US Federal $7,500 Electric Vehicle Credit Expiry Date By Automaker

[dhanson865]

Wishful thinking ...
Tesla does not need to increase production complexity when they can continue to sell every High Margin LR model 3 they produce.

We will know by either June 30th 2018 or September 30th 2018. Just to see if we can get a consensus I've created a poll: There are 6 major configurations of the Model 3, poll question about some getting $7,500 tax credit

 

[FlatSix911]

We will know by either June 30th 2018 or September 30th 2018. Just to see if we can get a consensus I've created a poll:
There are 6 major configurations of the Model 3, poll question about some getting $7,500 tax credit

Poll taken ... How many of these configurations will be sold to non employees before the $7,500 tax credit runs out?

2. The First Avalble plus a config with AWD, LR, and PUP (more expensive than first available)

 

[dhanson865]

Poll taken ... How many of these configurations will be sold to non employees before the $7,500 tax credit runs out?

2. The First Avalble plus a config with AWD, LR, and PUP (more expensive than first available)

The poll in the thread has significant grouping around your answer. 56% say 2.

There is some grumbling about changing the rules and opening the EV tax credit up to a date based expiration instead of the 200,000 mark phaseout or just making it open ended with no end date. If that were to happen it'd sort of invalidate my poll but it wouldn't hurt my feelings.

 

[dhanson865]

On the topic of Tesla and 200,000 the current insideevs scrorecard totals are:

US running total Tesla Sales vs 200,000 for federal credit phase out trigger

2011 end 1,900
2012 end 4,550 (2,650 for 2012 + prior year)
2013 end 22,200 (17,650 for 2013 + prior years)
2014 end 38,889 (16,689 for 2014 + prior years)
2015 end 64,305 (25,416 for 2015 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2016 end 111,424 (47,119 for 2016 + prior years, Model S and Model X)
2017 end 161,571 (50,147 for 2017 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)
2018 partial 169,431 (7,860 for partial 2018 + prior years, Model S, Model 3, and Model X)

Jan 2018 was ~3400
Feb 2018 was ~4500

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us?

Mar 2018 will be ~6000
April 2018 will be ~7000
May 2018 will be ~8000
June 2018 will be ~9000
July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.

Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit

To do that they can't sell more than 30,500 or so in the US between March 1 and June 30. Then they can open the flood gates on Jul 1 with no reason to hesitate or focus on Canada or European shipments. Any thing they make over 30,500 in that time they need to sell outside the US.

If they can't make more than 30,000 in 4 months it doesn't matter.

In a nice scenario they make 45,000 or so in those 4 months and sell the excess 15,000 to Canadian customers. Maybe they switch over to Canadian car production for a couple of weeks in June and then switch back to US and stock pile a couple of weeks worth for July delivery.

If somehow they make more than US and Canada need in those 4 months they have to pick a 3rd country to start sending cars to. I doubt it comes to that. Surely there are enough Canadian reservations to absorb any overflow for a few months.

 

[EVNow]

Let me offer an alternate theory.

If Dems take the house in '18, there is some chance of a change in tax credit limits. The one I'd like to see is
- Instead of 200k per manufacturer, make a single pool of 2 Million for all manufacturers
- This way early adopters like Tesla, GM don't get penalized
- Laggards like Honda don't get a pass

 

[ℬête Noire]

If Dems take the house in '18....

...there's a huge backlog of stuff due to several years of the House being a dysfunctional mess of sound & fury accomplishing nothing. Plus there's other non-legislative, "oversight" stuff that's inevitably going to be a huge time drain as well. Even if the EV tax credit was a sizable priority it'll be tough to work out rational details of a sensible way forward to manage to fit it into the also [nigh inevitable] budget continuing resolution and Treasury Bill ceiling raise that'll be needed in Spring of next year. Then that's got to get through an almost certainly closely divided Senate (with who knows which party controlling it, more likely GOP)....and of course then signed by the WH, whatever shape & mood that place is in by then.

Long shot but I guess you can dream.

