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Ugh. Another Model S fire - 2013-11-06
- Thread starter tommolog
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- Driving Dynamics fire Model S
Hmm. Speaking of the Porsche Panamera, what happens when we type "Porsche Panamera fire" into the Google machine?
http://flatsixes.com/cars/porsche-panamera/recall-turbos-fire-risk/
Oh. A recall for faulty bearings that can cause oil to leak into the exhaust and catch fire? That's not good.
What does Mr. Google have to say about Audi S7s?
http://blogs.automotive.com/audi-recall-s6-and-s7-models-called-back-after-fire-risk-154389.html
Oh, my. A recall for damaged fuel lines that might lead to a fire risk?
http://flatsixes.com/cars/porsche-panamera/recall-turbos-fire-risk/
Oh. A recall for faulty bearings that can cause oil to leak into the exhaust and catch fire? That's not good.
What does Mr. Google have to say about Audi S7s?
http://blogs.automotive.com/audi-recall-s6-and-s7-models-called-back-after-fire-risk-154389.html
Oh, my. A recall for damaged fuel lines that might lead to a fire risk?
Sounds like we need to dig up some statistics on vehicle accidents that are caused by driving over debris - and then quote it over and over again here at TMC so the media might actually start to pick up on it! The more specific we can get, the better... fatalities, fires, etc. Anyone have access to that kind of info?
As for the stock price drop today (which I'm guessing is still Q3 report fallout, not from the fire...at least so far), I'm seeing this as a potential buying opportunity. I just wish I had sold at 185 so I could buy back in with even more now! Even though it's a big stretch for me financially, I'm also seriously thinking about putting down my Model X deposit now, to show my support of the company...
As for the stock price drop today (which I'm guessing is still Q3 report fallout, not from the fire...at least so far), I'm seeing this as a potential buying opportunity. I just wish I had sold at 185 so I could buy back in with even more now! Even though it's a big stretch for me financially, I'm also seriously thinking about putting down my Model X deposit now, to show my support of the company...
I've been doing the math and Tesla has a problem on its hands. If you consider average age of the car, then Tesla is far more likely to catch fire than any ICE vehicle. Let me explain.
The average ICE vehicle is 11.4 years old (we'll just use 11). During those 11 years, the rate of fire is ~138,600/230,000,000 (controlling for intentional fire, etc.). That means risk of fire over the life of an ICE car is 0.0006. To get the risk per year, we have to divide by 11. We get 0.00005.
Now, do the same calculation for Tesla. The average care is 1 year old (actually younger, but this will favor Tesla to use 1 year). There have been 3 fires and there are about 12,500 Model S sedans out there. That means we have 3/12,500 = 0.00024. We divide by 1 to get the same answer back.
That means risk of fire is 0.0024/vehicle yr for Tesla and 0.00005/vehicle hr for an ICE. That means risk of fire is 4.8 fold higher for the Tesla. It gets worse though.
According to the NHTSA, risk of fire in an accident is about 2.9/1,000 accidents in an ICE. The rate of accident overall is about 2% of all vehicles on the road. If we do that calculation for Tesla, then there would have been 12,500 * 0.02 = 344 accidents so far. If we have 3 fires, then rate of fire per accident is 3/344 = 0.0087, which is 8.7/1,000. That is a three fold higher risk of fire per accident. For Tesla to be at the same rate of fires/accident, there would need to be ~1,000 accidents or roughly 8% of all Model S would need to be wrecked.
None of this bodes well for what was, until now, the "safest car in the world." Telsa needs to figure out what is going on and fix it IMMEDIATELY because this will not just kill the company, it will set EVs back decades.
The average ICE vehicle is 11.4 years old (we'll just use 11). During those 11 years, the rate of fire is ~138,600/230,000,000 (controlling for intentional fire, etc.). That means risk of fire over the life of an ICE car is 0.0006. To get the risk per year, we have to divide by 11. We get 0.00005.
Now, do the same calculation for Tesla. The average care is 1 year old (actually younger, but this will favor Tesla to use 1 year). There have been 3 fires and there are about 12,500 Model S sedans out there. That means we have 3/12,500 = 0.00024. We divide by 1 to get the same answer back.
That means risk of fire is 0.0024/vehicle yr for Tesla and 0.00005/vehicle hr for an ICE. That means risk of fire is 4.8 fold higher for the Tesla. It gets worse though.
According to the NHTSA, risk of fire in an accident is about 2.9/1,000 accidents in an ICE. The rate of accident overall is about 2% of all vehicles on the road. If we do that calculation for Tesla, then there would have been 12,500 * 0.02 = 344 accidents so far. If we have 3 fires, then rate of fire per accident is 3/344 = 0.0087, which is 8.7/1,000. That is a three fold higher risk of fire per accident. For Tesla to be at the same rate of fires/accident, there would need to be ~1,000 accidents or roughly 8% of all Model S would need to be wrecked.
None of this bodes well for what was, until now, the "safest car in the world." Telsa needs to figure out what is going on and fix it IMMEDIATELY because this will not just kill the company, it will set EVs back decades.
