Wiki Teslike Model Y Survey & Order Tracker Spreadsheet

[Jamezam]

I was just thinking, all of us have been focused on VIN numbers. I wonder if maybe it would be better if we all focused on manufacture date, then the VIN won't matter!

 

[CleverUsername]

I was just thinking, all of us have been focused on VIN numbers. I wonder if maybe it would be better if we all focused on manufacture date, then the VIN won't matter!

This is a fair point, because on the Google sheet I see that at least a couple people received 84XXX VINs on 11/30, but according to my SA, the build date for my 82XXX was 12/3.

 

[seangoggin]

The low number of VINs this week is odd. I think it is too early to start to slow down for the next quarter.

I can only hope they have some model changes like a 7 seater or RWD model and do not want to release the VINs yet and are batching them up. Maybe they are doing extra checking on the new models.

 

[marines310]

The low number of VINs this week is odd. I think it is too early to start to slow down for the next quarter.

I can only hope they have some model changes like a 7 seater or RWD model and do not want to release the VINs yet and are batching them up. Maybe they are doing extra checking on the new models.

I stopped relying exclusively on the MY VIN number data a couple weeks ago after sort of concluding that the VIN data here is not comprehensive of the entire order pool, updates can be slow and variables in the shipping and logistics of the vehicles.

I recall in early November, VINs and new orders were really slow on this data sheet but this was quickly changed where newcomers to the TMC community quickly added their orders and VIN numbers in later which showed a more balanced and reasonable order curve.

Also, despite the different vehicles probably being separate production lines and perhaps certain issues could affect the model Y exclusively, other models are continuing to churn out which is good news for us waiting in Q4 '20

The conclusion is, I think we can hope/expect that behind the scenes, VIN matches are continuing to maintain or grow since Tesla has every reason to deliver as many vehicles as they can!

 

[Trej3387]

Nerding out with the data some more, I also did a regression of days to delivery on car and order characteristics. I used only orders from May 1, 2020 (after delivery times level out) to September 30, 2020 (not so recent that many are still not delivered). Here are the results:

      Source |       SS           df       MS      Number of obs   =       932
-------------+----------------------------------   F(61, 870)      =      3.17
       Model |   58323.113        61  956.116607   Prob > F        =    0.0000
    Residual |  262611.604       870  301.852418   R-squared       =    0.1817
-------------+----------------------------------   Adj R-squared   =    0.1244
       Total |  320934.717       931  344.720426   Root MSE        =    17.374

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            delivery_days |      Coef.   Std. Err.      t    P>|t|     [95% Conf. Interval]
--------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
              performance |   12.74784   4.490055     2.84   0.005     3.935233    21.56044
                      fsd |  -2.531619   1.338799    -1.89   0.059    -5.159273    .0960352
                white_int |   1.428309   1.322099     1.08   0.280    -1.166568    4.023185
                tow_hitch |   4.300699   1.345878     3.20   0.001     1.659151    6.942247
                          |
                    color |
      Deep Blue Metallic  |   4.375689   1.631864     2.68   0.007      1.17284    7.578539
Midnight Silver Metallic  |   1.496763   1.549327     0.97   0.334    -1.544092    4.537618
          Red Multi-Coat  |   1.732264   2.321584     0.75   0.456    -2.824295    6.288824
             Solid Black  |   1.083944   2.183176     0.50   0.620    -3.200963    5.368851
                          |
               days_to_q2 |   .4548672   .0786639     5.78   0.000      .300474    .6092604
               days_to_q3 |   .0485498    .022743     2.13   0.033     .0039123    .0931874
                          |
                   wheels |
                 20 inch  |  -1.119032   1.291963    -0.87   0.387    -3.654761    1.416696
                 21 inch  |  -16.30479   4.842879    -3.37   0.001    -25.80989   -6.799703
                          |
                    state | [omitted for brevity, see attachment if interested]
                          |
                    _cons |   32.19171   17.53327     1.84   0.067    -2.220739    66.60417
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So for the baseline LR Model Y in white with 19 inch wheels and black interior, you’ll expect to wait about 32 days (the “_cons” line). If you upgrade to performance, expect 12 more days (the “performance” line). Tow hitch adds about 4.3 days. FSD reduces time to delivery by about 2.5 days (maybe there is some small priority given?).

