Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[geometro]

down 5% during the day and another 3% AH... ugh.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon desperately needs to retire from earnings calls. He doesn't seem to understand that they are not meant for him to blather about whatever's on his mind.

 

[thx1139]

People upset about elons discussion of macro and affordability... I disagree. I am very glad we have a CEO who is acutely aware of the economics of the end product and the average consumer.
The alternative is to have the CEO of Lucid, puzzled why nobody is buying their staggeringly expensive supercars during huge economic uncertainty. I'd much rather have elon running Tesla than anyone else, and very happy with the very low level of inventory Tesla carries compared to some other companies.
Elon may have had a bad day, or be tired. Thats ok. Its a sign of a CEO who cares and actually works .

People that grew up at time not to far back that jumped at mortgage rates under 10%.

 

[bkp_duke]

Jeesh, you guys are never happy.

First - EM is too optimistic.
Now - EM is too pesimistic.

 

[geometro]

I miss Zach

 

[uscbucsfan]

Jeesh, you guys are never happy.

First - EM is too optimistic.
Now - EM is too pesimistic.

People are as happy as the stock looks...and it's not good right now.

 

[thx1139]

Elon all for technology creating AI based workers, but cant stand technology making it so we dont need to commute as much.

 

[unk45]

I miss Zach.

So do I. I quit listening before I begin to feel suicidal. This is not good.
The reality, if I can see through the mood, seems actually quite good.

 

[cab]

The audio cutouts are proving to be the most bullish moments of the call..

 

[betstarship]

Elon all for technology creating AI based workers, but cant stand technology making it so we dont need to commute as much.

dood, he's said "dangerous and repetitive jobs" and been consistent about it

 

[Tony73]

Sometimes I think Elon just tanks the stock for kicks and giggles. Everything he said could have been communicated in a much better way.

 

[traxila]

Why not talk about the good quarter, the great new production lines installed, the fat cash in the bank and the amazing CyberTruck that is coming?

He sounds exhausted.

 

[BornToFly]

Elon sounds tired and VERY grumpy. Stay off the call Elon.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

IMO I see a great chance to see TSLA at $300+ sometime before year end. What other OEM is adding such large amounts of cash to their bottom lines in these tough economic times? What other OEMs are spooling up production (EV, battery storage or otherwise) as quickly and economically feasible as Tesla? With energy, AI, supercharging and other services becoming increasingly "meaningful contributors to profitability" what other company is structured like Tesla? As far as I can tell most OEMs are in the process of literally going bankrupt. Where's that investment money going to flow to?

All the FUD/criticisms/concerns directed daily at Tesla are just as applicable to practically any business out there. But Tesla has something that others don't: a growing pile of cash, healthy free cash flow, and a solid business plan for the future. One can't say that about many other businesses.

This statement from the slide deck says it all: "Our cost of goods sold per vehicle decreased to ~$37,500 in Q3. While production cost at our new factories remained higher than our established factories, we have implemented necessary upgrades in Q3 to enable further unit cost reductions. We continue to believe that an industry leader needs to be a cost leader." AND THIS: "We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to in early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors. For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."

IMO even less chance now for TSLA to $300 by year end. The negative QoQ and YoY earnings growth have been verified (but expected), and energy sector did not show big growth QoQ. It did show good and improving margins, but investors won't make big updated projections for 2024 based on that alone. If we saw a 30% QoQ growth in deployed GWh, maybe.

With this quarter's update, TSLA TTM EPS are actually going to go down. PE ratio will suddenly be higher than before.

TSLA's 2024 forward PE ratio based on current EPS estimates is already over 60 (in contrast most stocks including Nvidia are 40 or under).

Do you think TSLA should have a Forward PE ratio of over 75? Based on really nothing changing on the earnings growth front? Insanity.

COGs decrease is somewhat an illusion. The mix of short / long range and RWD / AWD shifted more to the SR / RWD variants, which alone would make COGs decrease (along with ASPs).

 

[tslagreen]

People upset about elons discussion of macro and affordability... I disagree. I am very glad we have a CEO who is acutely aware of the economics of the end product and the average consumer.
The alternative is to have the CEO of Lucid, puzzled why nobody is buying their staggeringly expensive supercars during huge economic uncertainty. I'd much rather have elon running Tesla than anyone else, and very happy with the very low level of inventory Tesla carries compared to some other companies.
Elon may have had a bad day, or be tired. Thats ok. Its a sign of a CEO who cares and actually works .

Very true. We have seen this many times before. My short term greed sometimes gets in the way of appreciating a realistic, once in a generation CEO who speaks from truth rather than trying to satisfy short term quarter by quarter thinking.

 

[tslagreen]

IMO even less chance now for TSLA to $300 by year end. The negative QoQ and YoY earnings growth have been verified (but expected), and energy sector did not show big growth QoQ. It did show good and improving margins, but investors won't make big updated projections for 2024 based on that alone. If we saw a 30% QoQ growth in deployed GWh, maybe.

With this quarter's update, TSLA TTM EPS are actually going to go down. PE ratio will suddenly be higher than before.

TSLA's 2024 forward PE ratio based on current EPS estimates is already over 60 (in contrast most stocks including Nvidia are 40 or under).

Do you think TSLA should have a Forward PE ratio of over 75? Based on really nothing changing on the earnings growth front? Insanity.

COGs decrease is somewhat an illusion. The mix of short / long range and RWD / AWD shifted more to the SR / RWD variants, which alone would make COGs decrease (along with ASPs).

Surprise, surprise you are negative on the stock. Daddy needs to find a new hobby.

 

[H Mak]

Just say no to the radar question. That's all that's needed

 

[Cosmacelf]

Wow. Sounds like Mexico factory is being gated by interest rates. Ack, and now he says he is worried about going bankrupt. Shut up Elon, shut up.

Edit: He's having flashbacks to December 2008. And saying he's worried about that now. AAAAAAHHHHHH!

 

[cliff harris]

Elon has NEVER considered earnings calls to be an opportunity to pump the stock. He has always considered people who trade (esp day trade) the stock to be his enemy. He cares about long term investors only. Nothing has changed.
Sometimes he is in a good mood, sometimes not, but I think extrapolating his tone of voice into the LONG TERM potential for the business is madness. I've had TSLA stock for 8 years, and experienced every elon mood on the calls. Its never been a great predictor of the stock over the following 3 months.

 

[GhostSkater]

Elon has NEVER considered earnings calls to be an opportunity to pump the stock. He has always considered people who trade (esp day trade) the stock to be his enemy. He cares about long term investors only. Nothing has changed.
Sometimes he is in a good mood, sometimes not, but I think extrapolating his tone of voice into the LONG TERM potential for the business is madness. I've had TSLA stock for 8 years, and experienced every elon mood on the calls. Its never been a great predictor of the stock over the following 3 months.

Yep, be real, things are bad, everywhere, tell me that, how you guys are fighting it, what are the plans, what are the risk and so on

Which is exactly what they did, I don't want fluff and everything is good, we are awesome and so on like other automakers and them reality sets in latter and they are caught with pants down