Elon and Tesla disagree. But your electric vehicle startup should definitely consider it as an option.
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Torque and Horsepower upgrade kits on M3P?
- Thread starter butterscotch
- Start date
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Like who?
Model 3s been out for years, the competition remains pretty garbage.
Who's selling an EV significantly below 3.0 0-60 for this price exactly?
Nobody. But what if Audi does next month? Certainly a few people would pick one up. Why not stay ahead of the competition instead of being reactionary when the competition catches up?
I certainly can’t argue with their success. But if you look at any business rise and fall over the history of time, it’s because they stubborn and weren’t able to stay ahead of the game. Xerox. Blackberry. All auto makers other than tesla.
Im not saying tesla is falling behind. I just love them so much thst I always want to see them ahead!
…or because their customer service goes to absolute crap. Looking at you, Tesla.
They are not going to cannibalize sales of their flagship product.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The idea legacy auto can just "catch up" has been something folks have been saying for 9 years now, and it keeps not turning out to be true.
Audi can't do that next month. Or, based on what they've shown so far, next year either.
There's also this mistaken notion that the only, or even primary, competitor for an EV is another EV.
Especially for legacy companies, most new EV sales are replacing an ICE sale-- not a different EV.
And legacy simply can't MAKE that many EVs because they lack battery supply- and that's not going to stop being true for MANY years into the future.
So basically everyone who can make a -good- EV is going to sell every one they can make through at least the end of the decade if not beyond.
But more directly- When you already offer an objectively better performing product than anybody else, and have for years, and look likely to keep doing so for years, all for less money, and you sell them faster than you can make them, which is all true of the Model 3, it makes 0 economic sense to bump performance further if it'd require hardware changes.
It's not like you can sell more than "all" your production.
It's easy to forget just how expensive and hard it was to make power with NA cars. The first $1000 on a turbo car was always very rewarding though.
Yeah. I'll look I to them. I've been swapping tires back and forth for the last 2 weeks. Between the ps4s and pirelli elects... The pirellis are by far a better performance tire. Definitly open to other suggestions.
This is a pretty non-standard opinion in performance driving circles. The PS4S is the absolute king of street tires. It may be the actual best street legal rain tire out there period. When I've AutoX'd against people on the Pirellis vs the PS4S, I'm always way faster. The list of performance cars that come with PS4S tires from the factory is legendary (Porsche, Corvette, BMW M, AMG, etc), while the Pirellis are nowhere near as common.
It may very well be a better street performance tire when noise, rolling resistance, comfort, or drive-ability are all considered. But for peak grip and performance for 3 season operation?
The RE71RS is not available in North America, don't bother. It's an amazing performance tire if you actually track the car, but even the track junkies I know don't drive it on the street except to/from the track. It's noisy, wears very fast, and isn't great in the rain.
What is your goal for tires that outperform the PS4S/Pirellis on the street? The next realistic step up is the Michelin Pilot Sport Cup 2's, which are what come on the things like the GT3 RS. They do require more warming up to perform however, so they are lower performance on the street in most cases (just like the RE71's)
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My traction controls kicks in all the time when I'm hammering on it with the Michelins. With the pirellis. They just grip and go. Have about 2k on the Michelins and 10k on the pirellis. That's why I grabbed a set. Heard nothing but good reviews. Not what I found. I hands down prefer the pirellis.
Those Michelins are not OK. Until my (admittedly old) RE71's are hot, I can spin them, but I can never spin the Michelins (in a straight line...). But I also define performance as cornering as much as straight line grip.
What's the date code, size, and model of those PS4S?
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Gimmethecash
Member
Are we talking about PS4S’s or PS4’s? The former is an excellent street tire, the latter is not as awesome.
Tesla certainly didn’t have to offer the AB for $2000 to LR models. But they did.
We know there’s an easy 25hp there because of the model y. Let’s us have that and charge us. People will pay for it.
Ya thsts true. I remember added a $25 eBay manual boost controller and $100 analog boost gauge in my 1991 Toyota mr2. Blew my mind added 5psi of boost.
Hasn't it basically been proved that a M3P is acceleration limited, not HP limited?
Someone did a test and showed it did the same 0-60 going up a slight hill as down, and drew more power going uphill than it does on flat ground.
The extra 25 HP might just be because the MYP weighs more. MYP doesn't have track mode so they don't have to support continuous power output for as long either.
