The M3 terrifies BMW

[dsvick]

I'm struck by the 98% decline in Toyota Prius Plug-In sales. While it's harder to be certain of the Model 3 impact versus changing market conditions (e.g., increase in some BMW X model sales pointed out by others in this thread), I think the Prius Plug-In decline is likely predominantly a Model 3 effect.

Alan

98% sales decline? Reference please ....

I'm pretty sure the Prius decline, and all other hybrids, is due in large part to the cheap gas prices the last couple of years. People, especially Americans, have short memories about the bad things and are quick to forget $5 and $5 per gallon gas prices. In a couple of years when the prices come back up people will be quick to jump back into better mileage alternatives, hopefully, by then, there will be a lot more EV options out there for people to choose from.

 

[Yggdrasill]

The Prius Plug-in decline is due to it no longe being offered for sale. Production ceased June 2015.

It will be replaced by a marginally better version later this year.

 

[AWDtsla]

Not according to any of the basic financial budgeting and planning advice calculators. I referenced one above. Can you point to one that shows a $100K car matching to a $100K income?

You haven't even begun the calculation and you've already gone wrong. S60 is NOT a $100k car. If you add ALL the options to a S60 that aren't S60 options, you STILL don't get a cash price that's 100k, well short of it actually. I would bet the average sale price of a S60 after incentives is 60k. Then subtract fueling and maintenance costs from that, assuming you have a long commute and wouldn't have otherwise bought a Toyota Yaris, Then over the length of ownership it's more like equivalent of a $40k car. A range in which people with 100k incomes are often buying, A4/3 series.

 

[RubberToe]

I'm two or three pages into this thread, with many pages left to catch up on. So I apologize in advance if this point has already been made.

I'm struck by the 98% decline in Toyota Prius Plug-In sales. While it's harder to be certain of the Model 3 impact versus changing market conditions (e.g., increase in some BMW X model sales pointed out by others in this thread), I think the Prius Plug-In decline is likely predominantly a Model 3 effect.

Alan

The Prius plug in decline is because they don't have one on the market yet. Arrival of Prius Prime comes later this year. 22 miles of AER . M3 killer for sure.

 

[gavine]

BMW makes an "M3". I realize everyone means "Model 3" when they say "M3", but I keep thinking of the BMW M3 when I see it. Some are calling it T3. How about TM3, at least in this thread?

 

[Red Sage]

Why BMW spent to much time, money and effort and the i3 is the BEST they could come up with as an EV? They need to back to the drawing board with sharper pencils for their next EV "contribution".

From the perspective of BMW, as is the case with most traditional automobile manufacturers (see Toyota's Mirai), the i3 BEV/i3 REX was an attempt to game the system by taking advantage of specific provisions of CARB regulations that provide extra-special ZEV Credit benefits to specific configurations of compliance cars. The idea was to combat the plug-in hybrid designs typically offered (and widely complained about by EV enthusiasts) that offer hundreds of miles of range on gasoline, but very few (9, 11, 13, 14, 20, 30 miles) on electric drive by setting up an incentive to build something that had a total range 51% electric and 49% ICE (or at least, close to those numbers). So, the i3 REX ended up with a teaspoon full of gasoline capacity to come just short of the maximum range the car could attain with electricity alone. The problem is that the car was set up so that the ICE generator comes on automatically, so there is always a point of overlap, where both gasoline and electricity are being used at once, even though the batteries are not actually fully discharged. Thus, an i3 BEV got an 81 mile range rating, and the i3 REX got 72 miles electric and 150 miles combined with gasoline. Had BMW instead built the car with a 150 mile range with all electric, and 300 miles combined range, that would probably be smiled upon. The problem with the BMW 330e is that it returns to the old paradigm of almost no useful all-electric range, while still allowing a majority of range on gasoline.

EPA Comparison: BMW i3 BEV, BMW i3 REX, BMW 330e, and Ford Fusion Energi

 

[Takumi]

Subtract the $7500 federal tax credit and now the Model S is $58,500.00. And, don't forget local incentives ie: no sales tax on EV's in NJ) and fuel/maintenance savings and the S destroys the 330e all around.

