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Waiting another year would allow the OP to either buy the latest and greatest from Tesla or find a 2 year old 100D for 30-40% off. Just a thought. Based on Elon latest tweets on battery capacity increase timeline, we're probably looking at 10% increases every 18-24 months (my best guess).
I'm going through this analysis right now. My 85D lease is up in February 2019, and I'm very tempted to order the 100D for delivery in December 2018 to get the $7,500 tax credit this year. But, I can buy my 85D (which only has 22K miles) off lease for $66K whereas a new 100D will set me back around $107k (after $7.5k federal tax credit). So, is the extra $50k worth the upgrade?
Not charging as often, and having fewer supercharger stops is a selling point for me. But, since I only drive about 8,000 miles a year, and mostly short trips too and from work, the range is almost never an issue for me.
I really can't tell the difference between my AP1 and my wife's AP2 in her X.
I also don't think that waiting for battery improvements is a good reason to hold off on upgrading now. While a lot of people here are speculating about battery improvements, that's all it is -- speculation. There have not been any major Model S battery improvements in the past 3 years -- not since they bumped the 85 to the 90. Who knows when the next improvement will be, and if Tesla will actually make a 110 or 120 Model S, as opposed to simply keeping the 100 as the high end car when they improve the battery tech. but just using fewer batteries to make it and thereby generating more profit per car.
The same goes for tech. improvements. Who knows what types of improvements will be made, so waiting for unknown possible improvements doesn't make much sense.
I'm happy with the way my Model S nose cone looks, and how the seats feel, so likewise wouldn't upgrade for those changes.
It does seem that the Model S could be in for additional body changes, since there have not been many in the past 2 years, so I could see waiting for the next body revision. But, then again, that's all speculation.
Thinking it through, the extra $50k is not a good financial decision. But, I still may get the new car simply because I can afford it, love new cars, and am willing to bet that there are not going to be any major changes to the Model S in the coming year (at least) while Tesla is fighting to survive by ramping up production of the Model 3. We'll see.
I agree with you. Apart from a couple of smaller bonuses (free supercharging, hepa filter, a few tenths in speed, etc.) the 3 LR Dual is looking like the best value 300 Mile option at the moment. If only you could get the non P version with white interior.Unless you need the space, get the Long range model 3 to hold you over until they reach lily upgrade the model s with something more substantial. In a recent calculation I did for driving 9 hours for 3 cars.
The total charging time of my 90D was around 1:46 minutes optimizing the stop locations.
The model s 100d saved around 25-30 minutes compared to my 90D
The model s long range saved around 48 minutes compared to my 90D.
So the best car right now in terms of range and charging time is the model 3. Sure it might not get free unlimited supercharging but those times you do supercharge you will can use the lower insurance cost or lower car registration to pay for those occasional road trip supercharging.