It will. One way or the other.I hope that the whole forum won't go into a frenzy on July 2nd.
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It will. One way or the other.I hope that the whole forum won't go into a frenzy on July 2nd.
Agreed. Spend some quality time with the cars, lock in options, have fun. I'm just not sure if I feel like making the trip again to be honest. Not a fan of California, long flight(s) notwithstanding.
I expect it to be in a complete frenzy from about June 29 - July 31 and then some...
Are we not seeing the same with the Roadster? Up until today they are fixing things on the roadster.Why, oh why?! It's a pleasant, sunny 65 degrees out here today! No way your Punxsutawney Phil can assure you of anything like that till May?! :smile:
I don't mean to dampen the mood here but, letting Tesla take their time might actually be a good thing; the sigs are bound to have minor niggles (that can most definitely be fixed easily afterwards) even without the added pressure of having to deliver by a date set in stone - you sig res holders are the guinea pigs for the benefit of the rest of us gen prod folks who'll get 'perfect' cars! :wink:
No product (and I'm speaking for the software industry to be specific) tends to come out in a perfect form when first officially released; there are bound to be compromises made (or minor blemishes overlooked consciously or unwittingly) to get to a reasonable delivery date. A piece of heavy machinery such as a car - albeit with far fewer moving parts than otherwise - from a first-time assembly line car maker coming off a brand new prod line is that much harder to "nail" from the get go...
If it was BMW or Audi who was bringing out an EV which did not meet my expectations i'd simply ignore them, but what are we all doing?
So if this forum turns into a frenzy around Juli that should be a real big honor for Tesla!
I'm a bit confused about something -- was there some announcement or indication that Sigs could not get the 19" wheels if they chose? Also, don't Sigs have their choice of 4 coIt wouldn't make sense for them to allow 19" tires and a lower price point -- the whole point of the Sigs (and this was clear from day one) was that it would be a "fully loaded" car with very few options, and if 21" tires are an upgrade/option, then that fits the bill. But I would think they'd allow people to take 19" tires for the same price during the Sig run. Do we know otherwise?
A gentleman (Discoducky) on the TM forms had this post on manufacturing ramp up that I thought was pretty damn cool. It seemed relevant.
Here ya go, you asked for it...
[...]
In order to hit their goal (6000 by years end) and if I had to guess it would be this:
[...]
Wow, that huge mass of really cool, useful information DiscoDucky takes the time to post, and that is what you choose to take from it? Not only do you single out just that one line, but you see it as some sort of deliberate attempt to set up things for disappointment.Nope. Although numbers of 6000 and even up to 7000 are sometimes mentioned as possibilities, the goal is 5000. Five thousand.
Don't pre-program the next disappointment.
Wow, that huge mass of really cool, useful information DiscoDucky takes the time to post, and that is what you choose to take from it? Not only do you single out just that one line, but you see it as some sort of deliberate attempt to set up things for disappointment.
I understand being a Tesla fan, but he's just sharing his manufacturing experience. Was there something wrong with just saying something like "Neat, but a quick correction. The target goal is 5k, not 6k." ?
QG5 in July/Aug with 1000 (accounts for 1)
So TM should be able to ramp up to full production without issue in 5 weeks, but that won't happen I'm guessing. It will take 5 to 10 cycles to hit 400. That should take about 4 to 6 months (8 to 12 weeks) assuming all the other things I pointed out go smoothly.
I have a hard time believing the 6K number only since I've had to bring up several computer manufacturing lines.
The only way they can do 6K cars by this time next year will be:
That was what I got from it, that the process was interesting.I found DD's posting interesting not for the volumes, but the description of the process.
I found DD's posting interesting not for the volumes, but the description of the process.
Re numbers: DD's from the computer industry, and the raw material cost of a computer, less the salvage cost of parts you can pull from a QC-rejected computer, is pretty small; also, the objects themselves are small. I took with a healthy dose of skepticism that Tesla could ramp up as quickly as DD suggested.
Re process: This description, especially of early-stage development, struck me as highly plausible and would explain why "getting the line up" isn't enough to instantly go from 0 to 400 cars per week. Helpful insights into the world of manufacturing for those of us far removed from making things on an assembly line.
Based on what experience do you make that guess? That would have been my naive guess as well, but having now heard from someone with roughly 1000x more manufacturing experience than me, I believe my gut instinct was probably wrong.Regarding the process, I guess I would expect them more to, for example, progress from 'low speed/low failure rate' towards 'high speed/low failure rate'.
Good question and no idea. I'd guess not all problems are equal.I would expect that if they make a batch of cars and there is a failure in quality control on that batch that they would fix what went wrong and not throw all those cars in the used parts bin and start over.
I also have no idea what the regulations are. If one of the air bag components on the line has some sporadic failures and isn't passing the quality control checks, do you really want one of the cars from that run? Can they even legally ship them? I'd want a car that passed from a clean run. On the other hand, if it's a slight gap in how the left fender lines up that's a matter of turning a screw three times, maybe that's perfectly fine (and legal) to hand fix that batch.
Based on what experience do you make that guess? That would have been my naive guess as well, but having now heard from someone with roughly 1000x more manufacturing experience than me, I believe my gut instinct was probably wrong.
Actually, I'd guess they run at low speeds during the debugging process of actually getting the robots to work at all, but that's sort of in the "development" stage. In order to pass the quality gates, you run at full speed.
Which makes perfect economic sense really from a risk perspective. You absolute, positively don't want to find a timing bug at full speed when inspecting a batch of 500 cars... You want to find it much, much earlier in the process when you're running a batch of 1/100th of that quantity.
Based on what experience do you make that guess? That would have been my naive guess as well, but having now heard from someone with roughly 1000x more manufacturing experience than me, I believe my gut instinct was probably wrong.
Actually, I'd guess they run at low speeds during the debugging process of actually getting the robots to work at all, but that's sort of in the "development" stage. In order to pass the quality gates, you run at full speed.
Which makes perfect economic sense really from a risk perspective. You absolute, positively don't want to find a timing bug at full speed when inspecting a batch of 500 cars... You want to find it much, much earlier in the process when you're running a batch of 1/100th of that quantity.
Oh my god, so funny! Fond memories of watching the show with my grandmother.The best example of what happens when "low speed/low failure rate" doesn't match up with "high speed" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnbNcQlzV-4 :tongue:
The best example of what happens when "low speed/low failure rate" doesn't match up with "high speed" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnbNcQlzV-4 :tongue: