Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Humans will still be adding the training data, test data, and monitoring the real world performance on the internal fleet to control and validate improvements.

They'll know the "what", if not the "how".

I think the differences in improvements will begin to be subtle that only large enough fleet can detect the improvements, meaning there will not be enough just bay area tesla employees to conclude anything that warrants a release note. This will be a sign that we are getting closer.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Dip...
Was it the CPI coming in higher?

 

[Knightshade]

Soooo, speculation on wether tesla will best 2 million vehicles this year?

I know most people here think that's a sure thing, that Tesla will 100% produce over 2 million vehicles this year, but I think it will be close.

Say Troy Teslike is correct and Q1 comes in at 450K, we'd need to see something like Q2=500K, Q3=525K, Q4=550K for the rest of the year in order to get over the 2 million mark. Q2 basically matches Q4 2023, and then it's 5% growth for Q3 and Q4 to do 2 million. That growth would likely come from Austin and Berlin increasing production along with a little bit from the CT line. That's doable as long as there aren't any hiccups along the way.

So it really comes down to how fast Austin, Berlin, and the CT can ramp for 2024.

I think 450k is Troys last "public" estimate but it was suggested his latest patreon one (more recent) is significantly lower than that (I saw a remark in the 'other' thread that it was a number Elon likes FWIW)

Likewise Morgan Stanley, Gary Black, Deutsche Bank, and others- between Troys data and the meeting with Tesla IR- have lowered their own estimates below 2M for the year as well as into the 42x range for Q1.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Wake up people...

 

[CHGolferJim]

Cool. I'm not interested in buying a Cybertruck right now but given the terms, it's nice to know that they consider me a long-term shareholder.

And maybe this approach will be used once ordinary CT are made available

 

[Mengy]

I think 450k is Troys last "public" estimate but it was suggested his latest patreon one (more recent) is significantly lower than that (I saw a remark in the 'other' thread that it was a number Elon likes FWIW)

Likewise Morgan Stanley, Gary Black, Deutsche Bank, and others- between Troys data and the meeting with Tesla IR- have lowered their own estimates below 2M for the year as well as into the 42x range for Q1.

If we come in around 420K that would be horrible, that's less than Q1 2023 levels. No growth Q1 23 to Q1 24 and we can expect to see TSLA retract below $150 I'd say. That would also make hitting 2 million produced for 2024 very difficult.

 

[Stormy24]

Dip...
Was it the CPI coming in higher?

Nope ev sell morning to buy NVIDIA.

 

[Knightshade]

If we come in around 420K that would be horrible, that's Q1 2023 levels. No growth Q1 23 to Q1 24 and we can expect to see TSLA retract below $150 I'd say. That would also make hitting 2 million produced for 2024 very difficult.

Yup.

You can counter argue that a bit by saying flat Q1 is a combo of:

Slow CT ramp, more weirdly (but factual based on VIN data) slow Highland US ramp, and whatever shipping issues... but given several of these lowered all-year estimates came after talking to Tesla IR I'm not sure they're as quickly/easily solved as some are hoping for-- and you've got genuine all-year headwinds like fewer/gone government incentives on EVs in both US and Europe compared to '23, Tesla already offering incentives on Highland in China, or the fact Berlin has remained below max capacity long after it could've ramped more if there were enough more buyers.

 

[evermore]

Tesla have not yet sent the foundation series offer to every reservation holder. This is actually an act to reward long term shareholders who are also diamond handing and loyal. The eligibility criteria is steep. Less than 1% of tesla shareholders has 6 figures in the stock and have not sold over 50% of it at some point. Tesla knows a CT is worth 2x the price aftermarket so demand is unlimited until that resale value drops to retail prices. Because who wouldn't want a car that appreciate 2x at delivery...that's like a 100k gift from tesla.

What's the resale value of an item that contractually can't be resold?

 

[uscbucsfan]

What's the resale value of an item that contractually can't be resold?

People are selling them for a ton of money.

So far there's only been 1 story of someone being punished by having their other CT pre-orders cancelled. Nothing on Tesla going after the profits, yet.

 

[Snerruc]

Hmmm…..a lot of people were sure Tesla would sell 2.5 million cars this year. Then it was 2.1-2.2 million. Now uncertainty if they can sell 2 million. Quite a change in attitude on the forum lately.

 

[Krugerrand]

I know most people here think that's a sure thing, that Tesla will 100% produce over 2 million vehicles this year, but I think it will be close.

Close only counts in horseshoes and grenades.

2,000,001 is over 2,000,000. Tesla will at least do 2,000,001. I’m betting 2.2m and I won’t be adjusting my estimate every 6 days. Final answer.

 

[Krugerrand]

Cathie struggles because her models are looney. Have you actually read them? absolutely nonsense.

Andrea James was loony. Cathy was loony with her first valuation model too. And yet.

It’s hard for a lot of people to digest and accept a never before seen event. If it’s never happened, it can’t happen. Right? No way rockets can become reusable. No way man will land, let alone live on Mars. No way Tesla will become a multi-trillion dollar company. No way a new charging standard will be adopted around the world. No way will there be a planet wide pandemic. No way will coastal cities vanish beneath rising seas.

Wait for it.

 

[cab]

Wake up people...

View attachment 1027025

If you like it below $180, you're going to love it below $160!

 

[Mengy]

Close only counts in horseshoes and grenades.

2,000,001 is over 2,000,000. Tesla will at least do 2,000,001. I’m betting 2.2m and I won’t be adjusting my estimate every 6 days. Final answer.

I was "predicting" 2.1 million for 2024 in my Excel model, but if Q1 24 comes in close to 420K then my conservative model is already terribly optimistic.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well growth looks to be under the average 20-30% for this year and maybe next.

It’s March. You may be right, but it’s a bit early in the year to call it. Don’t you think?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hmmm…..a lot of people were sure Tesla would sell 2.5 million cars this year. Then it was 2.1-2.2 million. Now uncertainty if they can sell 2 million. Quite a change in attitude on the forum lately.

Not I.

 

[tslagreen]

If we come in around 420K that would be horrible, that's less than Q1 2023 levels. No growth Q1 23 to Q1 24 and we can expect to see TSLA retract below $150 I'd say. That would also make hitting 2 million produced for 2024 very difficult.

Keep in mind the average auto loan in Feb. 2023 for new cars was around 7.48%. It is now about 9.68%. Certainly has an effect on sales.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Andrea James was loony. Cathy was loony with her first valuation model too. And yet.

It’s hard for a lot of people to digest and accept a never before seen event. If it’s never happened, it can’t happen. Right? No way rockets can become reusable. No way man will land, let alone live on Mars. No way Tesla will become a multi-trillion dollar company. No way a new charging standard will be adopted around the world. No way will there be a planet wide pandemic. No way will coastal cities vanish beneath rising seas.

Wait for it.

Here is a sample bear and bull case for 2025, which Ark Invest published in 2021:

Via - https://www.ark-invest.com/articles/valuation-models/tesla-price-target-2

Please tell me how either the bull or bear cases are based in reality.

Here was their 2024 price target and scenarios, published in 2020:

Via - https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target

In December 2021, she stated she expected 40% CAGR from her funds. Let's take a look:

Looks very close!

Anyone taking this woman seriously does so at their own peril.

 

[UncaNed]

Hmmm…..a lot of people were sure Tesla would sell 2.5 million cars this year. Then it was 2.1-2.2 million. Now uncertainty if they can sell 2 million. Quite a change in attitude on the forum lately.

Yeah. I thought the plan was to keep production high and lower prices if necessary... to support the mission.