any storm...

 

[FireMedic]

anecdotal here, I see dozens a day, and have seen maybe 1-2 on the side of the road, and even then, cannot say if broken down or just pulled over for other reason.

Have seen a number on flat beds, but that could also be accidents, Carvana/Vroom/Freight/Etc.

In the Bay Area it’s not uncommon to see 20 teslas at one intersection. And I’ve seen less than a dozen teslas on a flat tow since I began keeping records (read: buying TSLA) in 2018 .

IMO Flat tires followed by dead batteries are the most likely reason for a tesla on a flat tow. I don’t see a lot of teslas in car accidents (as a Bay Area first responder I think it’s worth mentioning, though anecdotal). And I agree with USAIN, he was lying.

PSA; I’ve seen too many people killed trying to change flat tires on the side of a road; I always recommend my friends and family to just have it towed.

Unless you’re in a remote area; it’s just as easy…and it’s included with most insurance policies.

 

[EVWatcher]

This is as good a place as any to discuss, seems it could be both cost and risk related.

I don't think Tesla makes it's own tires for example (I just grabbed the first thing to mind but don't know tires really). Multiple sources would help dodge some BKs out there. But if they're all struggling with sales, and consumers delay tire changes in a pinch for example, then tires could get a bit more pricey overall.

Maybe Tesla's the only key customer standing so they'll either buy one of them out for the efficiency improvements and recycling... or just reinvent a more efficient tire that lasts 2x as long.

Wait... who will make CyberTruck tires? Those are unique, at least the final mold anyway. This could get crazy and puts Tesla production at risk I'm certain. We just never really see it on the outside. The whole chip shortage was nothing short of a miracle. I trust they will prevail through it again.

I trust they will prevail. The question is how bad it will get before the end.

 

[Mengy]

I'm thinking we have rough seas and pirate activities until the earnings call in mid-October.
Batten down the hatches.
As a Tesla investor, you know you are on a magnificent ship that will weather any storm...

Yep. I'm expecting the Q3 ER to not go over so well, even though it will likely be very promising for the company's future. Lower P&D than Q2 will spook Wall Street and probably make the market panic.

Next month will likely be a great buying opportunity for us longs!

 

[navguy12]

I think rather than arguing, when folks drop negative pronouncements about lithium mining or battery manufacture (they can't be recycled you know!! /s), just ask them "What would you propose as an alternative", and they will have no answer...

When people throw the lithium mining argument in my face, I always point out that my lithium was mined once while every single litre of fuel they burn has to be continually mined; every time they use their vehicle someone somewhere is mining more fuel for it.

 

[Knightshade]

When people throw the lithium mining argument in my face, I always point out that my lithium was mined once while every single litre of fuel they burn has to be continually mined; every time they use their vehicle someone somewhere is mining more fuel for it.

This seems to... really misunderstand....like, all parts of how either thing works though?

Lithium does not fuel your car.

Lithium helps you store fuel for your car. Which is electricity (and which is still largely created via fossil fuels today, though an increasingly smaller % of them over time).


None of which changes the fact the mining and environmental impacts of gas cars are vastly worse than EVs, but the lithium=fuel analogy you give, and I've seen many give it, just...should not be a thing.

The battery isn't fuel, it's the fuel tank.

 

[DarthPierce]

Sooo, in Cybertruck news, a few days ago when I clicked on my reservation it said Tri-motor with FSD and you will be invited to configure as it gets closer.

now it just says "You cannot edit design at this time"

Getting ready to allow configuration?

I hadn't seen this mentioned, sorry if old news.

 

[Snerruc]

Or his company sees an outsized sample of them because not all companies will tow a tesla. It could be his company sees more of them because other companies say no.

I learned the hard way that a Tesla is not a desirable tow compared to a gas-powered car. If you are trying to schedule your own tow you will get some pushback when they learn its a Tesla and likely pay more than it would have otherwise cost.

Get your tow through the Tesla app.

 

[EQC_]

This seems to... really misunderstand....like, all parts of how either thing works though?

Lithium does not fuel your car.

Lithium helps you store fuel for your car. Which is electricity (and which is still largely created via fossil fuels today, though an increasingly smaller % of them over time).


None of which changes the fact the mining and environmental impacts of gas cars are vastly worse than EVs, but the lithium=fuel analogy you give, and I've seen many give it, just...should not be a thing.

The battery isn't fuel, it's the fuel tank.

You're indeed correct...but the folks on the other side of the argument comparing lithium to gas might be better convinced (if it's possible to convince them) just comparing mining to mining, or weights to weights, even if the items aren't exactly analagous. The real trouble is that they literally have no idea about the current state of things in terms of the mining or mass of stuff the ICE economy requires.

