Website wait times for delivery change

[dirkhh]

Less than 3 weeks left for March, so it could be a forced move that no enough time left to source, produce and deliver a fresh P85D order. I'm monitoring EU and US wait time closely to see when it can be back to at least 3 months wait time.

Historically the top model tends to have a 6-8 week wait time. That time shrinks as the end of the quarter nears - usually down to about 3 weeks, at which point it jumps back up to 6-8 weeks. We've had this with the P85+ for many quarters and we'll now see the same pattern with the P85D I'm sure (this is all talking about the US, of course).

 

[FredTMC]

I'm sure they'll write about increasing wait times...and imply that the reason is production problems.

LOL. For sure...

 

[maoing]

Sorry I meant the wait time other than top model.

Historically the top model tends to have a 6-8 week wait time. That time shrinks as the end of the quarter nears - usually down to about 3 weeks, at which point it jumps back up to 6-8 weeks. We've had this with the P85+ for many quarters and we'll now see the same pattern with the P85D I'm sure (this is all talking about the US, of course).

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Less than 3 weeks left for March, so it could be a forced move that no enough time left to source, produce and deliver a fresh P85D order. I'm monitoring EU and US wait time closely to see when it can be back to at least 3 months wait time.

Thanks for your valuable input, moing.
Several times Tesla Motors stated that they are aiming to reduce waiting times for Model S to a timeframe of 2 to 3 months.
Accepting longer waiting times does not make customers happy waiting too long for their new car.
Honestly I do not know what you are waiting for here?!
Could happen that you are waiting for something that will never happen here!

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks for your valuable input, moing.
Several times Tesla Motors stated that they are aiming to reduce waiting times for Model S to a timeframe of 2 to 3 months.
Accepting longer waiting times does not make customers happy waiting too long for their new car.
Honestly I do not know what you are waiting for here?!
Could happen that you are waiting for something that will never happen here!

Point of correction it was stated previously that the target (at least for NA) was to get around 2 months and later further clarified that he would like to see wait times measured in weeks not months (indicating something maybe closer to the 6-8 week range as opposed to 2+ months)

Your overall point stands, a dropping wait time isn't necessarily a bad demand indicator because it could just be that they are finally playing catch up to the current demand levels. If they need to massage demand a bit to get the numbers up a bit higher then I am sure they will do that. Elon mentioned he has a secret weapon for demand should it become necessary. But we still don't have any traditional advertising happening. When I start seeing ads like: (in your best southern accent... not sure why they are always southern, but they are) "Come on down to your local Tesla dealer 'cause we are havin' a blowout sale for Pa'ddie's Day weekend! This Tesla right here, originally 69,999 now SLASHED to 59,999, and this Tesla 89,999 now SLASHED to 84,999! We take all trade-ins! You drag it in and we'll give you top dollar! No Haggling! Bad Credit? No Problem! Come see what we can do for YOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUU!"

Ahem... sorry... had a moment there.

 

[Robert.Boston]

"Come on down to your local Tesla dealer 'cause we are havin' a blowout sale for Pa'ddie's Day weekend! This Tesla right here, originally 69,999 now SLASHED to 59,999, and this Tesla 89,999 now SLASHED to 84,999! We take all trade-ins! You drag it in and we'll give you top dollar! No Haggling! Bad Credit? No Problem! Come see what we can do for YOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUU!"

Ahem... sorry... had a moment there.

Heh. The day I see Elon Musk in a leprechaun outfit shilling cars is the day I sell all my TSLA. ;-)

 

[maoing]

The reduction of the wait time is assuming the production rate can outpace demand rate, it could happen from 2nd half of 2015. In 1st half of 2015, guided 40% of 55K delivery, so 22K delivery in span of 26 weeks, excluding factory shut down for several week, the production rate is barely the same level with Q4 2014. Without production ramp up, how comes the wait time reduced? Before I get confirmation that TM's wait time back to normal (3 months in Q4), I would hesitate to buy more even at this bargin price level. One of the most important fundamentals is the "strong" demand, I have little bit doubt now.

Thanks for your valuable input, moing.
Several times Tesla Motors stated that they are aiming to reduce waiting times for Model S to a timeframe of 2 to 3 months.
Accepting longer waiting times does not make customers happy waiting too long for their new car.
Honestly I do not know what you are waiting for here?!
Could happen that you are waiting for something that will never happen here!

 

[Hogfighter]

Maoing, demand isn't quite that simple. Demand tends to increase as wait times diminish.

 

[maoing]

Hog, you are talking about potential demand. Yes shorter wait time might generate larger potential demand. But the official demand to TM is the ones made the order and will be reflected in current wait time. I can't exclude the possibility that wait time will jump in next a few weeks due to shorter wait time at this point.

Maoing, demand isn't quite that simple. Demand tends to increase as wait times diminish.

