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Tesla Used Inventory Down 30%?
- Thread starter spy4007
- Start date
Late to party here but this thread matches what I've noticed. I bought a 2015 model S in early April when prices and inventory were dropping as opposed to waiting for June to roll around to see if post facelift 2016 leases started becoming more populous 36 months later. Given the prices on the few post facelifts available in April, I felt buying at that time provided more value for what I was looking for. Now June is here and I'm checking to see if I made the right move and used inventory is minimal. Someone said a Tesla rep mentioned there would be more available late this year. Seems like it would make sense on their end to hold the used 2016 post facelifts, save performance or other ludicrous high margin variations, to avoid cannibalizing demand for the new inventory Model S (or potentially Model 3s) they want to sell off and make way for the next Model S refresh later this year. Once that's out, someome looking at post refresh won't get the same "latest model" look they would have gotten going used. Glad I bought when I did but excited to see what the next refresh brings.
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I am on the opposite side. I bought in January, but I regret not waiting until the end of this year.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
You guys who are waiting still assume that used inventory will EVER rebound to the level it once was.
As of right now in terms of the Tesla direct used car market it's a sellers market due to supply v demand and we have zero proof that the #'s will ever be where they were a year ago. Some random sales person doesn't constitute proof as historically this ends up wrong more often than it's right.
I still think that Elon's "fix" for the used car issue was to just get out of the used car business. They now just low-ball trade offers to widen the margin but mostly to deter people from giving them their used cars. They don't want your car but if they can make tens of thousands of profit on each one they'll take on that burden.
As a result, they take in fewer cars so they're not spread thin, the cars they take in are for much less out-of-pocket and they can sell them for even more since they're not competing against themselves for similar cars. Win, win, win. Why would they go back? People still buy the new ones they make they just pull their trade and deal with it themselves. Until we see new sales dip forcing Tesla to offer more for trades to get more new units out the door they will continue low-balling trade values just to take advantage of those dumb enough to accept 50% of what their car books for.
Until they get someone high up that has their finger on the pulse of the used car market and how to make it profitable on a large scale I feel like this is their "solution" and we may never see a massive used inventory like we once did. All these people waiting for "end of quarter for the numbers to spike again" have been wrong four times in a row now. I guess the "end of year spike" is just around the corner and the new thing to wait for and be wrong about. ROFL
As of right now in terms of the Tesla direct used car market it's a sellers market due to supply v demand and we have zero proof that the #'s will ever be where they were a year ago. Some random sales person doesn't constitute proof as historically this ends up wrong more often than it's right.
I still think that Elon's "fix" for the used car issue was to just get out of the used car business. They now just low-ball trade offers to widen the margin but mostly to deter people from giving them their used cars. They don't want your car but if they can make tens of thousands of profit on each one they'll take on that burden.
As a result, they take in fewer cars so they're not spread thin, the cars they take in are for much less out-of-pocket and they can sell them for even more since they're not competing against themselves for similar cars. Win, win, win. Why would they go back? People still buy the new ones they make they just pull their trade and deal with it themselves. Until we see new sales dip forcing Tesla to offer more for trades to get more new units out the door they will continue low-balling trade values just to take advantage of those dumb enough to accept 50% of what their car books for.
Until they get someone high up that has their finger on the pulse of the used car market and how to make it profitable on a large scale I feel like this is their "solution" and we may never see a massive used inventory like we once did. All these people waiting for "end of quarter for the numbers to spike again" have been wrong four times in a row now. I guess the "end of year spike" is just around the corner and the new thing to wait for and be wrong about. ROFL
One way or the other, the lease return cars will reach the market. It doesn’t have to be through Tesla’s website if Tesla just auctions them to dealers, but they will get out. What else will Tesla do with this huge amount or cars they get from leases? Park them somewhere and let them sit?
DanCar
Active Member
I think Ostrichsak is pretty accurate, except for the "sellers market," as in my opinion it is always a buyer's market with Tesla. I'd like one, but I'm not willing to overpay to get it. I know that every day the older models are dropping in value, it is just a waiting game.
One thing that I think Ostrichsak touched on that could be further commented on is Tesla's solution is to get out of the used car business.
To me, they aren't in the "used car business," they're in the "Tesla (but used) experience," with the warranty offered on all the cars they were selling. And, in a sense, to me they're having to do that because these used cars really aren't reliable at the level they either should be or at least are expected to be. For example, I just came across this:
So every used car Tesla is selling is a potential anchor for their future profits.
Then there's the losses from poor practices:
So, I'll say that I am new and haven't lived with a Tesla that's been incredibly dependable, and I'm noticing what may be atypical examples of problems, but I'm having to budget an amount toward repair or purchase the Xcelerate coverage, something I wouldn't consider on a Toyota.
And yes, I realize driving a Tesla is not the same as driving a Toyota. But if the Toyota goes and the Tesla is sitting needing $4K or $5K in repairs every six months or so, that soon takes the thrill of driving a Tesla away. There are also many other EV selections now for people to choose from, I just talked to a guy who bought a Fisker Karma, and another guy driving a Cadillac ELR (no longer in production though) who loves it.
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
A quick point of clarification; when I said "seller's market" I meant for Tesla specifically. Whenever their inventory #'s go down their prices go up. Or I should say they don't have to go down as much to actually sell as they do when they have a glut of inventory cars. In that instance, they are making more profit per unit which means more overall profit since less effort is put into more money. That's why I meant by "seller's market" as I was referring to Tesla specifically in that analogy and not used car dealers or private party sales.