 

[FlatSix911]

Lets assume round thousands to make the math simple and increase by 1000 per month until we hit 200,000. I'm not saying that will happen but if it did where does that put us? July 2018 will be ~10,000 (209,431) triggered July is in Q3 so full credit until end of 2018.
Q3 2018 Full credit still
Q4 2018 Full credit still
Q1 2019 50% of full amount
Q2 2019 50% of full amount
Q3 2019 25% of full amount
Q4 2019 25% of full amount
Q1 2020 no credit

Nice forecast, however this is an unlikely scenario.
Tesla Model 3 production is significantly accelerating based on new VINs
More likely that Tesla will hit 200K production in 2Q18 so the tax credit phase out is shown in Scenario 3 below.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Nice forecast, however this is an unlikely scenario.
More likely that Tesla will hit 200K production in 2Q18 so the tax credit phase out is shown in Scenario 3 below.

First off, that graphic is increasingly archaic. Scenario #1 has been dead for several months. Scenario #2 has been assumed dead for some time and it's time to throw dirt on it's ripening corpse as well, right?

Secondly, where are the actual numbers at at this point? The VINs reservations are now hinting at at least a late Q2 rather than an early Q2, right? Besides M3's production lapses during line retrofits, Jan & Feb S & X numbers have been off year-over-year I think? The later may be because Tesla has been transitioning to a lot of rail delivery, which is slower logistics so [spoken for but undelivered] inventory would have been building as that pipeline fills up.

How big a window does that open for Tesla to wiggle the 200K mark into the first week of Q3?

 

[dhanson865]

Nice forecast, however this is an unlikely scenario.

That's what everyone told me last summer when I said they'd have the option to defer a quarter. We are a heck of a lot closer to that scenario now than we were last July or October.

 

[dhanson865]

First off, that graphic is increasingly archaic. Scenario #1 has been dead for several months. Scenario #2 has been assumed dead for some time and it's time to throw dirt on it's ripening corpse as well, right?

scenario 1 and 2 on that graphic are the same scenario, they differ only to explain the point that it doesn't matter if the 200,000 trigger happens on day 1 of the quarter, day 45 of the quarter or day 89. Any day in the same quarter gives you ~90 possible dates but only 1 real result.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Quick, crude shoop to brush away the farcical and bring it up-to-date. Complete with fresh new patina of farce, a Paint X Lite watermark.

 

[FlatSix911]

More wishful thinking ... the truth will set you free

First off, that graphic is increasingly archaic. Scenario #1 has been dead for several months. Scenario #2 has been assumed dead for some time and it's time to throw dirt on it's ripening corpse as well, right?
Secondly, where are the actual numbers at at this point? The VINs reservations are now hinting at at least a late Q2 rather than an early Q2, right? Besides M3's production lapses during line retrofits, Jan & Feb S & X numbers have been off year-over-year I think? The later may be because Tesla has been transitioning to a lot of rail delivery, which is slower logistics so [spoken for but undelivered] inventory would have been building as that pipeline fills up.
How big a window does that open for Tesla to wiggle the 200K mark into the first week of Q3?

That's what everyone told me last summer when I said they'd have the option to defer a quarter. We are a heck of a lot closer to that scenario now than we were last July or October.

scenario 1 and 2 on that graphic are the same scenario, they differ only to explain the point that it doesn't matter if the 200,000 trigger happens on day 1 of the quarter, day 45 of the quarter or day 89. Any day in the same quarter gives you ~90 possible dates but only 1 real result.

Quick, crude shoop to brush away the farcical and bring it up-to-date. Complete with fresh new patina of farce, a Paint X Lite watermark.
View attachment 288027

 

[SteveG3]

Nice forecast, however this is an unlikely scenario.
Tesla Model 3 production is significantly accelerating based on new VINs
More likely that Tesla will hit 200K production in 2Q18 so the tax credit phase out is shown in Scenario 3 below.

More wishful thinking ... the truth will set you free

FS911, I’d of said the same as you up to a month ago, but, since that time, for someone on top of the available information, I don’t know how a case can be made that Tesla is not at least actively positioning itself to execute on deferring to Q3 if all the pieces continue to fall into place.

