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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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The big issue with "financing a factory" is that the financer sees no upside. As a result, they need risk to be minimized. They need to know that the loan will be repaid. The maximum return they can get is below 10%.

The two big risks for China are...
  1. Creditors would need to be certain that Tesla's US finances are sound (they aren't).
  2. Creditors would need to be certain that, when the factory was fully operational, demand would be there. there already has competitors in China that are well ahead of them, so this is unknown.
I think financing for a Gigafactory is off the table until Tesla proves it's not at any risk of default.

You are not thinking like China. Creditor is looking to steal Tesla trade secrets.
 
C'mon people. Elon isn't stupid, so why are you all discussing this "short burn" thing like he's naive and foolish? The VW short burn happened for one simple reason: there were no shares available to trade. So since Elon predicted an epic short burn, he must have some plan for vastly reducing the available trading shares. One way would be if a couple of major players suddenly bought serious long term positions. I suppose there are other ways, possibly something Tesla could do itself?

But since Elon isn't stupid, there has to be something more than good business related news. That isn't enough, no matter how good it is.
 
It appears they failed to make 4000 in the first week of July. So are they making money yet?
I think you missed the public announcement that they shut down the M3 line through July 4 (maybe it was all week, I can't remember) to give people a rest, and bring all the lines up to date with the advances made on the third line during the previous week.
 
continuing to move up with time running out on regular US trading hours before news hits.

of course, as several of us already mentioned in the thread, almost a sure thing there are stories in waiting designed to short-splain a major Tesla China deal.

if Tesla has something to announce considerably bigger than anticipated, shorts playing the media game might not have anything ready to the scale of the announcement.
 
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The big issue with "financing a factory" is that the financer sees no upside. As a result, they need risk to be minimized. They need to know that the loan will be repaid. The maximum return they can get is below 10%.

The two big risks for China are...
  1. Creditors would need to be certain that Tesla's US finances are sound (they aren't).
  2. Creditors would need to be certain that, when the factory was fully operational, demand would be there. there already has competitors in China that are well ahead of them, so this is unknown.
I think financing for a Gigafactory is off the table until Tesla proves it's not at any risk of default.
IIrc Panasonic has already publicly said they would be happy to go in with Tesla on more factories. Regarding demand, the model 3 is looking likely to be the best selling car in the US by the end of the year if it outpaces the Camry. There are a lot of electric cars in China already, but none as good as the model 3 unless somebody starts making something really cool
 
I just don’t see this “shot squeeze” happening. There would have to be some astronomic announcement. People are already expecting a China gigafactory and positive Q3. But in the short term we have a lot more pain coming, Q2 financials will be ugly

Yea I agree with all this. But what keeps nagging at the back of my mind is that Elon’s no dummy. He would surely know that 5k per week wouldn’t cause a short burn. So it’s either he has something else to announce that will really move the needle, or I just have to chalk it up as too much ambien/red wine.
 
Is your short position making any money? :)

Yes, I'm up about 124%. Bought 355 July puts that were out of the money (and now solidly in the money).

The short burn isn't coming. I think the only thing that could do it is a general capital raise that's 2B or more.

Financing for a China factory doesn't help their US balance sheet.
 
Then what are you doing on this forum? Go grab some popcorn !

Seeing if I should go for the TSLAQ play. I'm waiting for someone to convince me that the Twitter Shorts are spreading FUD, not facts.

But sadly no one wants to discuss a critical perspective.

Example: luis carruthers on Twitter

Supplier is suing Tesla for $200k. What do you make of this?
 
I just don’t see this “shot squeeze” happening. There would have to be some astronomic announcement. People are already expecting a China gigafactory and positive Q3. But in the short term we have a lot more pain coming, Q2 financials will be ugly
Just as people may be anticipating the China factory announcement and positive Q3, they are also expecting ugly financials for Q2. That will certainly not surprise anyone.
 
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