Imo people should be voting with the wallets and not buy magazines doing stupid hit pieces.
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Great clip. I had similar thoughts when Elon started slashing Twitter employees and some average software developer friends of mine were so convinced that Twitter will fail because of it. Because of their experience as mediocre devs in mediocre companies led by mediocre people for mediocre results. Its baffling how oblivious some people are.
Imo people should be voting with the wallets and not buy magazines doing stupid hit pieces.
A prime example of the sort of garbage FUD I don't bother even looking at any more.Maybe he’s not despicable but just high on LSD, cocaine or ecstasy all the time when he retweets things. See WSJ article. I’m glad Tesla leaders are on the record being worried about this
OK, yes a long time ago when chargers were way more scarce. It's a moving target... (or a puck to be more clear).
Great clip. I had similar thoughts when Elon started slashing Twitter employees and some average software developer friends of mine were so convinced that Twitter will fail because of it. Because of their experience as mediocre devs in mediocre companies led by mediocre people for mediocre results. Its baffling how oblivious some people are.
Talk is cheap
Let's vote!OK, yes a long time ago when chargers were way more scarce. It's a moving target... (or a puck to be more clear).
The only thing that doesn't change is change, and the only thing to fear, is fear.
Holding at 2.5M, let's just agree to disagree
Or at least put $10 on it.
China Giga-Factory is now running at 1M vehicles per year... Presumably they are not sitting on their collective laurels and will be improving on that:
what the German word for Laurels
with an announcement like this it makes me wonder if musk isn’t planning something for his post 10k tesla talk that was being mumbled between robot experts and these guys decided to try to be first
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I guess it all comes down to batteries. I hope we get some clarity on the earnings call.
its also a US-centric view. Maybe 200m is not a long way in Texas. Its a very long way in the UK. For people who don't roadtrip, its easily enough. If 200m range was a dealbreaker, the nissan leaf would be a flop. We would happily buy a 200 mile range entry-level Tesla to replace our second car.OK, yes a long time ago when chargers were way more scarce. It's a moving target... (or a puck to be more clear).
The only thing that doesn't change is change, and the only thing to fear, is fear.
Holding at 2.5M, let's just agree to disagree
Or at least put $10 on it.
Yeah, nothing against Figure at all. They seem to be making progress…but this “making coffee” demo a month after what we saw from Optimus and then claiming it as a “breakthrough” was quite underwhelming. The coffee machine was opened awkwardly, it put in a K-cup, and that was about it. Not sure I would even consider that making coffee.For anyone that wanted to follow up on this "breakthrough," it can mostly operate a Keurig machine. Provided the human places the cup for it. I think the demonstrations we've already seen Optimus do far exceed this:
2.2M. Anything more is trouble. (I would prefer 2.1M though)Yes, this is my final answer... 2.5M.
Yep, we want to talk about Tesla in here, I don't want to talk about Elon.The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
Other minor construction projects at Giga Texas include the new End-of-Line facility now under construction on the West quarter, and The Boring Tunnel between it and the main factory on the East side of the highway. These will ease workflow and logistics, which are enablers and cost control measures when high prod volume is achieved.
- Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
- Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)
- 4680 cell production: (8 lines * 25 GWh/yr/line = 200 GHh/yr by end-of-year)
With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
All this will take more than 1 year, esp. considering the Model 2 ramp which will start in a year. However, the Market should see this coming like the tide (or a tsunami). I expect Giga Texas alone to produce 2.8M+ cars in 2026 (fully ramped). Then, the Model 2 / Gen 3 lines will be cloned simultaneously in Germany, Shanghai, and Monterrey, MX. This brings Tesla to 10M/yr capacity by 2027/28. Build more GA space at the new factories and clone these lines once more to build Robotaxi, which then takes Tesla to 20M/yr by 2030. Done and dusted.
- Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
- Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
This is before Gigafactory India (yet to prove themselves able to work at Tesla speed for a high volume car). So 20M/yr prod capacity shouldn't be considered the limit: if Toyota insists on foot-dragging, then Tesla builds Giga Osaka.
Did I mention Tesla Semi for China and Europe? How about 1 Megapacktory per region? How about 6? All staffed at a ratio of 10 Teslabots : 1 Human produced at the 10M/yr 'bot factory at Giga Nevada. Obviously, this leaves significant prod. capacity to grow a retail 'bot division. The cost of labor is going down...
Cheers!
I am uncomfortable with the gathering consensus of 2.5 M vehicles for this year. Before we set a goal that will be used by the MSM to beat up on TSLA, let's at least wait until the earnings call and let management give us their best estimate. It is fair to consider battery supply, market demand, macros etc but please don't box Tesla in with your hard estimate yet.
Seriously do you actually believe this forum thread could actually box in Tesla's guidance or was your post in jest? I'm hoping the latter.I am uncomfortable with the gathering consensus of 2.5 M vehicles for this year. Before we set a goal that will be used by the MSM to beat up on TSLA, let's at least wait until the earnings call and let management give us their best estimate. It is fair to consider battery supply, market demand, macros etc but please don't box Tesla in with your hard estimate yet.
The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
- Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
- Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)