For example:

Comparing an entire lithium ion battery vs gasoline:
- That battery weighs about 1000 lbs (very round number estimate). People have a feel for what 1000 lbs is, and they think it is a lot.
- Well, how much gasoline does your car burn? Most people literally never see the gasoline that goes into the car, or where it goes, and have no idea how much it actually is. Make them realize the numbers and MAYBE they'll make a connection. My first line on this: the Tesla's battery is warrantied for 120,000 miles (or whatever it is for your car), and is expected to last much much longer. But, sticking just with that 120,000 mile warranty -- how much gasoline does it take to go that far? If their car gets 30mpg, then it takes 4,000 gallons of gas to go 120,000 miles. 4,000 gallons of gas would weigh about 24,000 pounds...and it just gets burned up and sent into the air as ~75,000 pounds of CO2, plus other worse things. Hey Mr. EV_Hater: are you really comparing a recycleable 1000lb battery to the 24,000 lbs of gasoline your car is going to burn up to go 120,000 miles?

Realizing that lithium isn't the fuel, comparing green electricity vs gasoline:
- Yup...but another 1000 lbs of solar panels (probably a big over-estimate?) on my roof will last 25+ years and provide my EV with all the "fuel" it needs, plus power my house. Honestly...if the average driver only goes about 40 miles per day, that requires about 10 kWh of electricity each day, so about 2 or 3 kW of solar panels. So, about 8 of Tesla's 400 Watt panels? A few hundred pounds?
- No, seriously Mr. EV_Hater...how are you going to seriously compare a 1000 lb battery plus 1000 lbs of solar panels to the 10,000+ gallons, or 60,000+ pounds of gasoline you're going to burn in the next 25 years?

 

[Zero CO2]

Sooo, in Cybertruck news, a few days ago when I clicked on my reservation it said Tri-motor with FSD and you will be invited to configure as it gets closer.

now it just says "You cannot edit design at this time"

Getting ready to allow configuration?

I hadn't seen this mentioned, sorry if old news.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705795598916710844

its been all over X last few days... not really old new

 

[Joe F]

Tesla roadside assistance contracts with local towing service, including the one today.

Oddly enough, the truck dispatched yesterday wasn’t able to get the car out of the garage, and that driver was not versed in towing a Tesla as it was his first, and he stated he has been in the business a long time. His first. Let that sink in.

It took a Tesla mobile service tech to get the car to a point where we could push it out of the garage in order for the second company to tow it.

 

[wipster]

Yep. I'm expecting the Q3 ER to not go over so well, even though it will likely be very promising for the company's future. Lower P&D than Q2 will spook Wall Street and probably make the market panic.

Next month will likely be a great buying opportunity for us longs!

Cool, as long as I know where @SOULPEDL hides his couchs!!!

 

[SmokyPeat]

Realizing that lithium isn't the fuel, comparing green electricity vs gasoline:
- Yup...but another 1000 lbs of solar panels (probably a big over-estimate?) on my roof will last 25+ years and provide my EV with all the "fuel" it needs, plus power my house. Honestly...if the average driver only goes about 40 miles per day, that requires about 10 kWh of electricity each day, so about 2 or 3 kW of solar panels. So, about 8 of Tesla's 400 Watt panels? A few hundred pounds?
- No, seriously Mr. EV_Hater...how are you going to seriously compare a 1000 lb battery plus 1000 lbs of solar panels to the 10,000+ gallons, or 60,000+ pounds of gasoline you're going to burn in the next 25 years?

Ah, but which is heavier- a pound of gold, a pound of feathers, or a pound of Lithium?

 

[SageBrush]

You're indeed correct..

I agree, but the distinction is academic ... or pedantic, depending on your POV.

Let's talk about the energy related costs of moving a car. It will be the fuel plus storage.
If an ICE then fuel production >> storage so we round off to fuel production
If an EV then storage >> fuel production so we round off to storage

 

[Buckminster]

Worth watching this even though you won't learn much:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706887371713663138

The only thing I learnt is that Highland employs Frequency Selective Damping.

Not sure if they are using Koni:
KONI | ACTIVE Technology

• For comfort, with the suspension moving in a high frequency area (± 10 Hz), it is neccessary for low damping forces for the vehicle to remain comfortable.
• For handling, with the suspension moving in a low frequency area (± 1 Hz), it is neccessary for high damping forces for the vehicle to remain safe and in control.

Unrelated:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706886885182967893

 

[Mike Smith]

The 'old news' Reuters casting article has now been updated to actual news (perhaps they were trying to bury it)..

This could explain why the Model 3 Highland isn't using front/rear castings - could it be getting a single casting?

Tesla working on 'gigacasting' tech to mould underbody in one piece, Shanghai Securities News reports

Tesla is working on an upgrade of its "gigacasting" technology to die cast almost all vehicle underbody parts in one piece, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Wednesday citing unnamed sources close to the automaker.

www.reuters.com

'Tesla (TSLA.O) is working on an upgrade of its "gigacasting" technology to die cast almost all vehicle underbody parts in one piece, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Wednesday citing unnamed sources close to the automaker.

The state-owned Chinese newspaper, which based its report after a recent visit to Tesla's Shanghai factory, did not say when and where the upgrade will happen.'