I added controls for days until end of Q2 (longer delays then) and days until end of Q3. In both cases, it seems there is an end of quarter delivery push. Ordering earlier in the quarter is correlated with longer waits, but moreso in Q2 than Q3. (No data used from Q1 or Q4).

Using this to predict days until delivery for orders in the sample and after (the red dots), you can see that there is still a lot of unexplained variation. On the other hand, I think it validates many of our “feelings” about things that affect wait time.
View attachment 614494

kinda confused on how to guesstimate this. Could you help?

ordered 11/6. MY LR IN MSM, no tow hitch, no fsd, california, 19” wheels, black int

 

[Modulus1]

kinda confused on how to guesstimate this. Could you help?

ordered 11/6. MY LR IN MSM, no tow hitch, no fsd, california, 19” wheels, black int

Baseline +32.19171
MSM +1.496763
55 days before end of Q3 +55*0.0485498
CA -2.087246
Total 34.271466

So, December 10. Hope you get a call soon!

There are more sophisticated models, but this one is simple so that you just have to add up the relevant coefficients to get a prediction. But even with this simple model, a 95% confidence interval for the prediction is more involved to calculate. Mine is about +/- 10 days, but it varies based on where you live and when/what you ordered.

 

[Trej3387]

Baseline +32.19171
MSM +1.496763
55 days before end of Q3 +55*0.0485498
CA -2.087246
Total 34.271466

So, December 10. Hope you get a call soon!

There are more sophisticated models, but this one is simple so that you just have to add up the relevant coefficients to get a prediction. But even with this simple model, a 95% confidence interval for the prediction is more involved to calculate. Mine is about +/- 10 days, but it varies based on where you live and when/what you ordered.

thank you. And my estimated date is 12/11-12/31. Hopefully I see a vin soon

 

[2101Guy]

Update: received text to schedule delivery. Earliest date is dec 8. Selected that one.

vin received tonight 794xx

With my delivery scheduled for tomorrow, Stopped by the SC today. (Im fortunate enough to live less than 10 miles away) to see if the Y had arrived. It had arrived but not yet prepped. Gave it a quick 5 min once over. Metal scroll wheels, laminated glass, USB in glovebox. All of the body panels lined up like you'd expect an ICE vehicle to. Frunk lid was straight and true and aligned perfectly. Ditto for the rear hatch. All 4 doors also were straight, no gaps, no issues. Headliner was free of dirt. White interior looked spotless and REALLY white. Rear bumper color (white) appeared to match as close as I could expect it to but this was indoor lighting. Car had not been washed/cleaned/prepped yet. But overall, the build quality looked suprisingly good.

 

[DoctorBenjamin]

With my delivery scheduled for tomorrow, Stopped by the SC today. (Im fortunate enough to live less than 10 miles away) to see if the Y had arrived. It had arrived but not yet prepped. Gave it a quick 5 min once over. Metal scroll wheels, laminated glass, USB in glovebox. All of the body panels lined up like you'd expect an ICE vehicle to. Frunk lid was straight and true and aligned perfectly. Ditto for the rear hatch. All 4 doors also were straight, no gaps, no issues. Headliner was free of dirt. White interior looked spotless and REALLY white. Rear bumper color (white) appeared to match as close as I could expect it to but this was indoor lighting. Car had not been washed/cleaned/prepped yet. But overall, the build quality looked suprisingly good.

Does anyone know if we can request for the car to not be fully prepped? What I mean by that is that I heard the cars come shipped with plastic protective liners on the hood etc. I'm wondering if they can leave that on there. My reason is that I have to drive my car from the delivery center to a friends house and then from one state to another. Hence I want to try to avoid rock chips etc till I get it to the detailer in the diff state for the clear bra and tint etc. I figured the plastic liner would help protect it.

 

[2101Guy]

Does anyone know if we can request for the car to not be fully prepped? What I mean by that is that I heard the cars come shipped with plastic protective liners on the hood etc. I'm wondering if they can leave that on there. My reason is that I have to drive my car from the delivery center to a friends house and then from one state to another. Hence I want to try to avoid rock chips etc till I get it to the detailer in the diff state for the clear bra and tint etc. I figured the plastic liner would help protect it.

hi. Not sure, but best to check with your sales advisor and ask. An alternative thats popular in the car enthusiast arena is this:

Road Trip Tape – Protect Your Vehicle From Road Debris


But painters tape (if you dont mind the car looking a little...odd while traveling) is also a popular solution

tape front car travel - Google Search

 

[Deep Purple]

Ordered 12/6 - VIN 12/7. Crazy fast.

 

[amscro]

Are people finding that the estimated delivery ranges on the website are accurate? Sorry if I missed this on a previous post.

 

[DoctorBenjamin]

Ordered 12/6 - VIN 12/7. Crazy fast.

Wait what? I ordered my Model Y 2 weeks ago. Said I was paying cash for it and finished all the steps in my account. But then I decided to finance it and so that took a week to get done with all the paperwork, proof of income etc. But it's been done for a few days and I was told that I never lost my place in the queue. So how the heck did you get a vin in a day when I ordered at the end of Nov?

 

[DoctorBenjamin]

hi. Not sure, but best to check with your sales advisor and ask. An alternative thats popular in the car enthusiast arena is this:

Road Trip Tape – Protect Your Vehicle From Road Debris


But painters tape (if you dont mind the car looking a little...odd while traveling) is also a popular solution

tape front car travel - Google Search

Thank you so much. Painters Tape was what I was going to use. I don't mind it looking odd when driving from CA to AZ lol. Though let me look at the road trip tape if it's the same cost. Thank you once again.

 

[Kezz]

Wait what? I ordered my Model Y 2 weeks ago. Said I was paying cash for it and finished all the steps in my account. But then I decided to finance it and so that took a week to get done with all the paperwork, proof of income etc. But it's been done for a few days and I was told that I never lost my place in the queue. So how the heck did you get a vin in a day when I ordered at the end of Nov?

You probably have different configurations. Also F anyone complaining about a month wait lol.

 

[DoctorBenjamin]

You probably have different configurations. Also F anyone complaining about a month wait lol.

I'm not complaining about a month long wait. My issue is that I placed the order because delivery was promised between 2-4 weeks. I need the car before the end of the year for tax purposes. As much as I love Tesla's and have dreamed about owning one for the longest time etc, the tax benefit for my particular situation this year was crucial and that is what helped me justify spending this kind of money on the car. Hence getting it before the end of the year is of paramount importance. That is why I was asking. In addition to which I was just surprised that I had placed my order a few weeks ago and there was someone who placed theirs 2 days ago and already have their VIN's lol. So it was just a comparison of when I placed mine compared to them. Not in the least bit complaining but just wanted to make sure something didn't mess up on my end.

And about the configs, mine is literally the base line model in every sense of the word. White, black seats, 19". So nothing extra which might take longer.

 

[kadify]

I have to think some people may be getting vins so fast due to cars already being headed to certain locations for some reason. For example, I initially thought about ordering a Red with white MYP but went with blue instead. Still no vin for me but my local Tesla store just got a 2021 red MYP with white interior. It makes you wonder if maybe these vins people are getting instantly are cars that were on there way to Tesla stores.

 

[DoctorBenjamin]

I have to think some people may be getting vins so fast due to cars already being headed to certain locations for some reason. For example, I initially thought about ordering a Red with white MYP but went with blue instead. Still no vin for me but my local Tesla store just got a 2021 red MYP with white interior. It makes you wonder if maybe these vins people are getting instantly are cars that were on there way to Tesla stores.

Possibly. Also the fact that in some cases people ordered a car but then decide not to go through with it for some reason or the other. Maybe they want a diff color etc etc. So yeah quite possible

 

[N00bMaster69]

I have to think some people may be getting vins so fast due to cars already being headed to certain locations for some reason. For example, I initially thought about ordering a Red with white MYP but went with blue instead. Still no vin for me but my local Tesla store just got a 2021 red MYP with white interior. It makes you wonder if maybe these vins people are getting instantly are cars that were on there way to Tesla stores.

Nope just random unfortunately. There are several red/white MYPs waiting including myself. Placed my order on 10/23. Someone else by me placed their order 10/4 and as far as I know they’re still waiting as well.

 

[kadify]

Nope just random unfortunately. There are several red/white MYPs waiting including myself. Placed my order on 10/23. Someone else by me placed their order 10/4 and as far as I know they’re still waiting as well.

Well if you're desperate there is a new 2021 red w/ white MYP inventory car in CO. Didn't have metal scroll wheels though.