Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

I like the idea of Bannon being in charge of chip anything.

 

[scaesare]

If your copper oxides to the point of failure, you've got bigger problems.

There is a minimum wire size for durability though. Tesla CAN bus seems to be the smallest at 0.35mm² (.67mm diameter) which is about 22 AWG.
With 4x the voltage, they can downsize a wire to 1/4 the crossection which is equivalent to dropping it 6 AWG sizes yeilding 75% copper savings.

Or they can use the same gauge to carry 4x the power. When combined with remote control nodes, rather than sizing runs based on individual loads, they can aggregate the total load that module controls and feed it with one wire. Total reduction can then be >75% for the section replaced with the common feed. End load circuits still need to be separate.

Indeed.

And I'll point out that Outdoor rated PoE++ Cat5e is 24AWG copper, and does just fine.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

There is one big difference from the model S case. Buyers reserved the model S signature edition from the onset with the understanding that it would cost more. It was not a last minute thing.
Same thing is happening with the roadster founders edition.

Tesla is a mature company flush with cash. It does not need to piss off loyal cybertruck reservation holders in TX/CA. I get that they want to start with the most expensive variant; that makes sense. If you are next in line for the cyber beast and ready to spend $100k, you should not be strong armed at the last minute into spending $120k. I think this will backfire.

What "strong-arming"? They are giving early reservation holders the first crack at this special edition rig, not forcing anyone to take it. Now-if they bump those early reservations to the back of the line if they don't take the special, you have a valid point. But nothing says they are doing that. As long as their place in line is kept (less those ahead that bought the FE), they will get first crack at the other versions as Tesla starts filling those orders. Seems like a lot of whining about nothing.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed, here in Idaho's charging desert, the state put out plans/received bids for their first 3-4 charging stations last summer. Hopefully they'll be built by the end of next year and it's just the first round of a more extensive buildout of stations in subsequent years. The problem with the initial small set is their locations are largely redundant with tesla supercharging locations along the interstates so none of them will extend worryfree electric driving into the large majority of the state where you often can't go. Hopefully that's addressed in subsequent years because it would only take ~10-15 strategically located chargers to open up the majority of the state's geography, which is also true of most Rocky Mountain & Great Plains states composing the great charging desert.

Agreed, but sometimes the local power grid goes down. Of course, gas cars can't get gas then either, but it's typically only a local outage so they can drive 50 miles or so and get gas. For EVs it can make you wait until the grid is restored because the distance vary from 100 to 200 miles between chargers.

 

[ABCTG]

Not towing related, but a simple question.

For fun when driving along I5 between LA and the Bay Area I count the southbound Tesla transporters. Yesterday I saw 28 in a 2.5 hr morning stretch.

Which leads to my question - why do I not see a similar number of empty transporters heading north. Obviously I am going in the same direction, but I should pass a few of them. But I see none - where do they all go? Anybody know how they route after drop off?

Driving north on I-5 from LA to SF, I've spotted a few of the empty Tesla car carriers going north, they are Mack trucks clearly marked as Tesla vehicles.
Tesla owns a few and probably does the low hanging fruit deliveries from Fremont to nearby locations.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

I'd argue the best garage is infinitely large but only takes a few seconds to reach any point within it.

This. Your "stuff" will automatically and insidiously expand to consume whatever space exists within a garage or shop. If your wife as access the time required to do so decreases exponentially.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732826815020830900

 

[TN Mtn Man]

There is a lot in the IRA (edit: BIL) that is intended to avoid this poor outcome. They specifically brought in requirements about maintenance and required uptime for charging stations, in addition to a network-connected requirement (so uptime could be checked), in addition to details all the way down to things like minimum requirements for technician qualifications to operate, install, and maintain these chargers.
They had real people with real experience in the writing of that law, best we can tell from the outside. They may have even listened to some of us here (they famously followed The Limiting Factor on intelligently designing the battery subsidy portion of the IRA, which has benefited Tesla a lot with more to come).

The most interesting part to me was how the law intentionally targets places where the for-profit entities (Tesla, Chargepoint, etc.) won't likely go anytime soon: rural areas and areas with lower incomes (likely apartment complexes). We _really_ need that, preferably BEFORE Tesla releases the "Model 2" en masse. There can be great synergy there.
As expected, rollout has been slow, since when the Feds distribute money, they distribute it to the state governments, which spend the money. To get the money from the Feds, those states have to write plans that show they will spend the money the way the Feds said to (i.e. meeting all the IRA requirements, some of which I mentioned above).
The states, many of which have little clue about EVs, then put out bids to contractors to write their plans... which takes time ... then they hire a articular contractor to write their plans ... the writing of which takes time ... then they review those plans ... which takes time ... then the states submit those plans to the Feds for review ... which takes time ...
You get the idea. Slow process of planning.
However, my understanding from the articles I've seen is that many states are indeed active and far along in this process (some Tesla owners from those states have even posted to this forum about how their states are proposing charger maps for the public to comment on: yay!) and are far along in their planning.
If other folks have more detail about their state's status in the implementation of this law (a.k.a. NEVI : National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure) charging networks, I am curious...

