Tesla Used Inventory Down 30%?

[EV-CPO]

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It actually fluctuated between $151,550 and $136,550 three times on the same day (4/20/17), then was gone for just short of two years, relisted on 4/12/19 at $100,200, only to drop over the next month and a half to $88,700. I don't know if it continued after that or was sold, as I didn't check.

Ok, that car was definitely originally listed as a new car and sold for $136k in 2017. Those first price fluctuations were on the same day because back then EV-CPO only recorded the price changes and not the dates. Then it re-entered the Tesla system as a used car in April 2019. It was not a new car that just 'sat around' for two years and price lowered until it sold. Tesla actually sold this car twice.

And, as long as EV-CPO is reading this, a HUGE thank you for your efforts and website. It is what I'm relying on in my search!

You're welcome, and thanks for your feedback and support!

 

[IGdawgI]

According to IGdawgI he/she does own a Tesla, a 30K mile one that's been in the shop three separate times within a month after purchasing it.



So you see, MarkLy is right, no need to worry, only $2300. I haven't seen the quote of replacing the Ap1 hardware, but I'm sure that's not very expensive either. And replacing those door handles is not too bad either.

I'm sure MarkLy owns an out of warranty Tesla without any worries at all.

Lol. Gdawg quotes..
Now,
4th time in service. 33kmiles. Shy of 3 months of ownership.

Driving down to San Diego memorial week and hit some debris exiting the freeway. Right front suspension snapped after hitting debris around 40mph. Wheel didn't bend, golf size bubble on tire, suspension parts cracked... $3400 invoice. Requested a manager to review. Asked how my suspension broke when my wheel didn't bend or my tire popped. "You mentioned I must've hit something really hard right?" "So you're telling me the tires can hold up better than your suspension?" About an hour later, got an invoice to replace tire and rim (not knowing if it was bent or not). All said and done at the end, replaced tire $253.xx.

This also caused my fender to shift. So 5th trip to service center will be on 6/20 here in Fremont to fix that.

I'm also have sporadic issues with the windows. Sometimes rolls up on auto, sometimes stops when I roll another window up, auto doesn't work and need to be pressed several times. But they can't replicate the problem so it's just documented until it can be replicated.

My mcu is buggy, very slow in loading. Lte 1-3 bars. Mostly 1 bar. But SC says nothing is wrong. But loaner car had 3+ lte bars. "Shake head".

So, as long as I get a loaner car while it's being repaired, I'm "ok" with this BS I'm dealing with. Not even 3 months of ownership yet. I do love the way it drives and the instant power on demand. Am also very fortunate to have the Service center 9 miles away and a Supercharger 4miles away. If the SC was further, I'd probably would not get one. Just too much hassle. Glad I didn't pay $120k for this car. Because at that price with the amount of issues at 30k miles... I'd be pissed!!!

I think I've been into service more times for warranty issues on this Tesla so far than combining all the vehicle I've owned with warranty issues.

 

[Zorg]

Wondering if Tesla is getting out of the used car business

 

[IGdawgI]

Wondering if Tesla is getting out of the used car business

Sales tactic to cause a supply shortage. Making buyers spend to get 1. They can afford to let it sit at the Manheim auction lots while they create this"limited supply". Plus, Tesla probably realized there used could be eating into the model 3 sales. Which numbers do you want to report? New sales or used?? We'll see when q2 closes and which direction they will go. But if someone is close to Manheim lots, please take a picture of the lot and post it up.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Sales tactic to cause a supply shortage. Making buyers spend to get 1.

There's no possible way Tesla is intentionally sitting on inventory to inflate values artificially. If you had any idea what those #'s looked like you wouldn't even suggest this is possible. At no point does sitting on millions of dollars worth of depreciating assets net a positive & that's why car dealers #1 objective is to move units. Letting them sit intentionally would be the dumbest thing Tesla has ever done. I refuse to believe anyone who knows anything about finance & used cars would suggest this was a good strategy. I keep reading people on this forum suggesting this & there's no way this is what's happening. Most also follow this up by saying something about quarterly numbers but even if that were the case we've seen rapidly falling #'s of used cars available for several quarters now. I wish people would stop parroting this because it's not accurate.

