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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Imo people should be voting with the wallets and not buy magazines doing stupid hit pieces.
Great clip. I had similar thoughts when Elon started slashing Twitter employees and some average software developer friends of mine were so convinced that Twitter will fail because of it. Because of their experience as mediocre devs in mediocre companies led by mediocre people for mediocre results. Its baffling how oblivious some people are.

Talk is cheap
 
Great clip. I had similar thoughts when Elon started slashing Twitter employees and some average software developer friends of mine were so convinced that Twitter will fail because of it. Because of their experience as mediocre devs in mediocre companies led by mediocre people for mediocre results. Its baffling how oblivious some people are.

Talk is cheap

The fact that Elon can so abruptly slash Twitter staff by 80% while maintaining or improving the service shows how competent he is. It's mind-boggling to think about, especially at Elon's age. To know which staff are necessary and motivated vs bitter and corrosive is amazing (alien-level decision making). I'd like to think this was because Elon was lucky, but it seems Elon often gets "lucky" with high risk ventures.

How many people can singlehandedly do something like that with an established business without dire consequences (or at least taking the service down for a couple weeks)? I'd like to know what drugs Elon's on.
 
OK, yes a long time ago when chargers were way more scarce. It's a moving target... (or a puck to be more clear).
The only thing that doesn't change is change, and the only thing to fear, is fear.

Holding at 2.5M, let's just agree to disagree ;)
Or at least put $10 on it.
Let's vote!
So far it's 100% @ 2.5M. 🤣

 
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China Giga-Factory is now running at 1M vehicles per year... Presumably they are not sitting on their collective laurels and will be improving on that:

Tesla stated a few earnings letters ago that Giga Shanghai was now at full production, which would not increase meaningfully. Then they increased to 1.1M

what the German word for Laurels

It's "Lorbeeren", but I think the word you're looking for is "schadenfreude". ;)

Cheers!
 
Let's vote!
So far it's 100% @ 2.5M. 🤣



lookagain.gif
 
with an announcement like this it makes me wonder if musk isn’t planning something for his post 10k tesla talk that was being mumbled between robot experts and these guys decided to try to be first

View attachment 1006701


For anyone that wanted to follow up on this "breakthrough," it can mostly operate a Keurig machine. Provided the human places the cup for it. I think the demonstrations we've already seen Optimus do far exceed this:

 
I guess it all comes down to batteries. I hope we get some clarity on the earnings call.

The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
  1. Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
  2. Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)
  3. 4680 cell production: (8 lines * 25 GWh/yr/line = 200 GHh/yr by end-of-year)
Other minor construction projects at Giga Texas include the new End-of-Line facility now under construction on the West quarter, and The Boring Tunnel between it and the main factory on the East side of the highway. These will ease workflow and logistics, which are enablers and cost control measures when high prod volume is achieved.

With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
  1. Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  2. Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  3. Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
All this will take more than 1 year, esp. considering the Model 2 ramp which will start in a year. However, the Market should see this coming like the tide (or a tsunami). I expect Giga Texas alone to produce 2.8M+ cars in 2026 (fully ramped). Then, the Model 2 / Gen 3 lines will be cloned simultaneously in Germany, Shanghai, and Monterrey, MX. This brings Tesla to 10M/yr capacity by 2027/28. Build more GA space at the new factories and clone these lines once more to build Robotaxi, which then takes Tesla to 20M/yr by 2030. Done and dusted.

This is before Gigafactory India (yet to prove themselves able to work at Tesla speed for a high volume car). So 20M/yr prod capacity shouldn't be considered the limit: if Toyota insists on foot-dragging, then Tesla builds Giga Osaka.

Did I mention Tesla Semi for China and Europe? How about 1 Megapacktory per region? How about 6? All staffed at a ratio of 10 Teslabots : 1 Human produced at the 10M/yr 'bot factory at Giga Nevada. Obviously, this leaves significant prod. capacity to grow a retail 'bot division. The cost of labor is going down...

Cheers!
 
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OK, yes a long time ago when chargers were way more scarce. It's a moving target... (or a puck to be more clear).
The only thing that doesn't change is change, and the only thing to fear, is fear.

Holding at 2.5M, let's just agree to disagree ;)
Or at least put $10 on it.
its also a US-centric view. Maybe 200m is not a long way in Texas. Its a very long way in the UK. For people who don't roadtrip, its easily enough. If 200m range was a dealbreaker, the nissan leaf would be a flop. We would happily buy a 200 mile range entry-level Tesla to replace our second car.
 
Musk is on record of hitting the Ambien (zolpidem) hard in 2017 and 2018 especially. Zolpidem is documented of causing a host of erratic behaviors, from making impulsive 'unacceptable comments' down to people gorging themselves in the middle of the night with absolutely no memory of it afterwards. Or even going for a sleepdrive, modern society's evolution from a sleepwalk.

