Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

The recent OOS video, while not the best, does show Kyle getting in the back, and he is 6'1":

Thanks. It appears that Kyle had to fold in half to get in. Doesn't look very promising at this point, but perhaps it was a bad camera angle.

 

[Tony73]

When it became apparent that Tesla couldn’t be destroyed they decided to allow the SP to run to a more proper value.

The deja vu is strong with this ticker.

Darn ! Here I was thinking profitability and epic free cash flow had something to do with it.

Which begs the question: if the market is so totally rigged, why are you even here ?

 

[Orbit]

Really? I've had more family and friends ask me about buying a Tesla in the last 1 month than over the last 5 years since I bought my Tesla LR 3. Of course, this is totally anecdotal but I detect a slight sea change in acceptance of EVs from people who haven't been hyperfocused on Teslas like us.

I agree that EVs are becoming more mainstream as they go to the next phase of the adoption curve.

Maybe I could have more clearly specified growth rate.
I think 3/Y growth will continue, but that an inflection point has been crossed in the growth rate, and it won’t continue at 50% for 3/Y in the medium term of 2 to 3 years. Maybe in 2024. I doubt it for 2025.

Unless there are big drops in interest rates, and with the US $7500 tax credit going away for some models, I think 2.5 million 3/Y in 2024 is doubtful, and 3.5 million in 2025 is unlikely.

Could be wrong of course.

 

[Tony73]

Your attempt at diversion has failed

I would suggest you calm down. I never attacked you or anyone else.

 

[mongo]

I think there are only sufficient 18650 cells available to make around 65,000 Model S/X per year. We might find that new cells/packs are needed for the Roadster and these can also be used in Model S/X. Fremont could eventually make 100,000-120,000 Model S/X.

They built 71k in 2022 and 70k in 2023. In 2018, Tesla delivered 99,394 S&X. Have those cell lines been decommissioned or converted to 2170 since then?

 

[Tony73]

They built 71k in 2022 and 70k in 2023. In 2018, Tesla delivered 99,394 S&X. Have those cell lines been decommissioned or converted to 2170 since then?

Average pack size was smaller in 2018. There was still a 70kwh S/X back then and it had over a 50% take rate.

If they are only making LR and Plaid, 75k sounds about right

 

[NicoV]

They built 71k in 2022 and 70k in 2023. In 2018, Tesla delivered 99,394 S&X. Have those cell lines been decommissioned or converted to 2170 since then?

The bulk of S/X were 70kWh models in 2018, not exclusively 105kWh models like now.

 

[Zero CO2]

The bulk of S/X were 70kWh models in 2018, not exclusively 105kWh models like now.

i thought they were 75kwh and 100kwh at that time the 70 kwh was short lived ~ 2015

 

[Tony73]

i thought they were 75kwh and 100kwh at that time the 70 kwh was short lived ~ 2015

I think you’re right.

 

[Drumheller]

I have never heard a bull complain when delta hedging by MM pumps a bull run even more. When MMs defend a put wall, that is perfectly OK. It cuts both ways. That is the nature of the beast.

I stated a few years ago, and still feel this way, that the stock market should consist of buy, hold, and sell only. No options. No virtual shares.

 

[RubberToe]

Thanks. It appears that Kyle had to fold in half to get in. Doesn't look very promising at this point, but perhaps it was a bad camera angle.

Of note in that Kyle video is that he said over 50% of the people he talked to didn't know what the Cybertruck was. Tesla is still a mystery to much of the general population, or at least the Cybertruck is.

RT

 

[jerry33]

Of note in that Kyle video is that he said over 50% of the people he talked to didn't know what the Cybertruck was. Tesla is still a mystery to much of the general population, or at least the Cybertruck is.

RT

That was promising for me and my friends (although I never had that much of a problem, my friends did). They are so happy I got an X.

 

[MC3OZ]

They built 71k in 2022 and 70k in 2023. In 2018, Tesla delivered 99,394 S&X. Have those cell lines been decommissioned or converted to 2170 since then?

No. I wasn't sure on the exact numbers. some 18650 cells used to go into 75D Models when they stopped making 75D production dropped to some number (from memory around 65,000). I assumed all cars being 100 kWh meant few cars could be built with the same volume of cells.

They may have sourced or ordered some additional 18650, or some might be stockpiled from earlier shutdowns.

The main point is if they have the cells and packs, the line is capable of making 100,000 Model S/X per year.

 

[ChiefRollo]

I agree that EVs are becoming more mainstream as they go to the next phase of the adoption curve.

Maybe I could have more clearly specified growth rate.
I think 3/Y growth will continue, but that an inflection point has been crossed in the growth rate, and it won’t continue at 50% for 3/Y in the medium term of 2 to 3 years. Maybe in 2024. I doubt it for 2025.

Unless there are big drops in interest rates, and with the US $7500 tax credit going away for some models, I think 2.5 million 3/Y in 2024 is doubtful, and 3.5 million in 2025 is unlikely.

Could be wrong of course.