Edit: The law for NEVI was the BIL (Bipartisan Infrastructure Law), not the IRA. My bad! The IRA did cover the battery subsidies IIRC, but not the charger network.

My personal opinion is that the government intervention is just slowing the implementation of DCFC infrastructure. Companies such as Chargepoint or EVGO or EA would normally invest their own money wherever it made sense to expand the network without it, same as they have been doing (as well as TSLA of course). Now, I suspect many are holding off implementation, waiting to see if they can get in on the taxpayer welfare, rather than investing their own money. It's been over a year since the bill was passed into law, and still noting implimented because of it. Moving at the speed of government.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1732826815020830900

Cool video, thanks for sharing. This is my favorite shuttle launch video....mostly for the music.

 

[MP3Mike]

It's been over a year since the bill was passed into law, and still noting implimented because of it. Moving at the speed of government.

I think the first site has already soft-opened, just not an official opening yet:

PlugShare - EV Charging Station Map - Find a place to charge

Find EV charging stations with PlugShare, the most complete map of electric vehicle charging stations in the world!Charging tips reviews and photos from the EV community.

www.plugshare.com

I guess they had to rush and get that article out just before the first NEVI funded site opens.

The speed should pickup from here as there are a number of contracts that have been issued:

National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Progress Update · Joint Office of Energy and Transportation

An initial wave of 26 states is leading efforts to build new convenient, reliable electric vehicle (EV) charging stations under the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program.

driveelectric.gov

Already, seven states have issued conditional awards for new NEVI stations amounting to $101.5 million, two states have agreements in place, and 17 states are soliciting proposals for new stations.

 

[GOVA]

Bannon is a bit of a rockstar, having started at DEC and having done stints in high level roles at Intel, PA Semi, and Apple, before coming to Tesla.

Is he good for Tesla Dojo???

 

[mongo]

Is he good for Tesla Dojo???

He and Jim Keller developed the chip and ecosystem that the output from Dojo runs on. I'd say he's ideal technically.

 

[Krugerrand]

The Sweden strike doesn’t sound like it’s going well (if not FUD).

Elon Musk’s showdown with Nordic labor deepens as a pension fund dumps Tesla shares and postal workers withhold mail

A Swedish court ruling has effectively halted Tesla deliveries in a major European market.

fortune.com

I won’t be surprised if Tesla bails as a result of Sweden trying too hard to force their hand…

Being discussed with more accurate reporting in the other thread. But no, Tesla is still delivering cars. And I doubt Tesla bails or signs an agreement that doesn’t make sense for them to do so.

 

[EQC_]

If your copper oxides to the point of failure, you've got bigger problems.

There is a minimum wire size for durability though. Tesla CAN bus seems to be the smallest at 0.35mm² (.67mm diameter) which is about 22 AWG.
With 4x the voltage, they can downsize a wire to 1/4 the crossection which is equivalent to dropping it 6 AWG sizes yeilding 75% copper savings.

Or they can use the same gauge to carry 4x the power. When combined with remote control nodes, rather than sizing runs based on individual loads, they can aggregate the total load that module controls and feed it with one wire. Total reduction can then be >75% for the section replaced with the common feed. End load circuits still need to be separate.

Mongo's answer is clearly an accurate technical response.

For anybody who wants something a bit more hand-wavey: think about the Christmas lights people use to decorate their house.

The old incandescent ones used lots of power, but the wires were actually still pretty thin. HOWEVER, if you actually read the instructions, you were only allowed to daisy-chain 4 or 5 of them together. The outlet and the wiring was only properly rated to carry the current needed to power 5 strings of incandescent lights. So, if you only had one plug to use, there wasn't much you could do (at least within regulations/safety advice).

