There will be NO HW4 upgrade for HW3 owners

[Dewg]

No one wants to destroy a great company. But Elon Musk has made outrageous claims over and over and even recently from hardware that has not changed since 2018. He needs to be liable for his claims, such as millions of robotaxis in 2019 with the Tesla ridesharing network. That was BS. It's not okay to make false claims when you know new hardware and camera placement are required from at least a year of being a company CEO while selling FSD for such a price.

You have likely invested in Tesla and want to defend it. Elon Musk didn't have to make such claims. Why did he? to sell FSD.

Do you think Elon Musk CEO of the company, didn't know the new camera placements would be needed from a year ago while still making these outrageous claims? you think they just found out yesterday this would be needed to place new cameras at different locations?

Please ponder and stop defending

I'm not defending. I even said they may be punished. It's just not what people here think it will be. Think about that.

 

[stopcrazypp]

thats not accurate, he claimed that all cars produced in 2019 will be capable of ride-sharing and make money while you sit at home. That's from autonomy day of 2019 and he has not backed down from claims that Tesla cars are an appreciating asset. So this is not about L2 or L3 or L4... He said the car will be making money for you while you sit at home.

FSD came out in 2016, so demonstratively there are customers that bought the option without ever having seen that presentation. Even for people that bought after that presentation came out, how many have seen it? Do those necessarily mean a contractual obligation to the consumer (or is it investor facing)? Do all the other features under the option have zero value (the ones under EAP). Is there zero value to a door-to-door L2 feature (as currently FSD Beta is)? These are all points Tesla's lawyers will bring out.

Instead, the order page changes are not going to be as disputable. The ones that bought before around 2019, had it right on the order page what features would be possible (linked previously). After around 2019, order page was changed so that the last remaining feature is "Autosteer on City Streets".

It's also possible to see from Wayback Machine that in March 2019 they scrubbed all mention of the possibility of using it for car sharing or ride hailing on the AP page, as this line was removed:
"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."
Autopilot
Autopilot

And to bring it back to the point which you have distracted from, Elon is still insisting HW3 will accomplish whatever he set out previously (however you want to interpret that as), just that HW4 will be an improvement. People here are assuming they have given up completely on HW3, but they are saying they haven't.

No one wants to destroy a company. But one should be liable to for their claims. Don't worry Musk has enough money. Worry about yourself.

You are again twisting things. Plenty of people don't care if Musk loses money (especially after his whole Twitter thing) or if he gets punished. That's different about caring if Tesla goes bankrupt. There's a difference between SEC/FTC issuing a fine to Elon or DOJ putting him in jail, versus for example Tesla having to refund the cost of the entire vehicle for every car that had the FSD option (or even those that didn't). Get the point now?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Musk wants to build the most brutal litigation department..

Hardcore!

 

[M109Rider]

You seem to believe that Nissan's battery dropping in capacity was a bad thing. Fair enough. Good for you, you seem to acknowledge that huge corporations are often not great to consumers.

But you also seem to be arguing that Tesla's sales story around FSD is fine and totally above board? More transparent than Nissan?

Your whole shtick is telling people they are biased against Tesla, without actually explaining why Tesla's behavior was totally OK. Right out of the dictator's handbook. Attack the person, not the idea, always the way you handle an argument when you have the high ground.

You seem to miss the point. Maybe you’re blinded by bias.
I’ve been saying let’s wait and see if they deliver, before making accusations that haven’t happened yet. Makes sense at all?

 

[Huskyf]

I'm not defending. I even said they may be punished. It's just not what people here think it will be. Think about that.

We don't know were this cameras fit it and for what raison perhaps just for replacing ultrasonic , we don't know if fsd not possible with HW3 if not ok we can start a class action but now we don't now the final result they said IF not possible with HW3 the make some retrofit but NOW is not the case please be patient.

 

[Huskyf]

FSD came out in 2016, so demonstratively there are customers that bought the option without ever having seen that presentation. Even for people that bought after that presentation came out, how many have seen it? Do those necessarily mean a contractual obligation to the consumer (or is it investor facing)? Do all the other features under the option have zero value (the ones under EAP). Is there zero value to a door-to-door L2 feature (as currently FSD Beta is)? These are all points Tesla's lawyers will bring out.

Instead, the order page changes are not going to be as disputable. The ones that bought before around 2019, had it right on the order page what features would be possible (linked previously). After around 2019, order page was changed so that the last remaining feature is "Autosteer on City Streets".

