Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tony73]

Those are some optimistic numbers you pulled out of the Underworld.

Superbowl ads work (maybe/sort of) because people already know the brands and have already been pounded for literally years at every turn.

Who said they didn’t know the brand. Said they didn’t know how much the price had dropped of late. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people of America who know what Tesla is but think a model Y starts at least $10k above what it actually costs and have no idea there is an FTC. Incidentally over the years, many brands have made their debut on the superbowl

Superbowl ads are not for education.

Says who ? You ? Is that like some immutable law of physics ?

 

[MC3OZ]

What are we waiting for? We have the pieces, all of them, including factory BESS plus energy management.

In this video Brain and Bradford discuss whether battery cells or Silicon Carbide could be the factor slowing up the Megapack ramp:-

The recent decision to build a factory in the US to make CATL LFP cells implies cells may be the limiting factor for now.

If we consider the mission, 20 million vehicles by 2003 and 1 TWh of energy storage batteries, might add up to a lot of Silicon Carbide.

The Jeff Dahn team has done some early stage research on a battery which uses Silicon Carbide it is a "great" battery but does have some "issues". We are not going to see a battery using Silicon Carbide before 2030, if we see it at all.

I've had a hunch for sometime that Tesla may eventually make their own Silicon Carbide.

If the only issue is cells then in most locations CATL LFP equipment can be used to make the cells. Ideally CATL builds and operates the factory, but in some situations as per the US. Tesla may need to do it.

In India my hunch is Tesla may need to work with a local Indian cell supply, and perhaps use Sodium-Ion batteries.

The edge that Tesla has is in power electronics and software.

For energy storage I think the preference is that others build the factories to make the cells. Building a battery factory is a step beyond building a Megapack factory in terms of capex, timeframe, staff and raw materials requirements.

Should Tesla need to build a Silicon Carbide factory, they will only need 1 for worldwide supply, probably located in North America. I hope they are at least doing some "stealth mode" R&D on that.

 

[MC3OZ]

Who said they didn’t know the brand. Said they didn’t know how much the price had dropped of late. Believe it or not, there are plenty of people of America who know what Tesla is but think a model Y starts at least $10k above what it actually costs and have no idea there is an FTC. Incidentally over the years, many brands have made their debut on the superbowl

Says who ? You ? Is that like some immutable law of physics ?

I can think of one more good reason to do the Superbowl ad, just to tick that box and look like a "mainstream", "regular" company to the watching audience.

Ignorance of Tesla expends beyond the price, many are unaware of how many cars Tesla makes and sells. The implicit message in Superbowl ad is this company is big enough to afford a Superbowl ad.

And once it is done the results can be evaluated and the debate ends, because the results determine if it is an exercise worth repeating...

The content doesn't matter that much but video footage of the Semi driving up an icy road, Cybertuck off-road, Model S on a track should be included, then just nominate the Model Y price with the IRA deduction.

If the video montage is compelling enough, some may replay it, or show it to others, especially if it includes things they did not expect to see. Tesla already has a lot of the footage they would need.

There is more or less a whole year to put this together if they want to.

 

[Carl Raymond]

In this video Brain and Bradford discuss whether battery cells or Silicon Carbide could be the factor slowing up the Megapack ramp:-

The recent decision to build a factory in the US to make CATL LFP cells implies cells may be the limiting factor for now.

If we consider the mission, 20 million vehicles by 2003 and 1 TWh of energy storage batteries, might add up to a lot of Silicon Carbide.

The Jeff Dahn team has done some early stage research on a battery which uses Silicon Carbide it is a "great" battery but does have some "issues". We are not going to see a battery using Silicon Carbide before 2030, if we see it at all.

I've had a hunch for sometime that Tesla may eventually make their own Silicon Carbide.

If the only issue is cells then in most locations CATL LFP equipment can be used to make the cells. Ideally CATL builds and operates the factory, but in some situations as per the US. Tesla may need to do it.

In India my hunch is Tesla may need to work with a local Indian cell supply, and perhaps use Sodium-Ion batteries.

The edge that Tesla has is in power electronics and software.

For energy storage I think the preference is that others build the factories to make the cells. Building a battery factory is a step beyond building a Megapack factory in terms of capex, timeframe, staff and raw materials requirements.