Then came the LED lights. They use like 10x less power. Suddenly, one plug on your house can do a lot more! Manufacturers COULD have shrunk the wires in the light strings down, but instead the wires stayed basically the same size and capabilities shot up instead (side note: I would assume that ordering up unusually small wire actually drives prices up compared to sticking with something common). The wires can still carry around the same amount of current, but so much more can be done with that current compared to the old lights, since each string draws 10x less current. I remember getting a string of LED lights that said you could daisy chain up to 50 together! That would be enough to wrap most houses several times...or add more strings of lights around windows, over trees, out into the yard, etc. And all that lighting wonder is coming out of one plug on the house.

Going up to 48 volts is a bit different (you're changing the power source, not the power consumers), but there's a similar trade-off in the design. You COULD basically leave all the same wires in place, but just shrink their diameter since they need to carry less current -- constant capability, but save mass by reducing all wire diameter. OR you could leave wires similar in diameter, and run several items off of one wire, eliminating the needs for several other power wires -- constant cabability, but save mass and complexity by eliminating many wires. Or, increase cababilities by powering more devices in the car without needeing additional wiring. Or whatever mix of the above makes sense in the design goals...

 

[Zero CO2]

Over the past 4 years since the CT unveil i have heard countless MSM taking heads , friends and acquaintances saying how weird , stupid, ugly , etc the CT is ... this got me thinking ... so here is a simple quiz you can share with any 5 year old over the holidays:

most will answer F ... the thing we old timers are used to is weird, ugly , and quite frankly a design abomination ....but it is the abomination we are used to looking at

 

[SmokyPeat]

Mongo's answer is clearly an accurate technical response.

For anybody who wants something a bit more hand-wavey: think about the Christmas lights people use to decorate their house.

The old incandescent ones used lots of power, but the wires were actually still pretty thin. HOWEVER, if you actually read the instructions, you were only allowed to daisy-chain 4 or 5 of them together. The outlet and the wiring was only properly rated to carry the current needed to power 5 strings of incandescent lights. So, if you only had one plug to use, there wasn't much you could do (at least within regulations/safety advice).

Then came the LED lights. They use like 10x less power. Suddenly, one plug on your house can do a lot more! Manufacturers COULD have shrunk the wires in the light strings down, but instead the wires stayed basically the same size and capabilities shot up instead (side note: I would assume that ordering up unusually small wire actually drives prices up compared to sticking with something common). The wires can still carry around the same amount of current, but so much more can be done with that current compared to the old lights, since each string draws 10x less current. I remember getting a string of LED lights that said you could daisy chain up to 50 together! That would be enough to wrap most houses several times...or add more strings of lights around windows, over trees, out into the yard, etc. And all that lighting wonder is coming out of one plug on the house.

Going up to 48 volts is a bit different (you're changing the power source, not the power consumers), but there's a similar trade-off in the design. You COULD basically leave all the same wires in place, but just shrink their diameter since they need to carry less current -- constant capability, but save mass by reducing all wire diameter. OR you could leave wires similar in diameter, and run several items off of one wire, eliminating the needs for several other power wires -- constant cabability, but save mass and complexity by eliminating many wires. Or, increase cababilities by powering more devices in the car without needeing additional wiring. Or whatever mix of the above makes sense in the design goals...

The physical strength of the wire becomes more of a consideration at very small cross sections- especially with something like Christmas tree lights.

 

[SO16]

Over the past 4 years since the CT unveil i have heard countless MSM taking heads , friends and acquaintances saying how weird , stupid, ugly , etc the CT is ... this got me thinking ... so here is a simple quiz you can share with any 5 year old over the holidays:

View attachment 997332
most will answer F ... the thing we old timers are used to is weird, ugly , and quite frankly a design abomination ....but it is the abomination we are used to looking at

View attachment 997333

Just like the argument stating CT will have a hard time due to massive brand loyalty in the truck world.

When all the pickups are basically the same, then sure… stick to “your brand”.

But once people understand how much better the CT is in so many ways, brand loyalty will be reduced from Legacy.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Just closing in on the end of the year here and haven’t seen any numbers on the semi production. Is that pretty much an abandoned project now?

 

[The Accountant]

Just closing in on the end of the year here and haven’t seen any numbers on the semi production. Is that pretty much an abandoned project now?

I believe that there has been no Semi production in the past 5 months. My guess is that based on real world experience with the Pepsi units, Tesla is making minor modifications to engineering/design aspects. Since 4680s are still ramping, it probably makes sense to pause here and make the modifications.
Just my hunch; I have no inside information.

 

[scaesare]

He and Jim Keller developed the chip and ecosystem that the output from Dojo runs on. I'd say he's ideal technically.

Not to mention they worked together at DEC and Apple prior, and one was at Intel/AMD and the other at AMD, the titans of the x86/x64 game.

Def good guys to be heading up a group...