Here's my prediction on what will happen:
(Let's assume for a moment that the new corporate HQ is going to be Austin.)
- HQ will move to a temporary office space in Austin, and build a new HQ campus in a nearby suburb. (Maybe this is already in the planning stages).
This means Finance & Accounting, Legal, HR, CEO's office, Product Management, Investor Relations, Sales and Marketing, Retail / Service, and all other corporate functions move there.
- Palo Alto will remain as a major engineering center, now with less crowding due to a lot of additional space freed up
Engineers will be offered a standard relocation package to Austin, and based on their group, will be allowed to stay in Palo Alto or accept the generous package to move.
- A new engineering center will be established in Austin at the new HQ. Recruiting will begin for this, and new programs will be primarily staffed here. Existing teams may move in bulk if the manager and team members all agree. An example of this is hardware design. Austin is a mecca for hardware design engineers, and the HW 3.0 is being fabbed in Austin already.
- Giga/Tera Texas will simultaneously being construction somewhere between Austin and San Antonio, in a more rural area with large open land and industrial type zoning, maybe 20-30 miles from new HQ (like Palo Alto / Fremont setup).
We can assume that this is already well underway, and a site is most likely under contract, given Elon's threat/promise tweets.
- Key production employees will be given generous relocation packages to Texas. Given their blue collar manufacturing jobs and salary levels, many will take it. The quality of life improvement for them will be dramatic. Those who were renting 2BR/2BA homes in the east bay (or all the way out towards Tracy) and having long commutes, will now be able to live close to work and purchase brand new 4BR/3BA tract homes in new developments. Their kids' school districts will be dramatically better and their purchasing power will be considerably better in the greater Austin area.
- Fremont will continue production at least for the next year, and then new programs such as CT will start in Texas. Mainstream scaleout production for e.g. Model 3, Y will move to Texas, which frees up space for more specialty programs like Roadster 2.0, and Model S/X which have lower production numbers, will remain in Fremont.
- Once Texas is scaled up and operating at larger production volumes, it gives more operational freedom to shift programs, and Maybe Tera Texas 2, or another location, could be set up, allowing Tesla to mothball and sell Fremont. I see that happening in 2-3 years, if it happens.
I moved from the Bay Area, where I lived for over 20 years and worked as a computer engineer and software / hardware designer, to Austin, a year and a half ago. There's a large talent pool in Austin, and Facebook, Google, Apple, Oracle, Samsung, Intel, AMD, and many, many other tech companies are here and investing billions of dollars in expansion. It's just weird enough to be fun for progressives, but not sanctimonious and PC-police/SJW to be offputting to middle of the road engineers who aren't interested in politics. Also very easy to do remote work between Austin/Bay Area, with a 2 hour time difference and multiple direct flights per day.
By the way, these are all my own guesses based on what I've observed publicly. I don't have any inside knowledge or friends who work at Tesla.
