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VIN Assignment

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Nice chart. Could you elaborate on how you arrived at 2018 delivery so far at 1062 cars? Looking on the chart, the red curve crosses the end of 2017 at ~2500, and the end of the curve in the middle of Jan 2018 seems a little shy of 3500, wouldn't that suggest 2018 delivery so far is a little shy of 1000?


The formula for that curve is derived from the VIN data:

a b c d
0.00518293 -668.87122059 28773167.27843120 -412582559454.56800000
y= ax^3 + bx^2 - cx + d
y=VIN
x=Date

You could magnify the graph and use a caliper, but you would yield the same result from the calculation.
There is a box on the spreadsheet where you can enter your own date and it will calculate VIN delivery for you based on that formula.
 
Looking on the chart, the red curve crosses the end of 2017 at ~2500, and the end of the curve in the middle of Jan 2018 seems a little shy of 3500, wouldn't that suggest 2018 delivery so far is a little shy of 1000?

Hi. VINs are assigned before deliveries. Open this tab for cell references I'm about to mention.

I have calculated that at the end of Dec 2017, the average time from VIN assignment to delivery was ~10 days. See cell DN53.
That means for a car to be delivered in 2017, the VIN had to be assigned by 21 Dec 2017. See cell DN54.
The VIN trendline on 21 Dec 2017 shows 1,949. There were 1,772 Model 3 deliveries at the end of 2017. That means VIN/delivery ratio was 1,949/1,772= 110.0%.

Cars that are delivered today (19 Jan 2018) should have the VIN assigned on 9 Jan 2018. See cell DN62. The VIN trendline shows 3,125 for 9 Jan which means 3,125/110%= 2,842 deliveries until now, minus 1,772 in 2017 and we get 1,070 so far in 2018.

You're missing someone posting vin 47xx.
Thanks. It is fixed now. The chart wasn't displaying it even though the calculations included those as well.
 
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Just in from the Decatur GA location. There were 9 M3s in the 'showroom' all cleaned and preprepped - half the checklist done - with signs saying do not touch...customer vehicle. Plus there were 3 in the delivery bay. So I saw 12. The one guy working in the delivery bay came out to check something and asked me if I needed help. Told him I got my VIN the other day and just came to see one in person. He said they had a lot more on the lot - which I couldn't see - so maybe behind the building. They are not opening doors, or trunks or frunks...strictly look, don't touch.

There were 4 dark silver, 3 red, 3 blue, 1 white, 1 black

VINs ranged from 202X to 368X. mine is 42XX so unless I'm out back I haven't arrived yet. (20xx(b), 27xx(ds), 31xx(w), 35xx(r), 33xx(ds), 29xx(r), 33xx(ds), 36xx(b), 36xx(b) + 3 in the bay I couldn't see VINs on...)

I'm pleased with my choice of blue. I didn't note the interiors of alcantara vs replacement...sorry. Maybe if I go back I can see the break in where they differed.

Aero wheels did not look popular - only 3 cars had them.

They had one parked in front of an S - almost on purpose it seemed to show the difference. You can tell it's shorter. But still looks like a 'Tesla'. I'll work on posting a few pictures.
 
Hi, everybody. VIN processing data shows that changes are imminent. Either Tesla will start to send out invites to non-owners or they will make the standard range version or the AWD version available in the configurator. I think it is 60% likely one of these changes will happen by the end of this month and 90% likely they will happen by 10 February 2018. Why so soon? Because Tesla is aiming to deliver cars within 30 days after invites. Therefore they need to prepare in advance before they reach 100% completion rate for a configuration.

By the way, if you have a VIN and you know the date it was assigned, it would be great if you can add your data to the invites spreadsheet here. However, if some people are trying to help by entering data they saw here, we don't want the data if the VIN assignment date is a guess. Thanks.
 
I guess my friend received one of the Model 3's that was parked in the large parking lot buffer for weeks at the factory since the holidays. It was delivered today (1/20/2018) at the Fremont Delivery Center. It is 198X. I did my duty as a TSLA shareholder and reminded him he forgot to select the $5K autopilot that he has on his 00041X AP 1.0 Model X P90D. :D

I managed to learn pretty much everything about the central control panel while we waited for his paperwork to be revised for more than an hour while sitting in the "showroom mode" Model 3 they have there in the lobby.

Personally, I was invited to configure on 12/08, but I'm waiting for a "P" AWD Model 3 with a non-black interior since black gets really hot when left in the Calif. summer sun. (Anyway, I have a leased Model X P90D 00041X until 3/22/2019. I'm better off driving that at 25 cents a mile when it goes over 30K miles in a few months...)

They delivered 7 Model 3's while we were there from 5 pm onwards - I forgot to check the VINs. (No S or X): There are 14 delivery bays in total. Each vehicle is lit like it's in a jewellery store for the "my new car" photo ops posted on FB.

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