Quoting car production in 2020 during COVID isn't all that useful.
Ok, but your 80 million was still wrong for 2019 too.
Statistia shows a peak of 97 in 2018 and 92 in 2019, which is where I rounded down to 80 from....
You appear to need to pay to see their sources- but I suspect they're lumping ALL vehicles, not just light passenger vehicles.
And sure enough if we look for a better source we find:
Here's the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers to clarify-
We don't get to the #s you claimed with just consumer vehicles-
www.oica.net
ALL vehicles gets you to 77.9 million in 202 and 90 million in 2019... but only 53.6 million actual passenger vehicles in 2020 and only 63.7 million in 2019.... the rest are
commercial vehicles
So again, nowhere near 80 million, even pre-covid.
I assume you don't think too much of Ford's goal to build 60GWh by 2025 and 240 by 2030?
Given Fords 2025 "goal" is slightly less than Tesla appears on track to use
this year...and they have yet to break ground on a single actual battery factory....not really no.
By 2030 Tesla is planning to have 3 Twh of production all by themselves, 12.5 times what Ford is "aiming" for without having every built a battery.
Plus Tesla said they'll keep buying as much as suppliers will sell em on top.
This is an interesting thing to point out from the person that just defended the $35K Model 3 as if it was really a thing that Tesla made that helped advance affordable EV's and wasn't a marketing stunt.
Not really.
Tesla sold em to anybody who asked for one- they just didn't sell em for that long.
Ford on the other hand is explicitly locking out consumers from buying the LR version of the truck
at all at an attractive price.
Because unlike Tesla, they have juicy high-profit ICE sales they have to keep protecting.
Every electric F-150 they sell is a
higher margin gas one they don't
So unlike Tesla they are poorly motivated to ramp quickly, or offer good bang for the buck when doing it.
Really? They made 386K in Q1/Q2. So you're playing the game that they'll do 770K this year
No. Quite a bit higher than that.
Write it down. Check you were wrong about it later.
Notice Q2 was 10% higher than Q1? Q3 will be higher than Q2. Q4 higher than Q3. (Q4 especially as we'll likely get some small contributions from Austin and maybe Berlin too)
Tesla production keeps
increasing
, and that highly refutes the idea they make 500K cars
Yes. It's called growth.
Saying Tesla can only make 500k cars a year, today, is outright dishonest. They make almost 400k in just Q1/Q2, and those are the LOWEST production quarters this year will see.
Notice again how Q1 2021 was higher than Q4 2020 even with Tesla
not producing 2 of their 4 models at all?
2021 final numbers will likely come out pretty near to 850,000-900,000. While that's not a million, it's
much nearer to that number than 500k
Write that down- be sure to check me on it later as long as you're sincere enough you'll also check if it's right
Ok, so 1/3 in 2030. But that's still 2/3 for other companies. I mean, that's good for Tesla not disappearing, but it doesn't mean all cars will be Teslas
When did I say all cars would be Tesla?
Was it never? I'm pretty sure it was never.
, and in fact says that someone else is also going to figure out batteries
Nope. It says two things.
One, by 2030 total vehicle sales are likely to be significantly lower than they are today for at least a couple of reasons:
A) Who is going to want to buy a new ICE in 2030 when they know how worthless it'll be down the road? Instead they'll wait for the EV they want, maybe keep their used running car on the road a bit longer.
B) SOMEBODY is gonna have robotaxis working-- if not everywhere, at least in a lot of major cities. Thus reducing the need for car ownership significantly (certainly at least the need for 2nd or 3rd cars in a household).
And two-
It says there'll still be way too many ICE vehicles sold in 2030 because of how incompetently (or intentionally badly) legacy has handled the whole transition--- some folks will NEED to buy a new car, and there's not gonna be nearly enough new EVs to go around. (How not nearly enough will depend on how far total new car sales drop from items A and B)
, and Tesla will need to fight on features, price, service, warranty, quality, etc also
Probably not.
From what we've seen on the various teardowns of legacy EVs versus Teslas, Tesla has a 5-10 year lead there on most of it already- and is getting
further ahead as they go.
I admit if Lexus survives to 2030 they're probably still going to have nicer waiting rooms at the service center though-- which is good since you'll be spending a lot more time and money at em than you will the Tesla ones.
I wasn't arguing that Tesla was going to die, but not sure that Tesla is the single savior either. 2030 is a long way away, and Tesla has proved that any company can ramp tremendously in 10 years, and the industry has learned a lot in those 10 years.
Have they?
Where's the evidence?
There's still EVs coming out
today that remain measurably inferior to the ones Tesla made in 2012.
GM just had to recall
every BEV they ever sold because they (and LG) can't figure out how to safely make a car battery.
Go look at Sandy Munros comparison teardowns where most other EVs remain basically "an ICE car they slapped an electric motor and batteries into" with massively more parts, cost, and complexity compared to Tesla vehicles and tell me how much they "learned"