R134a and R1234yf are refrigerants for the AC system. Per the First Responder guide, the battery coolant is the typical glycol-based coolant you find in cars--which is flammable.
O
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Aviators, again, I'm not looking to label anyone "criminal." I still contend that if she is an expert on cars, I find it implausible that she believes that one fire for any other manufacturer would lead to a "congressional investigation" and a "drawing and quartering in front of the press." As is widely mentioned here on TMC, there are roughly 500 car fires every single day. If one fire equals congressional investigation, cars would have been banned decades ago.
mnx
2018 M3P
I don't recall any injuries or deaths from any of those 3 fire that have happened so far... Still the "safeest car in the world" imo.
There's no way your "statistical analysis" would hold up to even the mildest scrutiny. Insufficient data.
RoverS
Banned
Gizmotoy
Active Member
The interesting measure here is the distance from the top of the ball to the bottom of that nut. It's not likely to be sitting on its end like in your picture, but sitting with the ball upright seems quite likely. We know how much clearance we have on low, and I'm interested in how that compares to your hitch height.
If that's a standard 2" receiver, the total height looks to be slightly greater than 4" (4.25-4.5" roughly). Just tall enough to smash into the battery with the suspension on low. Further, depending on the orientation at impact, the force could cause the hitch to pitch up slightly, delivering potentially another 1/4" or so of height along with an upward force. Not good.
Interesting rough analysis. I was pretty much expecting something along those lines, and the results don't seem preposterous.
The Model S is obviously a safe car. Even in these incidents that resulted in fires, no serious injuries have been reported.
That said, two tow hitches in a month... that's astronomically unlikely. The first seriously damaged the battery requiring its replacement, and this one caused a fire. Not great.
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Odenator
Member
Hmm, if this guy is a doc and the first guy was an orthopod, then may be we docs shouldn't be driving this car.
Model S is safer than any other car made...ever! But improvements could be made
Let's start off with this: I am still very confident in my Model S and its ability to protect my family from injury in any accident more so than any other automobile that money can buy. This is the primary reason I bought the car. I do believe that if such an incident were to occur in a vehicle with a gas tank where it was punctured the likelihood of permanent injury exponentially increases due to the volatility of gas and the design of modern day unibody ICE chassis.
However, it does appear that it *might* be more susceptible to damage from road debris in that the undercarriage could use more ballistic protection in the front as debris encountered at high speed will most likely be perturbed and affect the undercarriage due to the air pressure caused by a fast moving object or if a front wheel clips or hits the object and directs it toward the undercarriage. And if it is affected will do so in such a way as to act on the vehicle in the front to middle of the undercarriage.
Of course this is all circumstantial and since I've never seen any of the damage to any of the vehicles I'm making some broad assumptions. I do have experience and knowledge of how materials act when clipped or under changes in air pressure, turbulence and laminar flow.
For instance, if the car is travelling at highway speeds and lowered itself to increase range (as the air suspension does) or is of a sufficient height as to cause a hardened object laying on the surface of the road or even a hardened moving object on the road, the air pressure change or front wheel contact caused as the car comes in its closest proximity to the object will be the most likely time to cause the object to move and thus increases the chances of the object coming into contact with the undercarriage, as it is assumed the object is of a certain size, shape, mass and hardness as to have the potential to do harm. If the object is not perturbed due to the sudden change in air pressure due to the car moving above then it will most likely not be perturbed as the car completes is pass of the object and will not likely do any damage to any part of the car.
Conclusion: I do hope that TM investigates higher ballistic protection and can withstand higher penetrating forces in the front to middle of the undercarriage for S, X and GenIII
Let's start off with this: I am still very confident in my Model S and its ability to protect my family from injury in any accident more so than any other automobile that money can buy. This is the primary reason I bought the car. I do believe that if such an incident were to occur in a vehicle with a gas tank where it was punctured the likelihood of permanent injury exponentially increases due to the volatility of gas and the design of modern day unibody ICE chassis.
However, it does appear that it *might* be more susceptible to damage from road debris in that the undercarriage could use more ballistic protection in the front as debris encountered at high speed will most likely be perturbed and affect the undercarriage due to the air pressure caused by a fast moving object or if a front wheel clips or hits the object and directs it toward the undercarriage. And if it is affected will do so in such a way as to act on the vehicle in the front to middle of the undercarriage.
Of course this is all circumstantial and since I've never seen any of the damage to any of the vehicles I'm making some broad assumptions. I do have experience and knowledge of how materials act when clipped or under changes in air pressure, turbulence and laminar flow.
For instance, if the car is travelling at highway speeds and lowered itself to increase range (as the air suspension does) or is of a sufficient height as to cause a hardened object laying on the surface of the road or even a hardened moving object on the road, the air pressure change or front wheel contact caused as the car comes in its closest proximity to the object will be the most likely time to cause the object to move and thus increases the chances of the object coming into contact with the undercarriage, as it is assumed the object is of a certain size, shape, mass and hardness as to have the potential to do harm. If the object is not perturbed due to the sudden change in air pressure due to the car moving above then it will most likely not be perturbed as the car completes is pass of the object and will not likely do any damage to any part of the car.