Agree with this... If Tesla knows they are selling 'X' amount of used cars a month and they limit selection and raise prices and are still selling said amount, then it is a good business move for them..... But bad for me, I want cheaper P90/100DLs
Ostrichsak
Well-Known Member
Indeed. A buddy and I bought P85D & P90DL within the last month or so and the selection has all but dried up. I'd been searching for my perfect P85D since last year and at one point right at the end there were three that all matched nearly identical specs. I kept watching all three waiting to snag one for the best price possible thinking that I had a couple of back-ups if the one I wanted sold. One of the other two sold and I pulled the trigger but not before it dropped another couple of grand. Free money. I was sure glad I pulled the trigger when I did because right after I did my 2nd backup was no longer available and shortly thereafter the downward trend of available Model S continued and even ramped up. It's crazy how few are available now and they're holding their prices much better as a result since if you want a used Model S through Tesla you're stuck with their inventory.Agree with this... If Tesla knows they are selling 'X' amount of used cars a month and they limit selection and raise prices and are still selling said amount, then it is a good business move for them..... But bad for me, I want cheaper P90/100DLs
Well, that would be pretty straightforward to answer:
IGdawgI said: ↑
Several sitting for quite some time when I was looking. I ended up with tesla used direct on a 85d. Glad I got the warranty. It's been in 3 tines already and it's only been a month. Ap1 hardware replaced, right front doornhandle replaced, rear back door seal replaced. Lol. Only 30k miles on the clock
Maybe MarkLy would have been smart enough to just pay for all those repairs? Three times in one month, a 30K mile Tesla, needing the Ap1 hardware replaced, an extremely expensive door handle, and a rear back door seal.
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As a perspective Model S buyer a big turn off for me is seeing the number of maintenance issues that these cars have. A good example of this is the MCU failing. Reading the forums, this is not a one off occurrence but a frequently occurring issue that Tesla routinely charges $3000-5000 to fix. And that big ticket item is happening on cars only 4-5 years old, i'm concerned about other unknown maintenance issues that will come up in 8-10 years down the road.
Well you guys who don't own a Tesla need to do a bit more research. A complete replacement MCU is not $5K or $3K it's $2300 and is a rare occurrence, annual maintenance costs of $16K -$20K is utter nonsense. Please don't fill these threads with crap as a genuine buyer might be tempted to believe you.
According to IGdawgI he/she does own a Tesla, a 30K mile one that's been in the shop three separate times within a month after purchasing it.
So you see, MarkLy is right, no need to worry, only $2300. I haven't seen the quote of replacing the Ap1 hardware, but I'm sure that's not very expensive either. And replacing those door handles is not too bad either.
I'm sure MarkLy owns an out of warranty Tesla without any worries at all.
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I had the radar bracket replaced together with the radiator (battery cooling) because of damage recently. Cost? $1154. I don't even want to know what it would have cost if all/most of autopilot hardware had to be replaced.
As I've found Ostrichsak's posts insightful and informative, even just being here a short time he's one who I noticed, so I'll have to clarify that I only focused on the time factor of selling a used car, and I have seen now with low numbers that prices aren't falling much, if any.
However, even with a good number to choose from, it seems that the price of a specific Tesla could jump by two thousand in a day, then fall back down over a week at a "discount" of about $300/day. I've really found the ev-cpo.com price history function extremely informative. I've seen one where Tesla advertised it at $151,550 on 4/2017, then for whatever reason took it off the market, only to reappear two years later and I guess ultimately sell for around $88,000. I don't know if it sat around gathering dust, or if Tesla used it, but that is a lot less than the $151,550 in that time.
I was trying to point out also the reason that Tesla might be getting out of the used car business is the fact that Tesla offers the warranty on their cars, but it appears to an outsider, who hasn't owned a flawless Tesla, that you can't buy one or own one without having a warranty, the risk is too great. And it could be that Tesla is seeing that too. I just read about a person who said their door handle was replaced 10 times on their 2013 Tesla. Ten times is a lot. I've seen where control arms needed to be replaced, after working on 50-year-old cars with fine control arms that causes concern.
I'll also say that I understand that negative experiences are greatly exaggerated when reading, as the other people who are perfectly happy haven't written in to say that. I'm still willing to risk on a Tesla, I just consider it more of a gamble than it really should be for such a company producing cutting edge vehicles.
The following was posted yesterday (6/6), not disputed from any of the other replies, so it looks like MarkLy will also have to tell Galve2000, who obviously does own a Tesla, "Where do you come up with this nonsense?"
Can you post the VIN? There have been a few rare circumstances where a new inventory car was listed and sold.. and then later traded-in and re-listed as a 'used' car at a much lower price. In that case, the pricing history for both sales are displayed as a single graph.
5YJSA1E49GF177598
It actually fluctuated between $151,550 and $136,550 three times on the same day (4/20/17), then was gone for just short of two years, relisted on 4/12/19 at $100,200, only to drop over the next month and a half to $88,700. I don't know if it continued after that or was sold, as I didn't check.
And, as long as EV-CPO is reading this, a HUGE thank you for your efforts and website. It is what I'm relying on in my search!
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