I would say he was also far off on the 4680 and the entire battery capacity/needs. They have been agile enough to backfill with less than stellar alternative solutions but they have resulted in compromises such as certain tesla models being slower than a chevy bolt (not that I care about speed but it is not something to brag about).
The battery launch failures have significantly delayed the CT and Semi, the semi was a glorious solution that would dramatically alter the field of heavy trucking. Years late now.
I don't think I/you can blame Elon for that. Did Elon come up with the tabless design? The 4680 form factor? I think all that was his engineering team. The structural battery? Elon or team? Regardless, I think these
are good innovations and was worth trying to do them. Elon and his team did stress that these projects could get delayed. Just like Elon stressed the Cybertruck could get delayed. I don't consider these failures.
Solar City might not have been a good investment in hindsight but it DOES align perfectly with Tesla's mission.
I was criticizing based on investment/strategic performance.
If Tesla had become a solar panel installing juggernaut then no one would be deriding Elon for buying Solar City.
But it didn't.
And solar roof is a great product being held back by installation labor. That will likely be alleviated in time due to Optimus.
You're reaching! Even now, it can't be anything other than a drain on company profitability.
And you say he's been consistently wrong for 7 years on FSD advancement? That's not how I see it, FSD has progressed immensely over the past 7 years. He has been wrong about the timeframe for hitting Level 5 but Elon is an eternal optimist afterall, and FSD has proven to be a tougher nut to crack than expected. Still, progress is regularly made and to say he's been categorically "wrong" about FSD is incorrect, it's just taking longer than he expected it to.
It matters when you make big decisions based on unrealistic timelines, like he did recently deciding not to pursue the $25K car.
Elon has made some mistakes for sure. But all the things you mentioned as failures are just "things that are late".
Solarcity is still is a disaster financially, not late. Deleting the $25K was almost a disaster.
To say he starved the FSD team of resources sounds kind of nuts when you consider how much he's been pouring into Dojo and Nvidia clusters. I haven't heard that the FSD team wanted to hire more developers or labelers. It seems to me that Elon has given the FSD team everything they asked for and more.
Fair point.
The reason I keep adding to my Tesla position is precisely because of those "things that are late". Many of those "things" are going to be earth-shattering when they go from "late" to "here". And I'm expecting some big ones in 2024.
Me too. I'm not selling. Doesn't mean Elon is the right guy going forwards, especially at his 30% attention rate to Tesla (which may be why some of his decisions are off lately).
I think you may be underestimate the value of a driven leader with vision. The culture will be lost (not immediately), but overtime without the spiritual leader. It’s unclear what is going to happen at Amazon now that Bezos is busy with his new life (and new wife).
I do agree Elon is a great leader.
Another important aspect: To not let Evil win. Solar City was almost brought to its knees when it was overweight on expansion at the risk of being attackable by shorts, and they did. A solar city bankruptcy would have caused severe issues for solar adoption across the United States. Instead, Tesla bailed out solar city customer and business and gave a big long middle finger to the financial vultures, and, in effect, also the fossil fuel industry trying to prevent solar adoption.
That's nice, but didn't help my Tesla stock. At all.
Solar Roof would be super cool if it was possible to get it done at reasonable cost, hopefully a breakthrough eventually happens. Just like with battery cost.
I'm skeptical.
We really lucked out in this battle that the Saudis bailed on Elon's funding secured and didn't get to own this amazing company for pennies on the dollar of what its potential really is. Instead we get to. Have some faith.
True. Good thing we got saved by events. If it were left totally up to Elon, we'd be cashed out at $420 pre split.
Yes, mistakes. Let us just forget that the Model Y has become the best selling car in the world. Let us forget that the Supercharger network has been so successful that virtually every major NA EV competitor has signed on to use the network. Let us forget that Tesla Energy now has high Gross Margins and high growth, count pled with Virtual Power Plants as operating reality. Let's just concentrate on the missteps and late deliveries , shall we? We certainly would not want to think of the steady reduction in vehicle cost, including those insanely gigantic Gigapresses.
Much better to concentrate on the mistakes and late deliveries. After all the successes are not nearly so important. Much better it is to think of the plentiful supply of Elon missteps.
I might say I'm sorry to be so argumentative, but I'm not. I might even put an /s somewhere but I intend no sarcasm.
Finally, I, too, am irritated with much of Elon's behavior. When I am I think about Jobs, Einstein, H. Ford, N. Tesla, Edison and many more, warped and irritating every one. Every one had failures and stupid moves. That makes it obvious to conclude that 'world changing talent' also has glaring human defects. Those defects invariably include some offensive ones.
We should be better than to focus only on those highly visible defects. Even Isaacson understands that those achievements come at the price of quite strange distortions.
Hey I agree about the successes. Oh, I forgot another Elon mistake - his edict in the Model 3 ramp to automate everything. Even I knew that was a mistake when I first heard that. That almost bankrupted the company. Yes, his incredible leadership and hard work pulled Tesla's bacon from the fire, but another leader wouldn't have ended up in that mess in the first place.
Pretty sure Cosmaself is aware of the value of a visionary leader given his previous profession. But over the lifespan of any long enduring company, different leadership traits & leaders may best serve the company at specific times and maximize the cumulative return to shareholders. Dunno if a different CEO for Tesla would be optimal now, 5 years, or 15 years from now but at some point it will be--just as Apple may have inadvertently benefitted by having a manager-type CEO in Tim Cook at the reigns after the vision and key strategic directions/decisions/products were set by Steve Jobs. The key is timing and finding the right person when the time comes. Moreover, I suspect that over the next 2-5 years as some of the outstanding challenges which Tesla still has on its plate are overcome, Elon's going to naturally shift his focus in other directions, perhaps especially towards SpaceX and Neuralink as they both seem primed to enter exponential phases.
This. On the whole Elon has been a massive positive for Tesla. Its just that at some point, companies need different talents at the helm. Given Elon's penchant to distract himself with side projects when things get too complacent, I'm not sure running Tesla is in our best interests now. That company has so many things going on, I am truly worried about "boss paralysis", in that nothing moves forward unless the boss says so. Now Elon makes quick decisions (not always the right ones), but in a company the size of Tesla the sheer volume of decisions needed to not get slowed down keep on increasing.
www.teslarati.com
. Maybe I can get second place. $28,678.82 for me.