Should Tesla need to build a Silicon Carbide factory, they will only need 1 for worldwide supply, probably located in North America. I hope they are at least doing some "stealth mode" R&D on that.

This is confusing me. Silicon carbide is in the power electronics, used to put AC into the grid from cells which are obviously DC. Also to charge Megapacks from grid.

Is it also used in cells? The exact same super hard material?

If there was a shortage, it would be used for the *essential* power electronics. Putting it in cells would be an unaffordable luxury.

Seems likely there is a shortage. It explains a slow Megapack ramp occurring alongside declining LFP prices.

 

[Mengy]

How about a simple voice over message:

“Bet you think Teslas are expensive. FACT, The Tesla model 3 and Y cost less than the average new car. FACT: Tesla model Y is the best selling car in the world and comes with $7500 POS tax credit. What do you think now ?”

Is delivering that message to over half of America’s 30-55 years olds worth $7million.

Edit: I’m undecided between Mr T or James Earl Jones for the voiceover

Nah, Morgan Freeman.

 

[heltok]

In this video Brain and Bradford discuss whether battery cells or Silicon Carbide could be the factor slowing up the Megapack ramp:-

The recent decision to build a factory in the US to make CATL LFP cells implies cells may be the limiting factor for now.

If we consider the mission, 20 million vehicles by 2003 and 1 TWh of energy storage batteries, might add up to a lot of Silicon Carbide.

The Jeff Dahn team has done some early stage research on a battery which uses Silicon Carbide it is a "great" battery but does have some "issues". We are not going to see a battery using Silicon Carbide before 2030, if we see it at all.

I've had a hunch for sometime that Tesla may eventually make their own Silicon Carbide.

If the only issue is cells then in most locations CATL LFP equipment can be used to make the cells. Ideally CATL builds and operates the factory, but in some situations as per the US. Tesla may need to do it.

In India my hunch is Tesla may need to work with a local Indian cell supply, and perhaps use Sodium-Ion batteries.

The edge that Tesla has is in power electronics and software.

For energy storage I think the preference is that others build the factories to make the cells. Building a battery factory is a step beyond building a Megapack factory in terms of capex, timeframe, staff and raw materials requirements.

Should Tesla need to build a Silicon Carbide factory, they will only need 1 for worldwide supply, probably located in North America. I hope they are at least doing some "stealth mode" R&D on that.

In video he is mostly trying to find some plausible explanation for why the margins are not super high. Maybe some component is super expensive?! There are not a lot of components and we know that the other components are not expensive. So maybe the inverter is super expensive?! Or maybe it's not and the margins are very high but deferred revenue, ramping costs etc are artificially hurting margins for now and they will rise in the future. Anyway even if inverters are super expensive and difficult to source, I would assume that Tesla/Elon are working hard to in-house it and cut that cost and increase the supply very soon... One way or another the margins will eventually go up to where they should be.

 

[Krugerrand]

Says who ? You ? Is that like some immutable law of physics ?

If you want to play that card, then I’ll play it too.

Who says anything you’ve posted is remotely accurate? Show me multi company documentation for the last 3 Superbowls (from companies that never did a single conventional TV, radio or newspaper ad prior to the event) that indicated a 30s blurb undid a decade of fossil fuel and media FUD for said companies?

Anecdotally, because that’s the best either of us has, I didn’t suddenly increase purchasing avocados from Mexico, Doritos, nor Budweiser beer, Clydesdales or Dalmatians because of those commercials. Neither have I bought a vehicle nor googled about a vehicle advertised during the Superbowl (or any commercial at any time). I can’t even remember last year’s commercials. I don’t know anyone who has either. Granted, I’m sure someone has. Not @Christine69420 though. And I’m pretty sure @unk45 hasn’t either. For sure he’d prefer avocados from Brazil.

 

[MC3OZ]

Is it also used in cells? The exact same super hard material?

It isn't in the current cells, there was R&D being done on using it in future cells. Probably in the anode with very significant energy density benefits.

It is rare/expensive, because it is hard to make, but the raw materials are abundant.

There are a few explanations for the delay in the Megapack ramp, cells are more likely than Silicon Carbide... Demand isn't an issue, unless Troy is tracking Megapacks

Note: According to the rules, this post counts as mention of demand.... (twice)

 

[Artful Dodger]

In video he is mostly trying to find some plausible explanation for why the margins are not super high. Maybe some component is super expensive?

