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TSLA Technical Analysis
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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- elon is an ass TSLA
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
TrendTrader007
Active Member
bdy0627
Active Member
I think he just forgot to factor in the massive naked shorting. Otherwise nailed it.
Bob Prechter's Elliott Wave International is currently conducting a free webinar on its form of technical analysis.
Link : How to Spot Reliable Trade Setups in Any Market and Any Time Frame :: Elliott Wave International
You can choose to enter the webinar now in real time or to start from the beginning.
Bob was one of my first guests on my old TV show. We have endorsed each other's books.
Link : How to Spot Reliable Trade Setups in Any Market and Any Time Frame :: Elliott Wave International
You can choose to enter the webinar now in real time or to start from the beginning.
Bob was one of my first guests on my old TV show. We have endorsed each other's books.
TSLA’s all-time intraday high was $389.61 on 2017 SEP 18. A Fibonacci decline of 38.1966% would be at $240.79. Approach of that level served as support in March and October of last year. The share price fell under today. Not good. For shareholders it needs to quickly get back above. If not, the next potential Fibonacci support level would be a drop of 50% from the high to $194.805.
You're welcome, Dave. I made certain to put that only in this Technical Analysis thread, after a mod started complaining yesterday when people did otherwise. So wouldn't you know it, today folks start filling this thread with non-TA posts.
This thread is for Technical Analysis only. Several posts not related to TA have been moved to the general thread. Any further such posts will be removed.
Mod
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I read a comprehensive study showing that Fibonacci levels specifically have zero predictive value, so I'll ignore this.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Market : '' We have applied Elon's time to this request, your request is now granted''
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
For your typical educated investor 10% would be a reasonable limit in any single stock. However Tesla is one of the most contentious, volatile stocks in the stock market today. So unless you have a stomach for high levels of volatility anything more then 10% will no doubt induce moments of panic and poor decision making. For me personally I'm at about 20% in TSLA where previously I never had a single stock more then 10%. I bought into Tesla at about an average of 190/share in the 2016 time frame. My only regret is I didn't do a better job trading around the volatility. Tesla for me is a long term holding but will begin to lighten up if/once we reach $1000/share and reduce by 50% if we breach $2000 a share. I also run about 20-30% in cash at all times which allows me to take more single stock risk. Due to long term employment with a single company and associated 401k my primary holding is a simple S&P 500 index.
With that said at $250/share is a great entry point from a historical price perspective if you are bullish on the stock. I suspect if we get solid delivery numbers in Q2 we will return to mean or the $325 level pretty quickly. If we break out of this multi-year base of $250-$380 I think $100 billion or about $600/share will come quickly. It will be driven by profitability and growth which should dampen the volatility of the stock and reduce the high levels of contentious exhibited by this stock. I think the breakout to $600 a share will happen in 2020 once the china factory is in volume production. $2500/share maybe by 2023/4 if robo taxi take off.
With that said at $250/share is a great entry point from a historical price perspective if you are bullish on the stock. I suspect if we get solid delivery numbers in Q2 we will return to mean or the $325 level pretty quickly. If we break out of this multi-year base of $250-$380 I think $100 billion or about $600/share will come quickly. It will be driven by profitability and growth which should dampen the volatility of the stock and reduce the high levels of contentious exhibited by this stock. I think the breakout to $600 a share will happen in 2020 once the china factory is in volume production. $2500/share maybe by 2023/4 if robo taxi take off.
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Having been a licensed broker for many years and in the financial industry for 40, I don't think there's any reasonable licensed advisor who would recommend having as much as 10% in any one stock, especially one that gyrates around as violently as TSLA. If you are managing a $5M portfolio, having $500k in ANY 1 stock, be it Amazon, AT&T, Exxon, or any other name that you throw on the table is a huge bet. A bet, not an investment. Full disclosure -- I've traded TSLA, riding the violent gyrations..
Your view here is unfortunately coming from something called Modern Portfolio Theory, which was developed in the 1950s and became industry dogma to the point where it was embedded in the law.
However, Modern Portfolio Theory is, essentially, wrong. I had a long chat with my father, who is an actual expert in mathematics, about it once. It makes incorrect mathematical assumptions about the markets.
It is a really off-topic conversation to discuss this, but I will just say that Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and several of the other greatest investors in history think Modern Portfolio Theory is bunk and diversification has no inherent value.
I think of diversification as a hedge against your own incompetence at stock picking. Which I suppose means it works for people who aren't good at investing. It doesn't make sense if you're doing intensive research and are good at analysis and interpretation.
The much older, pre-1950s point of view was that you should never have less than 5% of your money in any one stock. Because it is impossible to really, properly follow the details of more than 20 stocks, and even that is too much for most people. And you shouldn't invest in anything which you don't understand backwards and forwards.
I totally agree with your last statement.
If I don't understand and agree with the fundamentals of a company, their business model and their industry, I won't touch it regardless of people projecting "to the moon" money. This has kept me entirely out of social (SNAP, PINS, TWTR) and other companies where I don't think they have a sustainable future such as GRPN.
There are different approaches to diversification. I pick themes such as emerging 5G, break that supply chain into carriers, component/chip makers and device makers, and within each, select the 2 or 3 companies that I think are going to see the greatest returns. I suspect that I'm a bit ahead of the curve on this, but I think that within 12 - 18 months 5G is going to completely change the fundamentals of the Internet, device interconnectivity in ways that we can't even imagine now. On this one theme, I have roughly 20% of my portfolio, so that while I have diversification across a limited number of different themes, I also have diversification within each theme, and know exactly why each company is there.
But, I also avoid companies like Tesla that gyrate violently simply because they gyrate violently as I have no idea what's around the corner. And going back to an earlier statement, if I don't understand and agree with the fundamentals of a company and their business model, I won't touch them. I know that there are a lot of people on this list who will strongly disagree with **my opinion** which is all ok as we all have opinions and need to respect those of others, but I put Tesla in that category, as I have no clue what headlines are going to come out from one day to the next.
If you’re trying to minimize volatility in your portfolio, that’s understandable. But if you are investing for the long haul, then most of that single stock volatility shouldn’t matter. It only matters if the stock happens to be down when you need to sell shares. For what it’s worth, I have more TSLA than today’s conventional wisdom says I should have.
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