Given that the Model Y has only been shipping this year and only in the US, I'm having difficulty believing the Tesla number.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
It's not that far off. Troy estimated 59k, but was 4k too high overall so could easily be off 2k in the US. Model Y is cannibalizing Model 3 in the US, we just can't say how much with Covid muddying the waters.
Global Y/Y growth of 42k looks to be:
+32k China
+5k US
-3k Europe
+8k ROW (esp. Korea but also Hong Kong, Mexico, etc.)
InsideEVs had Tesla at 52k last year (almost 3k lower than Cox). 52k + 5k would be ~57k vs. Cox's 54.8k. We'll get a better idea as more numbers come in.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
California 2020 Q3 Sales.
Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share
Total.........................1,199,446 ..................................100
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-20.pdf
Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share
- Toyota........202,013 ...........,..........................16.8
- Honda........141,206.........................................11.8
- Ford...........109,397..........................................9.1
- Chevrolet...89,901..........................................7.6
- Nissan........58,948..........................................4.9
- Tesla.........50,100......................................4.2
- Subaru......49,879............................................4.2
- Merc Benz..46,232..........................................3.9
- KIA.............44,479............................................3.7
- Hyundai......40,888...........................................3.4
- Jeep............40,098..........................................3.3
- BMW..........40,076............................................3.3
- Lexus..........36,964..........................................3.1
- RAM.............32,675.........................................2.7
- Mazda..........29,443.........................................2.5
- Volkswagen..25,958........................................2.2
- Audi..............24,218.........................................2.0
- GMC.............23,776..........................................2.0
- Dodge..........19,883.........................................1.7
- Acura ...........11,973.........................................1.0
- Land Rover ..10,924.........................................0.9
- Porsche........9,410...........................................0.8
- Volvo.............8,747..........................................0.7
- Chrysler........8,650..........................................0.7
- Infiniti............7,970..........................................0.7
- Cadillac.........7,008..........................................0.6
- Mitsubishi.....5,049..........................................0.4
- Lincoln..........4,527..........................................0.4
- Buick.............4,188..........................................0.3
- Mini...............3,887.........................................0.3
- Jaguar...........3,089.........................................0.3
- Alfa Romeo....2,591........................................0.2
- Genesis.........1,739.........................................0.1
- FIAT................345...........................................0
Total.........................1,199,446 ..................................100
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-20.pdf
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Just to be clear, that 50,100 is YTD through end of September. Q3 registrations were 17,017.
Registrations are down 16% YTD, but Q3 was only down 10.5% y/y. The real damage came in Q2, obviously. The good news is Tesla has broadened their sales footprint and is much less dependent on CA than in the past. It was only a few years ago that CA represented close to half of US sales. Now it looks to be less than 30%.
many were waiting on short-range Y (now discontinued), and 3-row Y. Also not to mention that the Y barely started deliveries just 8 months ago!
Doggydogworld
Active Member
This is registrations, not sales. Tesla is slow to register cars. I back-shift these numbers by a month - so Q3 registrations really represent June-August sales. And since they don't deliver many cars in CA the first two months of the quarter, you can almost back-shift by a full quarter.
You see this in Q1, when they registered 18,856 Model 3s in CA. But Troy estimates they only sold 24k Model 3s in the entire country in Q1. That 18,856 is clearly inflated by the prior December's huge EOY delivery push.
Look at Q1 Model Y. Troy estimates 2.3k Q1 Model Ys in the US. Close to 1k were in CA, but CNCDA shows almost all the 23,250 registrations in Q1 were 3/S/X (18,856 + 1561 + 2826 = 23,243).
Troy estimates 18.1k Model Y sold YTD through June and 27.3k in Q3. Let's say 40% were in CA, so 7.2k through June and 11k in Q3. If 9k of Q3's cars didn't get registered until October, then 7.2k + 2k = 9.2k would show up in the latest CNCDA report. And voila - it shows 9163.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
I am now considering Mazda. I am sure they have great paint. I just don't know what is their range for a full charge, how many superchargers they have, how good is their autopilot, how often I get new features through OTA and if I can watch Netflix in my car.
.. you know what... screw all that. It has flawless paint and that is all that matters and is reflection of great quality. I am selling my Tesla and buying a Mazda.
.. you know what... screw all that. It has flawless paint and that is all that matters and is reflection of great quality. I am selling my Tesla and buying a Mazda.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
That is not how ~98% of Americans pick a car to buy. I am going to buy an electric car,so which EV offers the best overall experience.
The 30%-40% of American car buyers who factor CR Ratings into their car buying decision start by eliminating the bottom 30%-90% of brands/models in the CR reliability ratings.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
California 2020 Total Sales.
I thought this was the year Tesla surpassed Nissan. Maybe this year.
Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share
Total.........................1,639,166 ..................................100
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-20.pdf
I thought this was the year Tesla surpassed Nissan. Maybe this year.
Brand..................CA 2020.................................... % Share
- Toyota........281,391 ...........,..........................17.2
- Honda........188,277.........................................11.5
- Ford...........146,425..........................................8.9
- Chevrolet...127,231..........................................7.8
- Nissan........78,507..........................................4.8
- Tesla.........71,390......................................4.4
- Subaru......68,333............................................4.2
- Merc Benz..64,453..........................................3.9
- KIA.............60,996............................................3.7
- BMW..........56,144............................................3.4
- Hyundai......55,534...........................................3.4
- Jeep............52,647..........................................3.2
- Lexus..........51,793..........................................3.2
- RAM.............43,196.........................................2.6
- Mazda..........39,145.........................................2.4
- Volkswagen..35,576........................................2.2
- Audi..............33,790.........................................2.1
- GMC.............33,172..........................................2.0
- Dodge..........26,073.........................................1.6
- Acura ...........16,321.........................................1.0
- Land Rover ..15,506.........................................0.9
- Porsche........13,121...........................................0.8
- Volvo.............12,291..........................................0.7
- Chrysler........11,113..........................................0.7
- Infiniti............10,154..........................................0.6
- Cadillac.........9,853..........................................0.6
- Lincoln..........6,044..........................................0.4
- Mitsubishi.....5,759..........................................0.4
- Mini...............5,397.........................................0.3
- Buick.............5,319..........................................0.3
- Jaguar...........3,826.........................................0.2
- Alfa Romeo....3,504........................................0.2
- Genesis.........2,289.........................................0.1
- FIAT................387...........................................0
- Other..............3010.........................................0.2
Total.........................1,639,166 ..................................100
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-4Q-20.pdf
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