No, Bradford is just uninformed. He conflates the GWh delivered per quarterly reports with Revenue Recognition: they are NOT the same thing. There are numerous milestones which must be reached following delivery of the Megapack to the customer site, ie: connection to the grid, commissioning, etc. These take time, just look how long it's been since the Giga Texas megapacks were lifted by crane onto their permanent mounts and they are still not connected.

Further, Bradford still has not disabued himself of his mistaken notion that Lathrop had 40 GWh installed capacity last fall, and they were going to double it to 80. That's just wrong, I have no idea where he got that idea. The 1st half of the Lathrop Megafactory was sized for 5K megapacks per year, or 20 GWh given 4MWh storage per Megapack. This is what Tesla and Drew told us a year ago, did Bradford forget, or did he trust his (faulty) memory instead of locating the source of the information? The 2nd half is what is being build in 2024, again per Drew on the 2023 Q4 Conference Call.

Sorry, but Brad is a investment advisor, and doesn't demonstrate strong skills for project mgmt.

 

[phoggy123]

By "major turnaround in the stock this year" what do you mean, up or down? It has gone nowhere in the last year.
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Couldn't disagree more about waiting to invest. Now is exactly the time to deploy your available capital. The stock will be climbing once it is clear those cheaper cars are going to yield income. Wondering if you don't believe Tesla when they explain what is going on? They say they are "in a lull" between major expansion phases. Couldn't agree more. The Cybertruck and cheaper car will certainly enjoy some big production levels in the near future - just not yet. I remember Tesla explaining in an ER "demamd for Model Y has been so massive that we are delaying the Cybertruck to out our resources into expanding Model Y production." At the time, Model Y ordering wait times were nearly a year!!! Now, that has vaporised, and lo and behold the Model Y is the world's largest-selling vehicle of any type. Seems like Tesla were telling us the truth back in the day. So I believe them when they say they are in a lull. What vehicle have they produced that was not a hit? (I suppose you can debate about the Model X) The time to buy stock is not during a phase of success. It's before that phase of success - in a lull that looks (especially if you expose yourself to what Tim Higgins writes) like the company is going nowhere. i.e. NOW.

So I think for retail you are correct that if you believe in FSD and their ability to sell a mass market small car then by all means, average down. But my point is that retails ability to move the stock is limited right now and we aren't in a short squeeze scenario like 2020. This is the most underinvested stock in the top 8 stocks in the S+P. So until they decide it's worth their time, I don't see this moving into ATH this year. If there is a draw down in the S+P thats at ATH it's going to add fuel to the fire of this downturn.

It's beyond me that Tesla would rather crush margins to the tune of 1K+ In temporary discounts rather than a full scale traditional media advertisement strategy. drop 250M and see what happens.

 

[heltok]

Omar takes Gali out for a drive with FSD v12:

A lot better at some situations. Main issues seems to be that it's been tuned to be extra cautious in this version. This is by design as at it's a small release and they want to make sure it's performing well before they remove the guard rails.

Anyway I am reminded of Karpathy's talk about software 2.0. There he talks about the problem of deciding if a car is parked or not. The car is park when the neural network says it's parked. Hotz was talking on the same lines saying that non end2end is impossible, there are so many complex situation that are impossible to code for. Like saying if a picture is a cat or dog. It's a cat if the neural network says so. Here is the video.

5 years later his vision is coming true.

 

[capster]

I think he missed the fact that the estimates are in fact very helpful to the 99.9% of the investing public that don’t religiously follow the daily/weekly/monthly tesla registrations in dozens of different countries, you know the people that aren’t like us freaks.

Oh come on, I ignore estimates and I’m pretty much all in on Tesla as well as following this forum about as religiously I do as anything.

Why would’nt the "investing public" just look at the production and delivery numbers rather than estimates? Not that I think many even do that much—otherwise there’d be no value for those paying for the FUD.

For those with experience with the stock, has anyone noticed much consistent correlation between the facts, much less sketchy estimates, and the near term price action?