 

[IGdawgI]

There's no possible way Tesla is intentionally sitting on inventory to inflate values artificially. If you had any idea what those #'s looked like you wouldn't even suggest this is possible. At no point does sitting on millions of dollars worth of depreciating assets net a positive & that's why car dealers #1 objective is to move units. Letting them sit intentionally would be the dumbest thing Tesla has ever done. I refuse to believe anyone who knows anything about finance & used cars would suggest this was a good strategy. I keep reading people on this forum suggesting this & there's no way this is what's happening. Most also follow this up by saying something about quarterly numbers but even if that were the case we've seen rapidly falling #'s of used cars available for several quarters now. I wish people would stop parroting this because it's not accurate.

Do the math. If I can get 5k more per vehicle by holding inventory each time.. Then that's a lot of money you just made by holding it 6 months. And say you don't get 5k more but got what you would've gotten 6 months earlier. Somewhere in that number I still gained by selling some higher.

Tesla’s 2016 Deliveries = 76,230

If you got free money sitting, it's called investing.

Plus all eyes are on Tesla for model 3 deliveries. Q1 was a bust.. they are running out of cash. If their used cars are competing with the model 3, Q2 can be horrible if the model 3 deliveries can't happen. Sell more used cars and make some money Or lose millions in market value? You do the math there.

Tesla isn't a basic car dealer. Move used inventory. They are a newish company that all eyes are on new inventory. They don't go flaunting we sold x number of used vehicles. They need to show they can deliver x number of new vehicles.

My guess is they put all man power to focus on hitting the q2 number.

My initial thought was more inventory would pop up to hit q2 $$ numbers. But a I think the focus are deliveries. They probably know the gross dollar has been achieved for q2. So why fire sale if you don't need to?

Anyways,. You can easily drop by the Manheim auction lots to test my theory. If you see tons sitting on the lot and not listed, Id say my theory may be pretty accurate.

 

[neroden]

Sooo, if Tesla doesn’t want to earn money on pre-owned cars, who will?

cars.com, Carvana, etc. etc.

Tesla is documented, from its financial statements, to be losing money consistently on the used car business; they just haven't figured it out. And it's labor-intensive. There are plenty of used car dealers happy to handle the business instead.

I have heard several claims that they're converting old Model S's for Mobile Service, with apparent evidence. So the expansion of service may be absorbing the lowest-value cars. There seems to be a lot of evidence that they're encouraging people to NOT trade in their Teslas, but to sell them to third parties, by making lowball offers, so that should reduce the number coming in. The lease returns should be coming back in large numbers now, but Tesla has been making some "special offers" to get people to renew or buy out their 2015-2016 leases.

I think they don't really want to be in the used car business and they will get out entirely.

EV-CPO now lists 176 Used Model S in the world, 81 of which are in Hong Kong. 89 Model X in the world. Zero model 3. This says "We want out of the used car business" to me.

 

[bigbear]

They are out, lowest S on there now is 40k where as a couple months ago there were quite a few under 30k.

 

[Bruin21]

I don't think they are leaving the used car business. Instead, I think there are two things going on:

1. They are using a lot of those cars for mobile service
2. They figured out how to actually INCREASE the price of used cars by offering a limited supply. They'll likely keep adding them slowly and prices on their site should hold up.

 

[Ostrichsak]

Do the math. If I can get 5k more per vehicle by holding inventory each time.. Then that's a lot of money you just made by holding it 6 months. And say you don't get 5k more but got what you would've gotten 6 months earlier. Somewhere in that number I still gained by selling some higher.

Tesla’s 2016 Deliveries = 76,230

If you got free money sitting, it's called investing.