Speaking of the tax credit, why didn't BMW make the battery large enough for it to qualify for the tax credit. Didn't Chevy specifically make the battery of the Volt whatever size it is to qualify? You would think that would make sense since the added cost would be possibly negated by the credit and you would have more EV-only range.

For the record, I have an i3 and I like it a lot. It's NOT great looking but it has a lot going for it. It's not a Tesla by any means, but if it weren't for having a Tesla first, I would have considered it the best car I have ever owned. As good as the i3 is, it makes me realize how much Tesla nailed it with the Model S and X. This assertion is mainly in the software/usability. The i3 software is awful. iDrive is a joke and the charging features and app leave a lot to be desired.

I guess BMW prefers the way it is for its driving dynamics. A larger battery would make it heavier and change the vehicle's dynamics.

 

[Red Sage]

It's not "logic" it is basic budgeting that you will find in just about all financial planning programs. http://www.moneyunder30.com/

Bottom line is that a $100K car is luxury purchase done by those in the top 20% income bracket. The BMW i3 is around $48K. With the T3 two years out for most people, BMW's i3 is a fair replacement. The i3 is selling well and on track for nearly 10,000 sales this year. That is exactly what Tesla and Musk want...Tesla to spur more EV sales.

What Tesla Motors and Elon Musk want is for traditional automobile manufacturers that have capacity to build hundreds of thousands of ICE vehicles to switch to building hundreds of thousands of viable long range fully electric vehicles. 10,000 units of a car like the i3 is nothing compared to the hundreds of thousands of 3-Series BMW will build this year. At least BMW will be offering a version of the i3 that has something (barely) over 100 miles of fully electric range.

Toyota builds on the order of 10,000,000 vehicles per year. They chose to build a total of 3,000 units of the Mirai over the course of three years. That means in three years they will have build 30,000,000 cars, of which only 1/10,000th will be HFCEV, and ZERO will be battery electric. But, maybe 1,200,000 of them will be a variety of Prius over that time frame.

 

[TrevTremaine]

I'm two or three pages into this thread, with many pages left to catch up on. So I apologize in advance if this point has already been made.

I'm struck by the 98% decline in Toyota Prius Plug-In sales. While it's harder to be certain of the Model 3 impact versus changing market conditions (e.g., increase in some BMW X model sales pointed out by others in this thread), I think the Prius Plug-In decline is likely predominantly a Model 3 effect.

Alan

I disagree. The Prius, especially the new Prius Prime are absolutely hideous - they look like a kit car based on a car from a comic strip...only it's sad and will be lonely until it goes through a facelift and buttlift. In seriousness, the decline may also be due to a delay between the old and new model.

The other thing that may be affecting sales is the low price of gasoline.

 

[xav-]

You make a good point. 100k income is not debt free before an S purchase. Many are living above their means. I did buy a house in the 90's (2 of them) and both times felt like I was paying too much. Looking back on it now feels like a steal, 2008 crash or not.
On the gas front: My Yukon has a gallon gas counter and I have used 7350 gallons since buying in 2008. (Gas was over $4.25 at the time) Using $3.00 a gallon as an average , I have spent $22,050 on gas alone in the past 8 years! I will love passing gas stations when the S comes in Savings $200 a month

Gas mileage have improved a long way over the past 8 years! Not saying you don't make a point.. In my case driving a Nissan Altima hybrid from 2008 I quickly realized that the saving would only be around $60 a month. Lots of non hybrid cars now get gas mileage similar or better than my 7 year old hybrid car.

 

[Red Sage]

With its range of "e" vehicles, BMW accounts for 8,500 plus of plug in's sold in the US, over 10% of the total. Good work,

And a much lower percentage of their own total offerings in the US. Not praiseworthy.

BMW had 179,213 in US sales through July 2016, year-to-date. 4,359 as the i3, 786 as the i8, 218 are the 330e -- that's 5,363 cars with plugs this year from BMW. Or, only 2.99% of their total offerings in the US, and most of those are plug-in hybrids. If we assume at least half of the i3 are the BEV variety, and remove the other two cars that come standard with ICE... Then that is 1.216% of their offerings as fully electric -- while Tesla Motors still does 100% electric.

