Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

The prediction was 50% overall, some higher, some lower from 2018, not 50% higher every year.

In the January, 2021 update Tesla wrote:
We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain.

I see nothing with similar language from before then. So I'd say that 50% average annual growth should be measured from a 2020 baseline, not 2018. That changes all your numbers of course. It makes the 2023 target easy (1,686,309 rather than 1,862,291).

 

[UkNorthampton]

Good description of how V4/non-tesla supercharging is rolling out in UK.

From 10 to 30 non-tesla sites in a few months. Another 30 planned. Newest ones sometimes/often v4

£10.99 a month gives non teslas same price as teslas. Cheapest network, peak /non peak / tiered rates around half the price of many others.

If non Tesla superchargers are considered as their own network, close to biggest in UK. Many chargers per site, adapting to demand by installing more for busy sites. Video of v4 cables/screens but not detailed.

 

[GhostSkater]

Tesla killer 100 kWh Cadillac Lyriq charging curve, amazing consistency and fast charging

Guess Mary is leading the same amount in pack thermal management as she is leading in EVs overall

 

[GhostSkater]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716556240908681538

 

[CanadaEV]

I haven’t posted here for a while, but I have a question:
The last two OTA updates (Now 2023.27.7) have changed the behaviour of the command, “Navigate to:“

If the destination I enter is the name and rough location of a business, all I see is details about that business, but no choice to navigate to it.
What am I missing?
If I have navigated to the same destination in the past, it remains in “Recent “ choices.
However, it appears that to make it a new navigation choice, I now need the actual street address for the navigation feature to understand my navigation request.
I find this counterintuitive because it gratuitously provides business information that I am not seeking… while omitting the option that I am seeking: the choice of navigating to it.

(Apologies if this is already well covered… if so, please kindly refer me to the existing thread.)

 

[scaesare]

Weird twist to having an efficient design: An efficient EV will take a bigger apparent range hit when towing.

<snip good explanation>

It's a sad irony that the gross inefficiency of an ICE tow rig overshadows the additional overall energy consumption of pulling a load...

 

[MP3Mike]

There are signs that Tesla might be starting the expansion of GigaNevada. (Or maybe just doing other upgrades in the parking lot.)

 

[juanmedina]

First Tesla commercial:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716584408705278122

 

[uscbucsfan]

First Tesla commercial:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716584408705278122

"Not really created or paid for by Tesla"

 

[dhanson865]

I didn't want to miss out if today turns out to be the low and it just goes up from here but I missed my 210 triggering.

It won't hurt my feelings if we don't go below 210 ever again.

View attachment 983915

meh, the universe picks and chooses which part of the sentence it wants to pay attention to. It took a few days but the next couple of tranches triggered also.

 

[betstarship]

what the f?

Bitcoin price today, BTC to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap

The live Bitcoin price today is $67,509.69 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $48,132,475,590.83 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time.

coinmarketcap.com

 

[FastEddieB]

Towing with EV’s is just not going to be great no matter how it is spun.

Certainly towing heavy loads long distances with an EV pickup will take more frequent charging, and that may very well end up favoring a gas, diesel or hybrid truck.

But in my experience, an awful lot of towing is local or relatively short distances. We use our 2006 Honda Ridgeline to pull a dump trailer to pick up mulch and topsoil. To take recycling and trash to the recycling center. To take our tractor in for service with a 14’ utility trailer. To pick up and return rental backhoes, cherry pickers, wood chippers and the like. Almost all of those tasks are within a 15 mile radius. Looking at other pickups on the road, it looks like most of them spend most of their time doing similar tasks. I think that’s the likely use case for a Rivian or a CyberTruck.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Btc is up and maybe Tesla will realize some of those gains to hold more cash.

Also rumor on X that gigaberlin plans to increase production to 1 million vehs annually and battery cell production to 100 gigawatt hours annually. I think this is just rehashing the original plans, but here's what was posted:
View attachment 984813

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716478727603773733

 

[mongo]

In the January, 2021 update Tesla wrote:
We plan to grow our manufacturing capacity as quickly as possible. Over a multi-year horizon, we expect to achieve 50% average annual growth in vehicle deliveries. In some years we may grow faster, which we expect to be the case in 2021. The rate of growth will depend on our equipment capacity, operational efficiency and capacity and stability of the supply chain.

I see nothing with similar language from before then. So I'd say that 50% average annual growth should be measured from a 2020 baseline, not 2018. That changes all your numbers of course. It makes the 2023 target easy (1,686,309 rather than 1,862,291).

Yah, that was the Q4 2020 letter. Here's the Q4 2019 P&D (which admittedly did not call out forward looking growth into the mess that was 2020)

In 2019, we delivered approximately 367,500 vehicles, 50% more than the previous year and in line with our full year guidance.

Tesla Q4 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla Investor Relations

Q4 2018 letter:
https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA_Update_Letter_2018-4Q

In total, we are expecting to deliver 360,000 to 400,000 vehicles in 2019, representing a growth of approximately 45% to 65% compared to 2018.

 

[Skryll]

Towing with EV’s is just not going to be great no matter how it is spun. What it will do at some point 6-8 years out is force the more widespread use of use of ever more aerodynamic trailers for various uses.

Towing is great for the Semi truck?