“It is often a choice of no sleep or Ambien,” Musk told the New York Times in an interview published on Thursday, which came after the Tesla founder claimed on Twitter that he was considering taking the company private.

If you want a reason for erratic behavior, I would most definitely look here before I would consider the long list of schedule I 'illegal' drugs that the WSJ listed and theoretical employees fretted about. So yeah, not those dirty street drugs one has to worry about but rather the nice clean FDA approved big pharma favorites.
 
For anyone that wanted to follow up on this "breakthrough," it can mostly operate a Keurig machine. Provided the human places the cup for it. I think the demonstrations we've already seen Optimus do far exceed this:

Yeah, nothing against Figure at all. They seem to be making progress…but this “making coffee” demo a month after what we saw from Optimus and then claiming it as a “breakthrough” was quite underwhelming. The coffee machine was opened awkwardly, it put in a K-cup, and that was about it. Not sure I would even consider that making coffee.
 
The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
  1. Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
  2. Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)
  3. 4680 cell production: (8 lines * 25 GWh/yr/line = 200 GHh/yr by end-of-year)
Other minor construction projects at Giga Texas include the new End-of-Line facility now under construction on the West quarter, and The Boring Tunnel between it and the main factory on the East side of the highway. These will ease workflow and logistics, which are enablers and cost control measures when high prod volume is achieved.

With the addition of these facilities, Giga Texas will have the following nominal vehicle capacity:
  1. Cybertruck: 333K/yr w. 123 KWh Cybertruck (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  2. Model Y: 500K/yr w. 82 KWh structural pack (50 GWh/yr cells req'd)
  3. Model 2: 2M/yr w. 41 KWh (100 GWh/yr cells req'd)
All this will take more than 1 year, esp. considering the Model 2 ramp which will start in a year. However, the Market should see this coming like the tide (or a tsunami). I expect Giga Texas alone to produce 2.8M+ cars in 2026 (fully ramped). Then, the Model 2 / Gen 3 lines will be cloned simultaneously in Germany, Shanghai, and Monterrey, MX. This brings Tesla to 10M/yr capacity by 2027/28. Build more GA space at the new factories and clone these lines once more to build Robotaxi, which then takes Tesla to 20M/yr by 2030. Done and dusted.

This is before Gigafactory India (yet to prove themselves able to work at Tesla speed for a high volume car). So 20M/yr prod capacity shouldn't be considered the limit: if Toyota insists on foot-dragging, then Tesla builds Giga Osaka.

Did I mention Tesla Semi for China and Europe? How about 1 Megapacktory per region? How about 6? All staffed at a ratio of 10 Teslabots : 1 Human produced at the 10M/yr 'bot factory at Giga Nevada. Obviously, this leaves significant prod. capacity to grow a retail 'bot division. The cost of labor is going down...

Cheers!
Yep, we want to talk about Tesla in here, I don't want to talk about Elon.

The next earnings call should bring about a welcome reset in here, I expect a lot of new information..

Including :-
  • Technology updates - 4680, Optimus and FSD.
  • The progress of ramps and construction projects at existing factories.
  • Possibly new factories and progress on Mexico.
  • New products - Elon seems likely to say more than he should here.
  • The purpose of newly acquired facilities e.g. Taylor Texas

it will depend in part on the quality of the questions asked,
 
I am uncomfortable with the gathering consensus of 2.5 M vehicles for this year. Before we set a goal that will be used by the MSM to beat up on TSLA, let's at least wait until the earnings call and let management give us their best estimate. It is fair to consider battery supply, market demand, macros etc but please don't box Tesla in with your hard estimate yet.
 
I am uncomfortable with the gathering consensus of 2.5 M vehicles for this year. Before we set a goal that will be used by the MSM to beat up on TSLA, let's at least wait until the earnings call and let management give us their best estimate. It is fair to consider battery supply, market demand, macros etc but please don't box Tesla in with your hard estimate yet.

Looks more like a 2.3M projection is gathering consensus according to the poll results so far.
 
I am uncomfortable with the gathering consensus of 2.5 M vehicles for this year. Before we set a goal that will be used by the MSM to beat up on TSLA, let's at least wait until the earnings call and let management give us their best estimate. It is fair to consider battery supply, market demand, macros etc but please don't box Tesla in with your hard estimate yet.
Seriously do you actually believe this forum thread could actually box in Tesla's guidance or was your post in jest? I'm hoping the latter.
 
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The floodgates will open at Giga Texas when these 3 construction projects are online:
  1. Cathode plant at Giga Texas (Q1 begins testing & validation)
  2. Lithium refinery at Corpus Christi (H1 begins production)

No way production begins 1H. Maybe production start 4Q.

It's nice to see progress in Texas, but what's going on with the 4680 cell line expansion in Nevada? Or the semi factory expansion in Nevada? A whole lot of nothing there. Likewise giga Mexico?