Plus all eyes are on Tesla for model 3 deliveries. Q1 was a bust.. they are running out of cash. If their used cars are competing with the model 3, Q2 can be horrible if the model 3 deliveries can't happen. Sell more used cars and make some money Or lose millions in market value? You do the math there.

Tesla isn't a basic car dealer. Move used inventory. They are a newish company that all eyes are on new inventory. They don't go flaunting we sold x number of used vehicles. They need to show they can deliver x number of new vehicles.

My guess is they put all man power to focus on hitting the q2 number.

My initial thought was more inventory would pop up to hit q2 $$ numbers. But a I think the focus are deliveries. They probably know the gross dollar has been achieved for q2. So why fire sale if you don't need to?

Anyways,. You can easily drop by the Manheim auction lots to test my theory. If you see tons sitting on the lot and not listed, Id say my theory may be pretty accurate.

The Model S has been depreciating about $2k per month roughly. In your scenario where they sit on a car for six months they actually lose about $12k in depreciation. You also aren't factoring in the cost of money in terms of interest or whatever the cost of floating that much cash does which is a substantial. That last one puts LOTS of used car lots out of business and that's even if they have them on their lot available for sale. Keeping cars from even being listed to somehow try to gain more profit is a sure fire way to lose a ton of money.

 

[byeLT4]

All I know is you used to be able to find facelifted cars well into the 40s when there was plenty of inventory, now when one pops up in the low 50s, it is gone before I can even look at it.

 

[IGdawgI]

The Model S has been depreciating about $2k per month roughly. In your scenario where they sit on a car for six months they actually lose about $12k in depreciation. You also aren't factoring in the cost of money in terms of interest or whatever the cost of floating that much cash does which is a substantial. That last one puts LOTS of used car lots out of business and that's even if they have them on their lot available for sale. Keeping cars from even being listed to somehow try to gain more profit is a sure fire way to lose a ton of money.

Everytime someone searches a used Tesla, they have that data to control the inventory. The business has all of the resources to know how to manage the inventory. You are just viewing this as a consumer. All the "losses" are factored into the price. They can take a $5k loss when they sold 2 at $5k+ each. Still net $5k more on a 3 count ratio.

If the above doesn't make any sense, then please explain where all the 2016 leases are? Carvana, vroom, cars.com.. there arent much inventory. Any dealers able to comment on the Tesla availability at the auctions?

Only way to prove whose correct is to check out a Mannheim lot. Who Is nearby one and can snap a picture of the Tesla lot section? If it's empty then who has them? Did current owners extend their leases??

Tesla is turning to partners to help with a growing used-car business


My money is they are taking all logistics and moving to New deliveries to close out Q2. Then look at the revenue when the results are available. If they met or exceeded, my theory above is proven. They held off and off goes Q3 rush.

 

[Zishan]

please explain where all the 2016 leases are? Carvana, vroom, cars.com.. there arent much inventory. Any dealers able to comment on the Tesla availability at the auctions?

I was wondering the exact same thing.....where the heck are all those lease returns?? Checking out Manheim is one way. I was wondering if someone who has turned in their lease would share the VIN and we can see if it gets listed for sale on Tesla.com or another dealer. If it doesn't then it's safe to assume Tesla is using it as loaner, or holding onto it. Carfax report would tell you if it's been sold/registered elsewhere.

I was looking at a Tesla Model S, and looked it up on Tesla-Info.com, which gives historical data. I'm sure EV-Cpo.com does as well, but I don't know how to use it or I don't have the subscription to it (yet). Anyways, I noticed the car was for sale a few months back....and then the price dropped to zero. Then the price jumped to the current sales price. Makes me think they held it or used it as a loaner.

Disclaimer, I have no clue what's going on, I'm just continuing to theorize.

 

[neroden]

There is no evidence of any significant number of usedTeslas going to auction. There is no evidence of Tesla "hanging onto" any significant number as "secret inventory" (they don't have the parking lots for it).