 

[heltok]

Tesla confirms no Model Y refresh coming this year

Tesla has confirmed in an internal email to employees that there will be no Model Y refresh coming in 2024. Last year a report emerged that Tesla was working on a refresh of the Model […]

driveteslacanada.ca

In an attempt to clear things up, Tesla has sent out an email to employees that no refresh Model Y will be launching in North America this year.

According to the email, a copy of which was obtained by Drive Tesla, the automaker said “it is important we communicate transparently that there is no refresh for the Model Y launching this year.”

Tesla ends the email by saying “there is no better time for customers to start driving the world’s best-selling vehicle,” highlighting the incentives available for the electric SUV.

 

[tslagreen]

Wait, I though the Uber bulls were saying that the point of sale EV credit would boost Model Y demand?

There has been no significant boost in Model Y production.

Interest rates have not increased any further.

So all that can really explain it is…

Demand issues.

Ever heard of a President's Day sale? This is Tesla's version. Sales of cars and other items are slow this time of year.

 

[2daMoon]

Oh come on, I ignore estimates and I’m pretty much all in on Tesla as well as following this forum about as religiously I do as anything.

Why would’nt the "investing public" just look at the production and delivery numbers rather than estimates? Not that I think many even do that much—otherwise there’d be no value for those paying for the FUD.

For those with experience with the stock, has anyone noticed much consistent correlation between the facts, much less sketchy estimates, and the near term price action?

Agreed.

Most people will make their purchase decisions based more upon their feelings than upon facts.

Anyone with an analytical bone in their body have suffered through life at the whim of one emotional decision-maker after another. Whether that was in a personal relationship, business relationship, or some other context, it is a constant. Likely some lizard-brain thing that got us to this point in the survival of the fittest competition.

People act upon fear more than any other emotion.

We continue to wait patiently for a warm blanket of FOMO to fall upon tomorrow's buyers of TSLA. When it does, there won't be any obvious logical reason behind the growth of this rush back into TSLA.

Though, at this point we may find ourselves sitting comfortably behind the keyboard while listening to the William Tell Overture, giggling as we follow the SP on its next meteoric rise.

HODL

 

[Mengy]

Tesla confirms no Model Y refresh coming this year

Tesla has confirmed in an internal email to employees that there will be no Model Y refresh coming in 2024. Last year a report emerged that Tesla was working on a refresh of the Model […]

driveteslacanada.ca

In an attempt to clear things up, Tesla has sent out an email to employees that no refresh Model Y will be launching in North America this year.

According to the email, a copy of which was obtained by Drive Tesla, the automaker said “it is important we communicate transparently that there is no refresh for the Model Y launching this year.”

Tesla ends the email by saying “there is no better time for customers to start driving the world’s best-selling vehicle,” highlighting the incentives available for the electric SUV.

If true that is disappointing news.

 

[dhanson865]

In an attempt to clear things up, Tesla has sent out an email to employees that no refresh Model Y will be launching in North America this year.

According to the email, a copy of which was obtained by Drive Tesla, the automaker said “it is important we communicate transparently that there is no refresh for the Model Y launching this year.”

Tesla ends the email by saying “there is no better time for customers to start driving the world’s best-selling vehicle,” highlighting the incentives available for the electric SUV.

Which means China will get the refresh this year, then Europe, then North America (say Jan 2025?). We'll be seeing the refresh this year, we just won't be getting it in the US.

 

[geometro]

If true that is disappointing news.

Why did people expect a new Y in NA this year? They just released the new 3 a few weeks ago.

Likely they’ll do the same with new Y… launch in Asia then Europe and then NA.

 

[SOULPEDL]

If true that is disappointing news.

Not if you already own one. I don't need additional Model Y depreciation on top of the deep price cuts.

The notice likely means people were holding off for the refresh. Maybe that's how the rumor started - wishing too hard.

 

[MartinAustin]

Not if you already own one. I don't need additional Model Y depreciation on top of the deep price cuts.

The notice likely means people were holding off for the refresh. Maybe that's how the rumor started - wishing too hard.

There are/were some leaked internal documents referring to a version of the Model Y called "Juniper." The media doesn't know what it is but is happy to report what they think it is, especially if their reports accidentally result in a lowering of demand for the current Model Y. News of new models and/or refreshes is always Ratings Gold for websites that rely on clicks for revenue. e.g. Electrek