US Market Situation and Outlook (Rob Stark's American Megathread)

[Doggydogworld]

I thought this was the year Tesla surpassed Nissan. Maybe this year.

Or if not this year, then this year for sure (j/k, I know what you meant).

Tesla CA registrations were down a little despite Model Y, mostly thanks to COVID, while Nissan was almost cut in half! Tesla was +40% in Q4 after being down in Q3. Model 3 sales drop as Y ramps, and Y-SR should increase that effect, but it's not 1:1 so the 3+Y total should still show growth. I'd expect CA 3+Y to be up ~50% this year. Also Tesla is becoming less dependent on CA. It's around 1/3rd of US sales now vs. almost 1/2 a few years ago. Market share is still much higher in CA (4.4%) than the rest of the country (1.5%).

 

[RobStark]

Tesla Tops in Consumer Reports Owner Satisfaction Survey

BTW All luxury brands get 1/5 for Value.

 

[RobStark]

 

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[RobStark]

This doesn't really fit here but thought it was funny so.....

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

But where do I charge my non Tesla EV?

CCS 120 kWh+ Charging Stations in the USA as of Now.

 

[RobStark]

U.S.: West Coast Had Highest Plug-In Electric Car Sales Per Capita

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

 

[Electroman]

I can't believe there are only 22K EVs in Texas, even lower than Washington state?

 

[Doggydogworld]

I can't believe there are only 22K EVs in Texas, even lower than Washington state?

WA has had pretty strong incentives over the years. And a longstanding tech community. That said, these numbers look very outdated. Roughly 1m EVs were sold in the US in just the past 3 years. And most EVs sold from 2011-2017 are still on the road, that adds another 750k. I'd guess this data is close to 3 years old, and excludes PHEVs.

 

[Electroman]

I would guess there will be 20k EVs just in the DFW area and north texas.

 

[RobStark]

Saw the chart in an article on electrek. Can't find the source.

The best (and worst) US states for EV charging

A comprehensive breakdown of the best and worst charging infrastructures in the US, sorted by state using ratio data of EVs to chargers.

electrek.co

 

[RobStark]

The Electric Vehicle Sector is Surging - CleanTechnica

The Electric Vehicle Sector is Surging — Here’s Why

cleantechnica.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

View attachment 653432

The Electric Vehicle Sector is Surging - CleanTechnica

The Electric Vehicle Sector is Surging — Here’s Why

cleantechnica.com

Their 3/Y numbers are a bit too high. 182.8k global - 69.3k China - 30.7k Europe leaves 82.8k for North America and ROW. Troy estimates a little over 6k for ROW, which seems slightly low to me based on shipping and Japan's surge. But 6k leaves just under 77k for North America. The US is typically 90% of North America, with Canada close to 10% and a few in Mexico. That puts US 3/Y sales at 69-70k, coincidentally equal to China. Lets say ~45k Ys and ~24k 3s, roughly a 65/35 split