Conclusion: I do hope that TM investigates higher ballistic protection and can withstand higher penetrating forces in the front to middle of the undercarriage for S, X and GenIII
The Model S is not the first car with the battery under the entire floor, the LEAF also had it's battery under the car just like the Model S and has been on the roads now for almost 3 years. Coincidentally, it appears that a LEAF is pulled over ahead of the Model S in one of the pics.
Now, the LEAF's battery is higher off the ground than the Model S, but I still haven't heard of any similar types of fires with a LEAF. The LEAF's battery is protected by some flimsy under-body material and sheet metal.
Increasing the thickness of the under plate of the Model S is going to be expensive/heavy, but it may be possible to add additional shielding in front of the battery pack. It appears that the leading edge of the battery pack is the lowest solid part of the car so the battery takes the brunt of any debris that is just slightly higher than the car's clearance. An additional durable skid plate just in front of the pack may catch this type of debris before striking the battery. Or it may not - it probably depends on exactly what you're running over.
Good pics of underbody here: 2012 Tesla Model S Signature Performance Suspension Walkaround
PS - personally I would rather run over debris in a Model S or LEAF with the battery under the floor as the battery acts as a huge shield protecting the floor from being penetrated by debris. It's probably irrational, though, I can't imagine that injuries due to debris penetrating through the floor is common.
"The driver, identified as Juris Shibayama, struck a tow hitch that was in the middle of a lane, which damaged the car’s undercarriage and caused the fire, Qualls said. Shibayama was able to pull the car over to the side and was uninjured, Qualls said."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/tesla-falls-after-third-model-s-car-fire-mover.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-07/tesla-falls-after-third-model-s-car-fire-mover.html
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Correlation does not imply causation, and the overall figure for a Model S catching fire is still very low.
Let's say 50% of Model S owners decided to run their car into a concrete barrier at 80mph. The rate of Tesla fires would rise astronomically, but would it be the fault of the car's design? Of course not.
Your math is fuzzy and you got a decimal place wrong, it would be 0.8% of Teslas in an accident would result in a fire with your fuzzy math.
By the way, welcome to the forums and your first ever post. What made you register and put your first FUD post in this thread?
araxara
X-LR M3AWD, MYLR
When doing a factory tour during TESLIVE, I clearly saw the labeling they had at the factory. It was actually a large note for the assembly people. It said to use R1234yf for Europe and R134a for others.
+1 to this. If the car is going to be severely damaged regardless, the occupants being unharmed is the key priority and so far the Model S has been exemplary.
One could argue for the driver it would be advantageous in some ways for the car to total itself so that in the end you have a brand new one vs a repaired car involved in an accident. In this particular case, he can get power folding mirrors now
The debris that caused the fires in cars #1 and #2 could have very well intruded the passenger compartment in an ICE-car. The drivers of the Model S escaped without injuries, the driver of an ICE-car in the same circumstances could have suffered (serious) injuries. So the battery under the floor may cause the Model S to be more prone to fire from intrusions by road debris, at the same time it reduces the chance of injury.
Something else I was wondering about: the Model S, when equiped with the air suspension, lowers itself at higher speed for less drag. This increases the chance of road debris touching underside of the car. So maybe Tesla should consider a software change that keeps the car at a higher elevation (or at least, not automatically lowers the cars. I've often thought the car would be more comfortable if I wasn't forced to use the lowest suspension mode. At the moment it is programmed so you can't raise the car when driving on the highway).
One guy over at the Bloomberg commenting section raised the correct questions:
"...So my questions are,
1. How many times has a Tesla been struck by, or run over, debris in the road and sustained damage that did not cause a fire?
2. How often, per mile driven, do cars of all types encounter strikes or run over road debris with sufficient force that it would be likely to cause a rupture in a Tesla battery pack, resulting in a potential for fire?
2a. What is the typical damage caused to an internal combustion engine vehicle when this type of strike occurs (e.g., oil pan breach, drive shaft bent, exhaust pipe damage) and how often would such damage cause something as significant as a fire? Remember, by the time something gets all the way to the rear of the vehicle where the gas tank could be punctured, it's likely already interacted with the more forward areas of the vehicle and thus lost much of its relative inertia.
this is the core Elon has to answer proactively and ASAP.
"...So my questions are,
1. How many times has a Tesla been struck by, or run over, debris in the road and sustained damage that did not cause a fire?
2. How often, per mile driven, do cars of all types encounter strikes or run over road debris with sufficient force that it would be likely to cause a rupture in a Tesla battery pack, resulting in a potential for fire?
2a. What is the typical damage caused to an internal combustion engine vehicle when this type of strike occurs (e.g., oil pan breach, drive shaft bent, exhaust pipe damage) and how often would such damage cause something as significant as a fire? Remember, by the time something gets all the way to the rear of the vehicle where the gas tank could be punctured, it's likely already interacted with the more forward areas of the vehicle and thus lost much of its relative inertia.
this is the core Elon has to answer proactively and ASAP.
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