Perhaps you have not seen this, but Canadian owners and non-owners have been told mid-2018 for deliveries, including dual motor and dual motor SR (ahead of any US reservationists getting dual, or SR, including owners). Why would Canadians get moved up about six months within days of US reservation holders getting pushed out 9 months (which, of course, incurred a great deal of frustration) if Tesla wasn’t doing this to open the possibility of pushing out the 200K delivery mark? If this is not about deferring to Q3, this move further reduces the number of US reservationists getting the credit- why would Tesla do that?

 

[dhanson865]

More wishful thinking ... the truth will set you free

and what truth is that?

 

[ℬête Noire]

More wishful thinking ... the truth will set you free

I don't delude myself, it's very much a long, long shot. But it's still more reasonable/plausible than that defunct trash graphic you posted. It also serves the purpose of driving home how how far the production has to slide to get the full credit into Q4.

 

[dhanson865]

Quick, crude shoop to brush away the farcical and bring it up-to-date. Complete with fresh new patina of farce, a Paint X Lite watermark.

again, no need for 3 scenarios with 2 outcomes. Lets simplify it to 2 scenarios with 2 outcomes that can happen now.

 

[gregincal]

FS911, I’d of said the same as you up to a month ago, but, since that time, for someone on top of the available information, I don’t know how a case can be made that Tesla is not at least actively positioning itself to execute on deferring to Q3 if all the pieces continue to fall into place.

Perhaps you have not seen this, but Canadian owners and non-owners have been told mid-2018 for deliveries, including dual motor and dual motor SR (ahead of any US reservationists getting dual, or SR, including owners). Why would Canadians get moved up about six months within days of US reservation holders getting pushed out 9 months (which, of course, incurred a great deal of frustration) if Tesla wasn’t doing this to open the possibility of pushing out the 200K delivery mark? If this is not about deferring to Q3, this move further reduces the number of US reservationists getting the credit- why would Tesla do that?

Canadian high margin cars got pulled in at the same time US low margin cars got pushed out. It all has to do with selling as many high margin cars as possible before low margin cars, that’s all.

 

[SteveG3]

Canadian high margin cars got pulled in at the same time US low margin cars got pushed out. It all has to do with selling as many high margin cars as possible before low margin cars, that’s all.

Tesla has far more people in the US on the reservation list who can buy those dual motor cars, than in Canada... why change plans and turn to Canada?

What's more, Canadians are being told the SR version (with dual motors) will be available in mid-2018... if it's about higher margin cars, why would Tesla turn to delivering lower margin SR dual motor cars to Canada when they have plenty in the US who would take higher margin LR dual motor cars?

 

[gregincal]

Tesla has far more people in the US on the reservation list who can buy those dual motor cars, than in Canada... why change plans and turn to Canada?

What's more, Canadians are being told the SR version (with dual motors) will be available in mid-2018... if it's about higher margin cars, why would Tesla turn to delivering lower margin SR dual motor cars to Canada when they have plenty in the US who would take higher margin LR dual motor cars?

Many US and Canadian dual motor owners both have mid 2018 as their delivery dates. A greater percentage of Canadians have mid 2018 as a dual motor delivery date than US, but in pure numbers there could easily be just as many mid 2018 US dual motor deliveries. And who knows what mid 2018 means. It could be about spreading out delivery capacity, and they expect far greater amounts of Canadians ording dual motors, so that if they only offered first production they would run through the orders there too quickly.

 

[SteveG3]

Many US and Canadian dual motor owners both have mid 2018 as their delivery dates. A greater percentage of Canadians have mid 2018 as a dual motor delivery date than US, but in pure numbers there could easily be just as many mid 2018 US dual motor deliveries. And who knows what mid 2018 means. It could be about spreading out delivery capacity, and they expect far greater amounts of Canadians ording dual motors, so that if they only offered first production they would run through the orders there too quickly.

I am not aware of any US reservationist being told that SR dual motor will be available as early as Canadians are now being told it will be ("mid-2018"). Have you seen something on this I haven't?

fwiw, I'm an owner who was invited to configure a 3 in late January. Dual motors was pushed back for me to "late 2018" at the same time Canadian reservationists (including non-owners) were moved up for dual motor... are you sure there are still any US reservationists currently showing dual motor earlier than "late 2018?"