Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Alt-Powertrain-Report-3Q-18-Release.pdf

upload_2018-9-3_1-36-8.png



upload_2018-9-3_1-37-3.png
 
Based on the top 20 AFVs sold in CA last year, every manufacturer combined generated about 150k credits. Tesla alone has hit 140k credits in the first half of 2018. To make matters worse, at least for existing manufacturers, they're only at ~50k credits for the first half of 2018.

They can discount their plug-ins to sell more, but then they lower their profit margins. Granted, all the larger manufacturers have enough ZEV credits banked to last a year or two, but CA's set to increase the credits required every year starting in 2018 and Tesla's gonna eat their lunch if and when the ramp up SR production.

Another other interesting possibility is if Tesla decides to limit ZEV credit sales at some point to prop up their value. They would lose out on a hundred million per year in revenue, but if they can limit availability to the point where other manufacturers have to pay more in ZEV fines, they would have a competitive advantage. They might not take much of a hit if they can get S/X production to 40k/quarter and sustain it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Electroman