It's also possible to see from Wayback Machine that in March 2019 they scrubbed all mention of the possibility of using it for car sharing or ride hailing on the AP page, as this line was removed:
"Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year."
Autopilot
Autopilot

And to bring it back to the point which you have distracted from, Elon is still insisting HW3 will accomplish whatever he set out previously (however you want to interpret that as), just that HW4 will be an improvement. People here are assuming they have given up completely on HW3, but they are saying they haven't.


You are again twisting things. Plenty of people don't care if Musk loses money (especially after his whole Twitter thing) or if he gets punished. That's different about caring if Tesla goes bankrupt. There's a difference between SEC/FTC issuing a fine to Elon or DOJ putting him in jail, versus for example Tesla having to refund the cost of the entire vehicle for every car that had the FSD option (or even those that didn't). Get the point now?

Yes and on others cars company when do you want new improvement you paid a new car

 

[DarkForest]

Well, Elon said they will still deliver FSD with HW3 and HW4 is just going to be better. There will always be better hardware (it's inevitable), the core issue is if they will deliver FSD (whatever that means, whether a door-to-door L2 feature or a L3/L4 feature) with HW3.

Elon said multiple times that HW3 would give us L5. What’s better than L5?

Perhaps less expensive for the customer?

Maybe safer for passengers (and thus cheaper for Tesla due to the L5 liability)?

Could be that it would work in more conditions? Wait, no, then it wouldn’t be L5 which is supposed to work in all conditions a human would.

Wonder if it could be a smoother ride L5, like assertive when it needs to be, chill when everyone else is chill, basically driving with traffic and not like a robot.

 

[JulienW]

Elon said multiple times that HW3 would give us L5....

NEVER happen. I suspect we are 15 to 20 years away from ANY L5 cars. Even humans can't "...drive the vehicle everywhere under ALL conditions". That is one HIGH bar to cross. I'll be surprised if we get L3 on our car's and be elated if we do. Even H4 would be likely to hit L4 at best.

I suspect we are going to just have a "Full Self" Driving assist L2 feature that we have now, just improving (assuming we ever even get V11 ) . Don't see Tesla ever taking over liability and turning the current limited hardware system loose as L3 or higher.

 

[lowtek]

Dear Tesla,

We demand you immediately cease and desist all innovation and progress! A few people, a couple trolls, and at least one person who actually purchased FSD for $15,000 on some forum are (moderator edit) upset.

Sincerely,

The One Lawyer Who Is Stupid Enough To Take On Tesla’s Warchest

 

[dcesq06]

I think my post is quite clear wrt any contentions I may or may not have made. A "casual promise" of course has no exact (and certainly no legal) definition, and that is the point .. it's very hard to win a lawsuit when there is no binding legal agreement. Again, I'm not saying one way or the other on what is morally or ethical correct, just that "Elon said XXX" is a weak claim legally. So the huffing and puffing here about class-actions, and what car owners are entitled to (or not) is going to be hard to prove.

Legally, the best case for owners realistically is they win some reasonable financial compensation, which Tesla will appeal and will get cut in half on appeal, and after the lawyers have taken their cut in about 5 years time you will get a check for $100.

It's not "hard" to win a lawsuit without a binding legal agreement - perhaps "harder" but not hard. There are multiple potentially viable causes of action that one can assert without a binding legal agreement. For example, cases based on false and deceptive advertising...

As for your take on the best owners can hope for - I understand what you are saying, but I don't think that's a practical or realistic conclusion (in terms of the process or the end result that you've outlined).

 

[dcesq06]

But again, dont underestimate lawyers. What do you mean by "fly"? If the car stayed 2 feet off the ground for (say) 10 seconds, does that count? You can be sure that Tesla, if they had to argue this in count, would claim FSD in its current form meets all the promise they made. You may disagree (as probably would I), but the court will disregard your expectations unless you can provide legally binding language (e.g. in a contract) that says more was promised.

That just isn't true - you are hyper focused on the notion that there isn't "legally binding language," but that doesn't mean a party can't be held legally culpable.

 

[jombolo]

I'm sure I'm not the only one struggling with the decision to purchase FSD on a vehicle they know will be coming with HW3. I ordered a Y in mid-Jan when prices dropped and I added FSD. Now that HW4 release is eminent, and no upgrade path, I have reverted back to EAP (which is still not cheap). I currently have FSD Beta on my '18 3 and purchased FSD back in 2019 when it went on sale. It's okay, but as others have stated in here, not close to what was promised. I have no doubt that HW3 will continue to see incremental improvements, but I'm skeptical it will see major improvements. Just curious if anyone else in here is struggling with this decision as well. Cheers!