That's a point that everyone really seems to overlook.
Elon and company didn't build that huge battery factory in Nevada just for fun.
There just isn't enough battery manufacturing capacity in the world right now to support a true *mass market* EV from any of the legacy car makers.
Until new battery production is brought online, all of these new "Tesla killers" coming from legacy auto makers will remain low volume cars that can never truly compete with Tesla in the mass car market.
I haven't followed closely- but what is Ford's battery supply chain for the lightning?
The reality is that batteries will limit ALL manufacturers for years. Tesla makes 500K cars per year. The world makes 80M. Tesla can't dominate the legacy ICE manufactures either- they need 12X the current capacity just to hit Ford's total production of cars (and Ford makes 1/2 as many as Toyota or VW) and 160X the capacity to make all cars.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It was those SK batteries that LG sued over.
Eventually SK paid off LG so they're allowed to make em again, but supply remains pretty crap.
Hence why when Ford announced they would "double" their lightning production the double number still sucked.
Ford is now ramping all the way up to.... 15,000 trucks in 2022.
That's about 6 days worth of ICE F-150 annual production.
In fact even with their ramping up doubling, it'd be sometime in 2024 before they produce enough at their current schedule just to fill pre-orders... which themselves were over 10x less than the Cybertruck got.
(and don't forget, regular folks won't get to buy the cheap lightning either- that's only for contractors)
Nope.
Tesla made 500k last year.
By end of this year they'll be much nearer 1 million cars than 500k.
And are likely to double that again next year with Austin and Berlin ramping up production each with initial built capacity comparable to the 2 existing factories. That means Tesla might well pass BMWs worldwide sales next year
Likely we'll hear soon about the next couple of gigafactories, and expansions of the ones in TX and China, to ramp further beyond that.
Likewise their battery capacity is ramping in a similar fashion, taking all the suppliers can give, plus expecting to have at least 3 more of their own cell producing plants next year than they had last year.
Because unlike everyone else they actually realized, a long time ago, it's the batteries that matter.
Also no.
The world peaked around that in about 2017 and have since continued declining.
They were roughly 55-65 million last year, depending on your source.
One minor point of order.... Tesla sells more cars than Ford does right now
Most of Fords sales are trucks.
Anyway-Tesla expects greater than 50% CAGR every year through 2030.
Target is 20 million units a year on or before 2030. Which would be roughly 1/3rd of all new vehicles sold based on 2020 numbers anyway.
Toyota was about 9.5 million last year FWIW... Ford was about 4.2 million.
At current pace Tesla can be expected to pass Ford in total vehicle sales probably by end of 2024. Maybe sooner if ICE sales experience the collapse some predict when folks realize they'll have no resale value by the later half of the decade.
Toyota will take a bit longer... though maybe not much longer given how hard Toyota is working to be the Nokia of this particular technology transition.
While you might doubt Tesla will hit that target- so did everyone in 2014 when they predicted they'd sell 500k cars by 2020.
Which is what they did anyway.
They've maintained greater than 50% CAGR every year of mass production, going back 9 years now. And have actively planned to do. No reason to doubt they'll do it for the next 9 too.
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Appreciate the interesting numbers and analysis!
Statistia shows a peak of 97 in 2018 and 92 in 2019, which is where I rounded down to 80 from....
I assume you don't think too much of Ford's goal to build 60GWh by 2025 and 240 by 2030?
I wasn't arguing that Tesla was going to die, but not sure that Tesla is the single savior either. 2030 is a long way away, and Tesla has proved that any company can ramp tremendously in 10 years, and the industry has learned a lot in those 10 years.
Quoting car production in 2020 during COVID isn't all that useful.
Statistia shows a peak of 97 in 2018 and 92 in 2019, which is where I rounded down to 80 from....
How many Cybertrucks in 2022?
I assume you don't think too much of Ford's goal to build 60GWh by 2025 and 240 by 2030?
This is an interesting thing to point out from the person that just defended the $35K Model 3 as if it was really a thing that Tesla made that helped advance affordable EV's and wasn't a marketing stunt.
Really? They made 386K in Q1/Q2. So you're playing the game that they'll do 770K this year, and that highly refutes the idea they make 500K cars and are "much nearer to 1M"?
