Ghanziang
Member
So 3 out of the 4 Model Y's in Colorado will be blue. And here I thought I was going to have a unique color.
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70 out of 106 (66%) ... lots of deferred revenue for TESLA for sure if this percentage tracks across all new Model Y orders.
For me, I ordered FSD before the price went up so I can see how more advanced (or not) it is by the time delivery happens. I figured give Elon a solid 6 months to come through with some new features. Then I can decide to keep it or take it off beforehand.
My understanding (from word on the M3’s) that as long as you do not edit your config they will honor your price that you received on your reservation.Has TESLA confirmed that reservation prices won't change come delivery? I've asked this question everywhere but no one has responded with any confirmation that a reservation has locked in our price.
My understanding (from word on the M3’s) that as long as you do not edit your config they will honor your price that you received on your reservation.
Of course, if I cancel my FSD, I’ll have to chalk up whatever the price difference changed in the Y from now to then. Guess if the Y goes up 2k I’ll stick with it and be ok paying 4K in the end for FSD.
Only time will tell...
This makes my day let's hope it holds firm. Now I just need to get a handle on when I'll be getting that call saying their building my car .
I'm with you 100% on that and my fingers are crossed as well. For me, an AWD Tesla Model Y for 52K is ridiculously cheap for what we are getting (from the pics I'm seeing) compared to the higher end market right now. We leased a 2019 Volvo XC40 as our small SUV and the sticker on that was around 46K. Don't get me wrong, its a great car and the tech is great, but I cannot wait to trade it in July and wait for the Y to come out. I personally think Elon has been sandbagging the Y and not hyping it up as much to keep the Model 3 sales high (which he appears to be doing quite well.
@bchan911,
• I updated Autopilot options. "None" is not an option anymore. It's either "Autopilot included" or "Full Sef Driving". I changed all entries with "None" to "Autopilot included".
• I removed 18" wheels and changed all entries with 18" wheels to 19".
• I removed the LR RWD version and changed all LR RWD entries to LR AWD.
Let me know if you see another issue. I will add a delivery date column as soon as people start getting delivery dates.
Hi Troy,
Thanks for maintaining the tracking spreadsheet but I think it would have been better to leave the LR RWD orders as is since we are in limbo and don't know what will happen to our orders
I have looked at the numbers and it looks like Tesla will not only skip the RWD Model Y, but they will also have to discontinue the Model 3 SR+ at Fremont (not in Shanghai) because the Fremont factory doesn't have enough production capacity to support all trim levels. In other words, all Model 3/Y at Fremont will be AWD. Let me explain:
1) The screenshot below is from Tesla's Q4 2019 update letter on 29 Jan 2020 here. It says the current Model 3/Y production capacity is 400K/year but it will reach 500K/year in mid-2020. The table also shows 90K/year Model S/X. Therefore, in mid-2020, Fremont will reach 590K/year production capacity. To me, that looks like peak production and I wouldn't expect an increase in the future because peak production at the NUMMI factory was 429K/year. 590K/year would be already a huge improvement over the previous peak level when the same factory was operated by Toyota and GM.
2) Now let's look at how many AWD/P Model 3s Tesla sells per year because they will sell at least the same amount of AWD/P Model Ys too. Tesla delivered 92,620 Model 3s in Q4 2019 and based on my Model 3 Survey here, 30.5% of those were Model 3 SR+ and 69.5% were AWD/P. That means, they delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore Tesla needs 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year. Assuming they need the same number of AWD/P Model Ys, that would be 515K/year.
Therefore I think when things settle down, the Fremont factory will make 240K/year AWD/P Model 3s and 260K/year AWD/P Model Ys. They don't have any capacity left at Fremont for any RWD Model 3 or Y. That's how the situation looks to me.
It's not the same factory. Tesla has had approval from the city of Fremont to almost double the 5.3M sq ft they inherited from NUMMI. Plus they have a lot more automation, including the two automated Storage and Retrieval Systems. Those have a small square footage footprint but are 12 bays high to store pallets of parts. That is how space was created for the Model Y BIW5 line.The table also shows 90K/year Model S/X. Therefore, in mid-2020, Fremont will reach 590K/year production capacity. To me, that looks like peak production and I wouldn't expect an increase in the future because peak production at the NUMMI factory was 429K/year. 590K/year would be already a huge improvement over the previous peak level when the same factory was operated by Toyota and GM.
Nobody suggested this.There is no way they put a factory in China to build cars for the US.
They won't after Q2 2020 because 500K/year 3/Y prod capacity at Fremont is not even enough to cover US/EU demand for Model 3 LR AWD/P + Model Y LR AWD/P. They delivered 92,620*0,695= 64,371 AWD/P Model 3s in Q4 2019. Therefore they need 64,371*4= 257,484 AWD/P Model 3s per year.If Tesla is going to continue to sell SR+ in the US,....
Thanks @Troy this is awesome! Just some notes...@bchan911,
• I updated Autopilot options. "None" is not an option anymore. It's either "Autopilot included" or "Full Sef Driving". I changed all entries with "None" to "Autopilot included".
• I removed 18" wheels and changed all entries with 18" wheels to 19".
• I removed the LR RWD version and changed all LR RWD entries to LR AWD.
Let me know if you see another issue. I will add a delivery date column as soon as people start getting delivery dates.