 

[lowtek]

I'm sure I'm not the only one struggling with the decision to purchase FSD on a vehicle they know will be coming with HW3. I ordered a Y in mid-Jan when prices dropped and I added FSD. Now that HW4 release is eminent, and no upgrade path, I have reverted back to EAP (which is still not cheap). I currently have FSD Beta on my '18 3 and purchased FSD back in 2019 when it went on sale. It's okay, but as others have stated in here, not close to what was promised. I have no doubt that HW3 will continue to see incremental improvements, but I'm skeptical it will see major improvements. Just curious if anyone else in here is struggling with this decision as well. Cheers!

I would not buy FSD for $15,000 in its current state and just subscribe monthly periodically to re-evaluate from time to time.

 

[gearchruncher]

I would not buy FSD for $15,000 in its current state and just subscribe monthly periodically to re-evaluate from time to time.

This, 1000%.
Do the math. FSD is $200 a month, or $15K outright.
That's 6.25 YEARS to break even. That's basically exactly the amount of time it's been since Tesla announced FSD in 2016.

And that's ignoring the time value of money, the chance the car being totaled, selling the car, etc. The real average break even is probably more like 10 years.

You don't even need to "purchase" "FSD" as part of you vehicle purchase if you want it. One of the great tricks Tesla plays on people is getting them to get a loan on a $15K option so you pay $350 a month more for it, while you coulda rented it for $400, and you might not even get what you expected in those 4 years. Think of the people in 2016 that leased a car with FSD and literally never had a line of FSD code delivered to the car.

 

[jombolo]

This, 1000%.
Do the math. FSD is $200 a month, or $15K outright.
That's 6.25 YEARS to break even. That's basically exactly the amount of time it's been since Tesla announced FSD in 2016.

And that's ignoring the time value of money, the chance the car being totaled, selling the car, etc. The real average break even is probably more like 10 years.

You don't even need to "purchase" "FSD" as part of you vehicle purchase if you want it. One of the great tricks Tesla plays on people is getting them to get a loan on a $15K option so you pay $350 a month more for it, while you coulda rented it for $400, and you might not even get what you expected in those 4 years. Think of the people in 2016 that leased a car with FSD and literally never had a line of FSD code delivered to the car.

Def good points. I don't even need to purchase it monthly to check progression because my 3 has beta and I'll already know how it's progressing. The down side...waiting could make it even more expensive to subscribe monthly or purchase outright if it progresses to a point where I would want to purchase it for HW3. If history with Tesla shows, they will raise the price by like $3k when v11 wide releases . To your point, 6.25 years is a long time in car-years.

 

[gearchruncher]

The down side...waiting could make it even more expensive to subscribe monthly or purchase outright if it progresses to a point where I would want to purchase it for HW3.

Tesla is the master of this Jedi mind trick FOMO game.
Interesting point to consider- they haven't changed the sub price at all over the last few FSD price increases. Likely because they know $200 a month is a hard bill for a lot of people to swallow, so going higher will probably cause a drop in subs. Yet when you're getting a car loan at 4.5% APR, what's another $15K?
It's $280 a month, that's what it is. But it's on top of $1K, so who notices?

 

[DanCar]

Wishful thinking. Tesla lawyers will swallow all of us combined.

Check the other thread that says it will be an easy win.

 

[jombolo]

Tesla is the master of this Jedi mind trick FOMO game.
Interesting point to consider- they haven't changed the sub price at all over the last few FSD price increases. Likely because they know $200 a month is a hard bill for a lot of people to swallow, so going higher will probably cause a drop in subs. Yet when you're getting a car loan at 4.5% APR, what's another $15K?
It's $280 a month, that's what it is. But it's on top of $1K, so who notices?

My sentiment exactly. I will probably keep EAP wrapped up in my loan since will use that more regularly (and it's a much smaller pill to swallow) and pay for fsd sub if/when i decide it's "worth it" at the $99/mo. i can def see the argument you're making to just purchase no EAP/FSD w/loan, but i can convince myself EAP "works" since there is no EAP sub

 

[Madmolecule]

There is no such thing as Tesla Full Self Driving, and there never ever will be.

computer and sensors are not capable, has trouble running the new catquest.

the LIABILITY has never been addressed by Tesla or Elon. When you summon out of site or when your able to let the car take over driving where you are not 100% responsible for what the hardware and software, that you did not develop and have no knowledge of, who is Liable

no effort by Tesla to get regulatory approval Anywhere

it is just marketing to Pump the stock, like the bot

 

[EVNow]

4 years.
Tesla’s internal data always shows that full autonomy is about a year away though.

Industry always says AVs are 5 years away.

Checkout statements by almost everyone in the industry - from Waymo to VW to Nissan to ... around 2015. They all said we'd have AVs running everywhere by 2020.