Thinking about Q1 2013 earnings

[vgrinshpun]

Wondering if somebody can comment on the significance of pair of Form 4's filed with SEC today. The quantity of options seem unusual compared to other similar documents.

Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership

 

[Robert.Boston]

What am I missing -- these are for 350 shares each to Elon and JT? Not a big number at all.

 

[Clprenz]

What's even more weird is, it was at market price!?

 

[Robert.Boston]

No, it appears to have been at $0. So, an outright grant. But, seriously, 350 shares @ $41.83 = $14,640.50. This hardly pays for the admin costs of filing.

 

[luvb2b]

so morgan stanley upgrades today, i copied from benzinga below. wow these guys are still pretty well below where i have margins and profits. just don't get how the analysts seem so far behind of where i think tesla will report. stock's up $2.50 on this report, i think. i wonder where it would trade if the reality is even better than the report surmises.

In the report, Jonas noted, “Following Tesla's pre-announcement, we adopted the guidance for net profitability on a GAAP and non-GAAP basis at over 4,750 units of Model S. We raise our FY Model S delivery forecast to 18k from 16k previously, but remain below the company's target as we expect a modestly slower pace of production in 2H as the company rolls out deliveries to international markets. We expect a 0.2% positive OP margin (including stock comp) is the year's peak, falling to -2.4% in 2Q and further in 2H, for a -5% FY OP margin. We expect Tesla benefited from significant sales of ZEV credits in the quarter that we fade to zero by 4Q. For 2014, we expect 20k units delivered, up from our previous estimate of 20k.”


Read more: Morgan Stanley Reiterates Overweight Rating, $47 PT on Tesla Motors on 1Q13 Preview | Benzinga

 

[Citizen-T]

Morgan Stanley confuses me so much. Price target of $47 (current price is just under $46) yet an overweight rating? They must be expecting some crappy performance by the S&P over the next 12 months. They did this before when they cut Tesla's rating to underweight and dropped it's price target to $44. This was when the stock was trading in the 20s. I was confused then too.

 

[Curt Renz]

so morgan stanley upgrades today...

They did not upgrade; they reiterated.

 

[Nicu.Mihalache]

Morgan Stanley confuses me so much. Price target of $47 (current price is just under $46) yet an overweight rating? They must be expecting some crappy performance by the S&P over the next 12 months. They did this before when they cut Tesla's rating to underweight and dropped it's price target to $44. This was when the stock was trading in the 20s. I was confused then too.

I think they are more confused than you (about TSLA). It made absolutely no sense to downgrade to underweight and give a 12 month target that was way above the market price.

 

[DonPedro]

A different take on the upcoming Q1 results: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1370771-tesla-s-q1-earnings-an-epic-april-fools-prank

 

[Citizen-T]

That's a JP link, FYI. Don't click if you like many on this board refuse to give him the revenue.

Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2

 

[luvb2b]

the stock has rallied 50% since i started this thread with a high conviction note forecasting an upcoming earnings beat.

i backed the forecast i put forward by putting my own dollars on the line.

john peterson has been on the wrong side of my train and by his own admission, he has put none of his money where is mouth is.

'nuff said.

 

[Citizen-T]

the stock has rallied 50% since i started this thread with a high conviction note forecasting an upcoming earnings beat.

i backed the forecast i put forward by putting my own dollars on the line.

john peterson has been on the wrong side of my train and by his own admission, he has put none of his money where is mouth is.

'nuff said.

Amen. Anyone who has followed his advice has missed 170% run, or worse yet, has been short for a good chunk of that.

 

[DonPedro]

I love this forum. And I am making a bigger bet on Tesla than on anything else since I was so lucky to do the 3com/Palm arbitrage way back when. Thus not worried about being accused of having money and mouth at different places.

 

[luvb2b]

so as morgan stanley issued lukewarm analyst reports, they quietly corralled a huge stake in tesla during q1.

see: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

 

[NigelM]

so as morgan stanley issued lukewarm analyst reports, they quietly corralled a huge stake in tesla during q1.

see: Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Institutional Ownership & Holdings - NASDAQ.com

Which proves that Chinese Walls do exist and work as they're supposed to?

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Which proves that Chinese Walls do exist and work as they're supposed to?

I presume you are being sarcastic, Nigel?! I read that as if MS (Morgan Stanley, that is) subtly ensured that they got the stake at a cheap level on the investment side by staying lukewarm on the analyst side.

Chinese Walls are only as weak as the beers are strong in the pubs of downtown New York

 

[viperboy]

While I am bullish on TSLA long term, at what point has this stock been run up too much? What could / would spark a correction from the earnings report? I'm looking for an entry point (before or after the earnings, doesnt matter), but watching this thing spike 3-5% day after day makes me thing it's overbought!

[disclosure, no current stake in TSLA]

 

[Citizen-T]

While I am bullish on TSLA long term, at what point has this stock been run up too much? What could / would spark a correction from the earnings report? I'm looking for an entry point (before or after the earnings, doesnt matter), but watching this thing spike 3-5% day after day makes me thing it's overbought!

[disclosure, no current stake in TSLA]

It's overbought. If you aren't in yet, I'd probably stay out of the way, this thing could take your head off. If you absolutely can't, I'd advise using options (if you know what you are doing) or at least don't invest your full position. Save a bunch of cash so you can buy more if the stock does correct.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

It's overbought. If you aren't in yet, I'd probably stay out of the way, this thing could take your head off. If you absolutely can't, I'd advise using options (if you know what you are doing) or at least don't invest your full position. Save a bunch of cash so you can buy more if the stock does correct.

This. The only question is whether there will be a pop after the announcement, and what it's magnitude will be. After that, I expect the stock to normalize at a lower level.

Could be wrong, since it is a judgement call as to how much of Tesla's potential future earnings you want to bring forward to balance against their potential for medium term failure (short term failure is no longer possible).

 

[ShortSlaver]

This. The only question is whether there will be a pop after the announcement, and what it's magnitude will be. After that, I expect the stock to normalize at a lower level.

Could be wrong, since it is a judgement call as to how much of Tesla's potential future earnings you want to bring forward to balance against their potential for medium term failure (short term failure is no longer possible).

And even with a positive earnings call an upward pop isn't guaranteed. The main question is how much potential is already priced in? If TSLA comes in $.07 with good guidance the stock could still take a good hit. It could also move into the $60.00's. I just don't think anyone knows what it's priced at in terms of expectations for the earnings report and guidance. What EPS and guidance does the current price expect?

I'm holding on through the call unless something nutty happens the next few days, but I am not anticipating a massive move upwards - even short-term. Unless they absolutely kill it during the call. To put a large stake of your holdings into TSLA at around $55.00 right now is gambling. Which is OK for certain positions. But I'm not sure anyone knows where it's going to be by Friday this week.