There IS evidence of conversion of a large number to internal fleet use. And there's evidence that they don't want to get Teslas (or anything else) as trade-ins (lowball offers, encouraging new car buyers to sell to third parties, etc.) And there's evidence that they offered deals to get people to extend or buy out their leases (minimizing lease returns). And there's evidence that they're trying to sell as many used cars as possible ASAP. And there's financial evidence that the used car business was losing money for Tesla.

There are actually quite a lot of used Teslas on the various third party car sales sites. 1450 on cars.com -- far, *far* more than listed on Tesla's site. (BTW, you can get an S60 for $26K.)

You can add this evidence up to whatever you think it amounts to. I think I know what it means.

 

[IGdawgI]

There is no evidence of any significant number of usedTeslas going to auction. There is no evidence of Tesla "hanging onto" any significant number as "secret inventory" (they don't have the parking lots for it).

There IS evidence of conversion of a large number to internal fleet use. And there's evidence that they don't want to get Teslas (or anything else) as trade-ins (lowball offers, encouraging new car buyers to sell to third parties, etc.) And there's evidence that they offered deals to get people to extend or buy out their leases (minimizing lease returns). And there's evidence that they're trying to sell as many used cars as possible ASAP. And there's financial evidence that the used car business was losing money for Tesla.

There are actually quite a lot of used Teslas on the various third party car sales sites. 1450 on cars.com -- far, *far* more than listed on Tesla's site. (BTW, you can get an S60 for $26K.)

You can add this evidence up to whatever you think it amounts to. I think I know what it means.

Ears wide open. Any creditable links/articles supporting your evidence? I've heard low ball trade one (but they will match other offers as it just goes to the auction). I've heard conversion to fleet vehicles, but found no reference to this; though Enterprise is hired to manage the loaner cars.

I think I may have misunderstood the inventory Down thread. I took it as current (2016 as we speak) lease returns. I'm referencing to where the lease returns are; not overall total inventory.

 

[Target]

I got a trade in offer from Tesla on my 14 Model S, but it was 7k lower than a local dealer offered. They would only match CarMax and that wasn't worth my time to chase down. I traded in my wife's Outlander to Tesla and got her a Bolt from the dealer that took my 14 Tesla. Since the Outlander was an 18 with less than 12k miles it values nicely at auction so I did OK on the deal, I just had to be creative.

When I look at older (2012 to 2014) used Tesla's, I just consider how long has it been out of warranty. The longer it has been out of warranty, the more stuff that will need repaired. You might get lucky and get one that has been completely kept up, even out of warranty, but many people just won't bother, and when the list of broken stuff is long enough, it gets traded in.

On the 13 I just took delivery of they hadn't even dealt with the three recalls it had open for it. It still had the steering bolt recall open!

When buying used, condition matters, this is true of these cars just like any other high end car. Over time they are getting better and I hope the next one I buy won't immediately need 2+ service visits to fix all the stuff I find. Tesla could save themselves some money by spending some time fixing the big and obvious issues and recalls before they try to market their cars, but that is not the path they are on presently.

If Tesla stopped offering the comprehensive warranty on their used cars, I wouldn't buy from them without being able to do a thorough review of the car first. It is just way to risky on the older (cheap) cars.

 

[mjmiron]

I got a trade in offer from Tesla on my 14 Model S, but it was 7k lower than a local dealer offered. They would only match CarMax and that wasn't worth my time to chase down. I traded in my wife's Outlander to Tesla and got her a Bolt from the dealer that took my 14 Tesla. Since the Outlander was an 18 with less than 12k miles it values nicely at auction so I did OK on the deal, I just had to be creative.

When I look at older (2012 to 2014) used Tesla's, I just consider how long has it been out of warranty. The longer it has been out of warranty, the more stuff that will need repaired. You might get lucky and get one that has been completely kept up, even out of warranty, but many people just won't bother, and when the list of broken stuff is long enough, it gets traded in.