 

[Red Sage]

Not according to any of the basic financial budgeting and planning advice calculators. I referenced one above. Can you point to one that shows a $100K car matching to a $100K income?

Can you show me a configuration of the Tesla Model S 60 he mentioned that comes to $100,000?

 

[Red Sage]

Lol, Did you try the car affordability calculator on that site? It makes my point exactly:

View attachment 189339

Wow. So exact, it's uncanny! Well played!

 

[Red Sage]

Lol...except there are 12 months in a year and you were off by $20,000 in income and the car value becomes $53K.

But at $100K to $120K one is still in the top 20% of income so it makes my point exactly, $100K car is for the highest income groups in the US. The T3 at average $42K, using your basics in the calculator would be an $84,000 income, well over the $52,000 median income in the US. Income Percentile Calculator - Find Your Percent With WhatsMyPercent.com

$186,000 income for the $100,000 Teslas.

No. He wasn't 'off' by $20,000 in income. Go back to his post. He said that the Model S 60 was affordable at a $120,000 per year income. And your own calculator confirmed that. You are the one that is 'off' because you lowered the amount of annual income to $100,000 and forgot what he wrote before.

 

[Red Sage]

???

Since when is "wetting" a verb?
And actually the verb very rarely comes at the end of the sentence in German. Perhaps you should learn the language first, before such statements you make. Wait, now I know, the secret of Yoda's species has been discovered - he was German

And as for the BMW commercial: interesting, they never have ads like that over here. Oh, well, guess the German BMW marketing guys don't have a sense of humour after all...

Personally? I always thought Yoda spoke perfect Spanish. As for 'wetting' it is most often used in English as part of the word 'bedwetting', but it might also be used to describe 'wetting' a car prior to washing it. Though, yeah, most would say they were 'rinsing' the car instead, which might involve subsequently 'wetting' the driveway as well..

 

[Red Sage]

I'm two or three pages into this thread, with many pages left to catch up on. So I apologize in advance if this point has already been made.

I'm struck by the 98% decline in Toyota Prius Plug-In sales. While it's harder to be certain of the Model 3 impact versus changing market conditions (e.g., increase in some BMW X model sales pointed out by others in this thread), I think the Prius Plug-In decline is likely predominantly a Model 3 effect.

Actually, I think Toyota canceled that car because they brought out the Mirai. The Mirai garners them more points on ZEV Credits per unit sold, so they ditched the plug-in Prius for 2016, which rather sucked in prior years anyway. I doubt anyone will miss the 'plug-in for extra miles' car, which only had 11 miles EPA rated range on fully electric -- which might have been only 9 or 10 miles 'in the Real World' -- even worse than the Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid at 13 miles.

 

[TexasEV]

I thought th

 

[CuriousG]

Thus, an i3 BEV got an 81 mile range rating, and the i3 REX got 72 miles electric and 150 miles combined with gasoline.

I was told the newer i3 with bigger battery (not out yet?) has 114 mi range so effectively 40% increase in range.

 

[gavine]

Gas mileage have improved a long way over the past 8 years! Not saying you don't make a point.. In my case driving a Nissan Altima hybrid from 2008 I quickly realized that the saving would only be around $60 a month. Lots of non hybrid cars now get gas mileage similar or better than my 7 year old hybrid car.

But what about performance? If mileage is all you care about, that's one thing but with Tesla, you get that plus incredible performance.

One of the beautiful things about BEVs is that they prove the future can have great performance along with efficiency and environmental friendliness. In most industries, as time goes-on, products get better, but with ICE and new emissions standards, I had always been concerned that we would all be driving 3-cylinder econo-boxes in the future. What kind of future is that to look forward to? Tesla made the future of efficient motoring good again. That makes me happy

The future should be better, not worse.

 

[ChooseGreen]

I think it was raised above, but did anyone else find it funny that in both commercials, the drivers unplugged and drove away with the ICE engine running? Does it mean that the plug-in range is only 10 metres or that the electrical system is so weak that the ICE engine is necessary to get the thing moving? Either way, it is like they pointing out that there is a fundamental design flaw right in the commercial.

Who knows, maybe this was actually Tesla's first ad