Here is what I know
If you have an invoice with a October 3-5 build date, your car is arriving in Sydney this week (8th), or possibly next Friday (15th). Your car will be delivered 2-6 weeks after arrival after in-country logistics, and if any issues needing fixing.
If your car was built October 11, it will likely have a 2020 vin (L) arriving either next Friday (15th) or Nov (22nd). Same 2-6 week in logistics.
For the vins assigned today, it is still unclear which ship. The October 11 builds were hidden vin assigned before they left the US. If your cars were built yesterday, they will leave the US Sunday, and arrive December 13 and be delivered mostly after Xmas depending on where you are on the east coast. Now the ship may change to earlier, once some invoices get issued and evidence is received. It won’t be later than this date.
No car will want to be undelivered at the end of the US financial year. Tesla are trying to deliver a record 105,000 ish for the quarter to meet an annual target.
My advice is to firmly put your expectations at the end of December for all of you with vins. Last quarter, we had ships in bad weather, a near miss tornado in Auckland, shipping delays, 1500 batteries replaced, damaged cars to fix, chaos with the transporter companies, and extra staff hired at Tesla and detailers. It is less this quarter to be delivered, but it is shaping up as another quarter end rush. For those not on the east coast, hopefully you are in the early October builds.
The next step will be a delivery call, email with rego papers, and invoice, These are a few weeks away if you have not received already.
If you are still hidden vinless by the end of this week, this does not mean you don’t have a car on these ships. Some people just get a delivery call. It could also indicate 2020. But it will mean frustration until one pops up. Some people with reserrvations from 2016 are still waiting.