On the 13 I just took delivery of they hadn't even dealt with the three recalls it had open for it. It still had the steering bolt recall open!

When buying used, condition matters, this is true of these cars just like any other high end car. Over time they are getting better and I hope the next one I buy won't immediately need 2+ service visits to fix all the stuff I find. Tesla could save themselves some money by spending some time fixing the big and obvious issues and recalls before they try to market their cars, but that is not the path they are on presently.

If Tesla stopped offering the comprehensive warranty on their used cars, I wouldn't buy from them without being able to do a thorough review of the car first. It is just way to risky on the older (cheap) cars.

I don’t disagree with you on this I too had a 2013 I bought used in 2017 from Tesla and it had a lot of minor stuff but I kept it up. The used car warranty is a really good reason to buy from Tesla.

And to comment on some of the other posts I don’t believe Tesla is holding inventory I think they are disorganized and need to rework their used car process and are just low on inventory right now.

It will be interesting to see what happens once Y comes out.

 

[cucubits]

Well, I've been monitoring too their used S inventory for some time now and whether there's a conspiracy going on or not, as much as I'd like an S, I'm starting to get used to the idea of just getting a new Model 3. I don't care about other dealers or private parties. With the sheer number of things that go wrong on these cars, getting a used S straight from Tesla for the 4 year warranty, would have been an absolute must.

I have to say I really can't believe their actual used S inventory is that low. Also, they have been selling pre-owned for a while now so incompetency and disorganization surely can't be the reason.

Fun fact, I drive by the Dallas-Fort Worth Manheim lot every day but I'm pretty sure they won't just let me stroll around and search for the Tesla section.

 

[Iceh8r]

I’m slowly looking for a second used s and can’t find any cheap cpos like before.
Drove with wife to look at a new model 3 and it just felt smaller and crappier then the model s. We didn’t even take a test drive, and they don’t even have the $39k model to drive.
I think when dealing with people/business it’s always safe to bet on incompetence over conspiracy, hence I hope once this delivery push for model 3 is over they will start dumping their older inventory of model s cars in July and I can bag another model s with ap1 for around 30k
Can anyone comment how fast they saw cpos replenished after the new quarter started? Any guesses? I’m hoping by July 15 we will have some tasty options.

 

[B00A]

I’m slowly looking for a second used s and can’t find any cheap cpos like before.
Drove with wife to look at a new model 3 and it just felt smaller and crappier then the model s. We didn’t even take a test drive, and they don’t even have the $39k model to drive.
I think when dealing with people/business it’s always safe to bet on incompetence over conspiracy, hence I hope once this delivery push for model 3 is over they will start dumping their older inventory of model s cars in July and I can bag another model s with ap1 for around 30k
Can anyone comment how fast they saw cpos replenished after the new quarter started? Any guesses? I’m hoping by July 15 we will have some tasty options.

I can't comment to the replenishment of CPOs other than the fact that they were replenished in late March after I was looking for a couple of months. But how's this for conspiracy - when searching for a used S, I would normally search on my personal cell phone and request photos from that phone if I saw one that fit the bill. Inventory continued to go down gradually and then the one I had my eyes on disappeared. Figured I lost the opportunity but it showed back up a couple weeks later or so. Then, the inventory drastically depleated one day with the only S remaining in my price range being the one I had emailed about. I searched on my business phone to see if there was some error and found a large amount of "new" used inventory that I couldn't view on my personal cell. It felt like they were baiting me to purchase that one car before it too was sold. I started emailing for photos of cars I had no interest in but had similar attributes to see if by chance it would affect the declining price of the one I was actually watching. I don't recall that it did but prices definitely were linked to the number of cars they had available with similar attributes at any one time. I can't help but think they have algorithms at their disposal based off of search and/or interaction history. I started using evcpo more after the personal phone thing.