Ok, so 1/3 in 2030. But that's still 2/3 for other companies. I mean, that's good for Tesla not disappearing, but it doesn't mean all cars will be Teslas, and in fact says that someone else is also going to figure out batteries, and Tesla will need to fight on features, price, service, warranty, quality, etc also. I guess they will be able to save a lot on their future cars since they won't need steering wheels.
I wasn't arguing that Tesla was going to die, but not sure that Tesla is the single savior either. 2030 is a long way away, and Tesla has proved that any company can ramp tremendously in 10 years, and the industry has learned a lot in those 10 years.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Ok, but your 80 million was still wrong for 2019 too.
You appear to need to pay to see their sources- but I suspect they're lumping ALL vehicles, not just light passenger vehicles.
And sure enough if we look for a better source we find:
Here's the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers to clarify-
We don't get to the #s you claimed with just consumer vehicles-
ALL vehicles gets you to 77.9 million in 202 and 90 million in 2019... but only 53.6 million actual passenger vehicles in 2020 and only 63.7 million in 2019.... the rest are commercial vehicles
So again, nowhere near 80 million, even pre-covid.
Given Fords 2025 "goal" is slightly less than Tesla appears on track to use this year...and they have yet to break ground on a single actual battery factory....not really no.
By 2030 Tesla is planning to have 3 Twh of production all by themselves, 12.5 times what Ford is "aiming" for without having every built a battery.
Plus Tesla said they'll keep buying as much as suppliers will sell em on top.
Not really.
Tesla sold em to anybody who asked for one- they just didn't sell em for that long.
Ford on the other hand is explicitly locking out consumers from buying the LR version of the truck at all at an attractive price.
Because unlike Tesla, they have juicy high-profit ICE sales they have to keep protecting.
Every electric F-150 they sell is a higher margin gas one they don't
So unlike Tesla they are poorly motivated to ramp quickly, or offer good bang for the buck when doing it.
No. Quite a bit higher than that.
Write it down. Check you were wrong about it later.
Notice Q2 was 10% higher than Q1? Q3 will be higher than Q2. Q4 higher than Q3. (Q4 especially as we'll likely get some small contributions from Austin and maybe Berlin too)
Tesla production keeps increasing
Yes. It's called growth.
Saying Tesla can only make 500k cars a year, today, is outright dishonest. They make almost 400k in just Q1/Q2, and those are the LOWEST production quarters this year will see.
Notice again how Q1 2021 was higher than Q4 2020 even with Tesla not producing 2 of their 4 models at all?
2021 final numbers will likely come out pretty near to 850,000-900,000. While that's not a million, it's much nearer to that number than 500k
Write that down- be sure to check me on it later as long as you're sincere enough you'll also check if it's right
When did I say all cars would be Tesla?
Was it never? I'm pretty sure it was never.
Nope. It says two things.
One, by 2030 total vehicle sales are likely to be significantly lower than they are today for at least a couple of reasons:
A) Who is going to want to buy a new ICE in 2030 when they know how worthless it'll be down the road? Instead they'll wait for the EV they want, maybe keep their used running car on the road a bit longer.
B) SOMEBODY is gonna have robotaxis working-- if not everywhere, at least in a lot of major cities. Thus reducing the need for car ownership significantly (certainly at least the need for 2nd or 3rd cars in a household).
And two-
It says there'll still be way too many ICE vehicles sold in 2030 because of how incompetently (or intentionally badly) legacy has handled the whole transition--- some folks will NEED to buy a new car, and there's not gonna be nearly enough new EVs to go around. (How not nearly enough will depend on how far total new car sales drop from items A and B)
Probably not.
From what we've seen on the various teardowns of legacy EVs versus Teslas, Tesla has a 5-10 year lead there on most of it already- and is getting further ahead as they go.
I admit if Lexus survives to 2030 they're probably still going to have nicer waiting rooms at the service center though-- which is good since you'll be spending a lot more time and money at em than you will the Tesla ones.
Have they?
Where's the evidence?
There's still EVs coming out today that remain measurably inferior to the ones Tesla made in 2012.
GM just had to recall every BEV they ever sold because they (and LG) can't figure out how to safely make a car battery.
Go look at Sandy Munros comparison teardowns where most other EVs remain basically "an ICE car they slapped an electric motor and batteries into" with massively more parts, cost, and complexity compared to Tesla vehicles and tell me how much they "learned"