I’m simply curious of your perspective. If the market is already developed (personal automobile) such that Tesla does not have to convince people that they need to buy a new car (it just needs to market cars that are more compelling than traditional ICE options), what about the conversion of ICE to EV vehicles (and Tesla gets its fair share of those EV’s) that’s changing to cause the inflection? Are ICE vehicles suddenly more attractive an option due to compelling value? Are non-Tesla EVs suddenly offering meaningfully greater total ownership experience and overall value? Is there a cap on the EV portion of the personal automobile pie that Tesla is about to hit? Or is it simply Tesla’s capacity tapped out…with supply falling short of demand?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Whew! Thanks GM and Barron's for setting us straight about EV demand.
And to think I was this close to selling all my TSLA shares.

 

[EQC_]

No. I wasn't sure on the exact numbers. some 18650 cells used to go into 75D Models when they stopped making 75D production dropped to some number (from memory around 65,000). I assumed all cars being 100 kWh meant few cars could be built with the same volume of cells.

They may have sourced or ordered some additional 18650, or some might be stockpiled from earlier shutdowns.

The main point is if they have the cells and packs, the line is capable of making 100,000 Model S/X per year.

I could be wrong, but I think another change is that Tesla combined more of the Model S/X production into a single line, and also removed a shift from the S/X production. So there's some balance there between optimizing the people (shifts) required and matching with the batteries available...and I can imagine there is some cleverly optimized revenue/margins/profit in the calculation.

I don't know the actual math, so these numbers are all hypothetical and rough.

• But, imagine the number of cells available is fixed. I think there might be an actual fixed number -- like, Panasonic only has so much production capacity for Tesla's 18650's in Japan, and Tesla is also required to buy a fixed amount based on the contract with Panasonic.
• Purely hypothetically, let's assume that Tesla can produce ~35,000 S/X vehilces annually per 8-hour shift at Fremont.
• Running two shifts, they could produce about 70,000 S/X's per year.
  • 70,000 Long Range batteries can consume all of the available/required batteries...
  • all 70,000 cars will be a bit higher margin.
  • Maybe some maintenance on the line can happen occasionally at night when production isn't happening.
  • There's also some extra flexibility, where if there is a production stoppage for any reason, they can "make it up" by temporarily adding more overtime or an extra shift.
• Running three shifts, they could produce 100,000 S/X's per year
  • not 105,000, since there needs to be some dedicated down time for maintenance.
  • based on the battery limits, many of the 100,000 vehicles will be lower-margin, shorter range cars.
  • And, there's no "cushion" because the line is fully used...so any reason for a production stoppage will just mean fewer cars get made.

So, in the end, perhaps it is a question of producing 70,000 high-margin cars per year, running 2 shifts and doing maintenance in non-production time, or producing 100,000 lower-margin cars per year, and requiring 3 shifts with production downtime for maintenance and less flexibility to absorb the unexpected.

 

[Todd Burch]

Hadn't seen anyone post about this yet:

Excited to see Tesla's response on the track.

 

[AudubonB]

I stated a few years ago, and still feel this way, that the stock market should consist of buy, hold, and sell only. No options. No virtual shares.

Olé!

 

[Krugerrand]

Darn ! Here I was thinking profitability and epic free cash flow had something to do with it.

Which begs the question: if the market is so totally rigged, why are you even here ?

No. The profitability and epic free cash flow and paying off debt and producing wonderful products and running the business lean and always with the purpose to reduce waste, improve efficiencies etc… was why Tesla couldn’t be destroyed via TSLA. Tesla, the company, became too strong financially that the concerted effort to destroy it, failed. There was no choice then but for the market participants to temporarily change tactics and try and make as much money as possible letting it run.

I’m here to be endlessly entertained by the likes of you. You’re hilarious.

 

[Orbit]

I’m simply curious of your perspective. If the market is already developed (personal automobile) such that Tesla does not have to convince people that they need to buy a new car (it just needs to market cars that are more compelling than traditional ICE options), what about the conversion of ICE to EV vehicles (and Tesla gets its fair share of those EV’s) that’s changing to cause the inflection? Are ICE vehicles suddenly more attractive an option due to compelling value? Are non-Tesla EVs suddenly offering meaningfully greater total ownership experience and overall value? Is there a cap on the EV portion of the personal automobile pie that Tesla is about to hit? Or is it simply Tesla’s capacity tapped out…with supply falling short of demand?

By analogy, S/X demand has more or less plateaued.
3/Y are a lower price point, and therefore in a mature market they will have significantly higher annual sales, but eventually will also plateau. Again I’d be very surprised if Tesla sell 3.8m 3/Y in 2025. (50% for next 2 years).

I think 3/Y growth rate is slowing due to a combination of;
- battery supply constraints
- battery supply constraints pushing towards relatively smaller BEVs
- governments US/Germany/Japan/Korea/China protecting their existing manufacturer (non Tesla) interests.
- decreased public reputation of Elon causing overhang and affecting mass market desirability of 3/Y
- media being threatened by Twitter and therefore pushing back on Elon and that having an effect on Tesla
- high interest rates causing affordability challenges
- continuing hollowing out of middle class in US causing affordability challenges
- significant number of people who stubbornly don’t want an EV and will take a long time to be convinced

Also Elon repeatedly saying things along the lines of “even if a car is infinitely desirable, people won’t buy it unless they can afford it, for many people the 3/Y are too expensive, therefore we need the next gen platform.”
That makes me think Tesla’s internal projections are that the 3/Y sales growth rate will slow quite soon.

I’d love to be wrong.