But for smaller more general purpose vehicles like the CyberTruck, another technological advance may be to have battery and motor suppor in the trailers rather than lug around the extra 50% capacity for just in case we are towing today in the Cybertruck.

 

[InTheMiddle]

There is more to towing than just range. My recent experience towing with my Model X showed the range drop was challenging, yes…but without question the superior torque and handling of EVs made towing a breeze vs prior towing in ICE vehicles. In town and on the freeway, being able to accelerate quickly from a stop, merge easily (and accelerate to merge safely!), etc made towing a pleasure. Remember, range can be worked around with more superchargers (especially in pull-thru configurations), but the torque / acceleration while towing issues with ICE cannot really be overcome.

Towing with EV’s is just not going to be great no matter how it is spun. What it will do at some point 6-8 years out is force the more widespread use of use of ever more aerodynamic trailers for various uses. It’s inevitable. You also will see some partial solutions for things like boats, i.e. fairings on the trailers. The time when people could just act like aerodynamics don’t matter with vehicles is coming to an end, and there will be a LOT of changes that will seem like duh things. I really like the RIvian, but the shape of it is basically for marketing. There is no reason the front of the truck had to be shaped like conventional pickups, except to make acceptance easier for a wider group of buyers. Like all conventional PU’s the thing is an aerodynamic joke.

Towing is great for the Semi truck?

But for smaller more general purpose vehicles like the CyberTruck, another technological advance may be to have battery and motor suppor in the trailers rather than lug around the extra 50% capacity for just in case we are towing today in the Cybertruck.

 

[alhounos]

what the f?

Bitcoin price today, BTC to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap

The live Bitcoin price today is $67,509.69 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $48,132,475,590.83 USD. We update our BTC to USD price in real-time.

coinmarketcap.com

View attachment 984806

This certainly makes me feel better about my recent TSLA losses!

FYI, Tesla still has $184 million worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. That's calculated from Early 2021 prices, which were around $30k.

 

[Electroman]

What is "clickbait" journalism?:

Ignore what 80% of the consumers use. Check out the fringe crap already rejected by the consumers, and then blame the entire market segment.

Opinion | What a Long, Strange and Unsatisfying EV Trip It’s Been

A New York Times reporter struggles with an electric rental car.

www.wsj.com

 

[EQC_]

First Tesla commercial:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1716584408705278122

It concerns me that this apparent Tesla fan made a "Tesla commercial" but seems to have used 2 easily disproven lies about the competition. I'm not worried about Tesla...I just don't get why this guy couldn't find a better argument instead of the obvious non-truths.

1. They state that the RAV4 *starts* at "about 43 or 44 thousand" and the Model Y is about the same.
   1. A quick google for "2024 toyota rav4 price range" gets me to a Motortrend article that says prices for the gas-only / non-hybrid RAV4 range from just under $30,000 to just under $40,000 for the Limited with AWD.
   2. A similar google for the hybrid price range gets me to an MSRP range of $32,000 to just over $41,000. AWD hybrid versions are within that range.
   3. Sooo....it sounds like these guys are saying the starting price is actually the MSRP of the highest hybrid trim level, and possibly including some additional options and/or the Destination Fee. Or maybe they're adding on a common Dealer Markup in their area or something? Whatever...even as a joke video, it's shady to claim a $43K price to "start" on a RAV4.
2. They state that the RAV4 isn't "made in America."
   1. Another quick google...most of the Hybrid RAV4's sold in the US come from Kentucky. The rest of the hybrids and the gas models come from Canada.
   2. Depending on where you live, and some traits of your personal mindset, some might refer to only the USA as "America"...fine...but that doesn't change the fact that most of the expensive/Hybrid RAV4's are made in Kentucky, right in the heart of 'Merica.
   3. So...again, another argument against the Toyota that isn't even true.

Have I failed at Google...or is this a cute "commercial" with content that would be considered false advertising by any reasonable measure?

 

[Thekiwi]

Have spent the last three weeks on holiday around Fiji & Singapore, happily missing the Tesla earnings shenanigans.

Tesla still a great company, consistently “delivering the future (late)”

TSLA fundamentals however still looking “meh” with declining ASPs/Margins/earnings, underwhelming growth projections for 2024/25, and its current huge market cap still heavily reliant for the most part on future significant technology breakthroughs (FSD/Optimus). EPS for current year and next year are significantly below what everyone expected 12 & 24 months ago.

This actually does not bother me though as I would rather Tesla cut margins more, and get the cheaper model out as quickly as possible (thereby lowering ASPs even more). The not going “full tilt” with Mexico factory is disappointing in that regard, and I continue to worry about the speed of 4680 ramp (the 8 lines planned for Austin would only be enough for Cybertruck seemingly).

I have become slightly emotionally disconnected from the TSLA stock performance as other positions in my portfolio have grown, and care more about Tesla the company continuing to fulfill the mission than being the most valuable company in the world, which for some reason Elon seems obsessed with now. The primary focus should be the mission, not the stock price. (Also does not help that the personal views of Elon is now deeply out of whack with mine, and IMO arguably a big chunk of the current global EV TAM, but that’s another matter entirely)

Thought Elons rant against working from home was hilariously hypocritical given as the Tesla CEO, one of the largest companies in the world, he himself spends several days a week working amongst his 4 other companies factories/offices, and claims he can handle tesla issues when needed just fine remotely.