 

[vgrinshpun]

As of yesterday, two weeks after the previous update, there was a change to the P85D Delivery time in NA - from late March to late April.

There was also a likely website mistake that was fixed for Netherlands - 85D delivery was changed from May to late June, in line with all other European countries.

 

[sundaymorning]

Point of correction it was stated previously that the target (at least for NA) was to get around 2 months and later further clarified that he would like to see wait times measured in weeks not months (indicating something maybe closer to the 6-8 week range as opposed to 2+ months)

Your overall point stands, a dropping wait time isn't necessarily a bad demand indicator because it could just be that they are finally playing catch up to the current demand levels. If they need to massage demand a bit to get the numbers up a bit higher then I am sure they will do that. Elon mentioned he has a secret weapon for demand should it become necessary. But we still don't have any traditional advertising happening. When I start seeing ads like: (in your best southern accent... not sure why they are always southern, but they are) "Come on down to your local Tesla dealer 'cause we are havin' a blowout sale for Pa'ddie's Day weekend! This Tesla right here, originally 69,999 now SLASHED to 59,999, and this Tesla 89,999 now SLASHED to 84,999! We take all trade-ins! You drag it in and we'll give you top dollar! No Haggling! Bad Credit? No Problem! Come see what we can do for YOOOOOOOOOUUUUUUU!"

Ahem... sorry... had a moment there.

hahah funny,

A long time ago I was told that "statistics don't lie, liars use statistics..." this quote insinuates that it's pointless talking to bears about the "demand" issue. Any statistics can be used to argue for the bears/bulls case. A pointless conversation that has no real factual number to prove other than "I think it's down because.." Or "I think it's up because..."

My my money has it that bears are spinning and lying through their teeth.

 

[dirkhh]

And the typical end of quarter shenanigans show how useless it is (in the end) to base your analysis on the web site wait times.
Surprise, surprise, apparently most promised April deliveries in Europe have now been pushed to late May and instead high price US cars have been aggressively pulled in to March.
OMG, the world is ending! Demand in the US is cratering, you can get a car in just three weeks! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Hurray! Celebrations, demand in Europe is skyrocketing, deliveries are pushed out by more than a month! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Sorry, got carried away there for a second.

 

[Auzie]

And the typical end of quarter shenanigans show how useless it is (in the end) to base your analysis on the web site wait times.
Surprise, surprise, apparently most promised April deliveries in Europe have now been pushed to late May and instead high price US cars have been aggressively pulled in to March.
OMG, the world is ending! Demand in the US is cratering, you can get a car in just three weeks! Sell! Sell! Sell!
Hurray! Celebrations, demand in Europe is skyrocketing, deliveries are pushed out by more than a month! Buy! Buy! Buy!

Sorry, got carried away there for a second.

:biggrin:

I never expected so much entertainment with this investment

What a bonus

Agree that some metrics are less useful than others

I hope Tesla refocuses from exporting and focuses on selling as much as they can in US. Now may be the time to pull all the demand levers in US and saturate the market.

The other markets can wait for better exchange rates and for model 3, maybe X. Model S may not be the best car for some non US markets.

 

[maoing]

EU countries (except UK) P85D moved to late June today, S85D stays on late June, 60/85 still in May.

China stays in May for all models.

US stays in May for all models except P85D.

 

[pGo]

P85D for US moved to May.

 

[dirkhh]

P85D for US moved to May.

And anyone who buys right now will get a notice in about 4 weeks that their delivery slipped to June.
Because they need the production slots in April and early May for international cars to be shipped and delivered this quarter.

(that's what happened to quite a few people in the US who ordered late Dec / early Jan - of course except they weren't given that explanation...)

 

[dennis]

P85D for US moved to May.

Bulls - They've now got enough orders to make the Q1 number

Bears - It's too late to build and deliver any new US orders for Q1, even for local delivery

 

[dirkhh]

P85D for US moved to May.

Bulls - They've now got enough orders to make the Q1 number

Bears - It's too late to build and deliver any new US orders for Q1, even for local delivery

Well this one is obvious. There's no way to possibly take another order and produce and deliver the car in Q2.
But as I mentioned before. This is not a new thing.

 

[vgrinshpun]

The updated table of global deliveries indicate the following changes:

• US and Canada - P85D changed from Late April (as of 9 days ago) to May
• GB - 85D and P85D moved up from September to August
• Europe - 60 and 85 changed from May (as of 49 days ago) to June
• China - 60, 85085D and P85D changed from May (as of 23 days ago) to June
  BTW, as Maoing posted in the China Market Situation and Outlook thread, Elon will be in China next week.

 

[pGo]

Vgrin, based on your number crunching, what do you think about current US demand based on May estimate in the last week of March? US has been the lions share (over 50% of deliveries) so far.

Also, do you think TM is moving dates a bit slowly based on 12.5K assumption for Q2 expectation? Thanks.