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Website wait times for delivery change

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Bulls - They've now got enough orders to make the Q1 number

Bears - It's too late to build and deliver any new US orders for Q1, even for local delivery

Not following the logic here, Q1 has been closed since the middle of March. April is Q2 so they have filled the first month totally for April and are working steady on May. However if the info is true that US isn't actually getting anymore in May for oversea allocation, then we are essentially back to just filling in June which keeps things at their normal 2-3 months.
 
No, it stays at May for a while. Next week, I hope US delivery time can be dialed to June, otherwise one month wait time doesn't make sense even for home market.

The reason it does not change is that almost all (near 100%) of current production is being delivered to NA so it can be counted in Q1, while the incoming rate of orders stays the same (about of 55% of all incoming orders per the latest from TM). Once TM is back to more normal allocation between the markets in April, I expect this wait time to change (within first week of April)
 
I surely hope US wait time can be dialed to June next week. Otherwise, it's even risky to play Q1 ER beat.

The reason it does not change is that almost all (near 100%) of current production is being delivered to NA so it can be counted in Q1, while the incoming rate of orders stays the same (about of 55% of all incoming orders per the latest from TM). Once TM is back to more normal allocation between the markets in April, I expect this wait time to change (within first week of April)
 
I surely hope US wait time can be dialed to June next week. Otherwise, it's even risky to play Q1 ER beat.

I do not get this logic - it looks like they have enough orders right now to cover almost all of Q2. Because of this the fact whether they update the NA delivery time during first week of April or the last one has no bearing on whether they beat Q1 or not. Did I misunderstand what you were saying?
 
Geez I'm so used to the backlog being deeper I somehow thought it was moved back to May. Oh well, part of that thinking is that there are a lot of people on the delivery threads who were pulled forward into April so it seems production is pickup up the pace. However, having a 4-6 week backlog I suppose you could argue it either way. We'll wait for the Q2 report then. As far as I'm concerned shorter backlog is better though being that Tesla has had so many issues with production and production issues are what a long backlog has indicated to date. We all got excited about Q3 having a longer backlog but see where that got us?
 
No, we don't. US market takes 55% in 2014 and it could be more % in 2015 with strong dollar (low GM in EU) and virtually very low demand from China (digesting inventory still). How come you can assume Q2 production is almost booked while US wait time is still in May. My guess it's probably only 50% booked with existing information. If US wait time can move to June in beginning of April, then it could be a good evidence that 70% of Q2 production has been booked. Sorry, I'm a little bit conservative here.

I do not get this logic - it looks like they have enough orders right now to cover almost all of Q2. Because of this the fact whether they update the NA delivery time during first week of April or the last one has no bearing on whether they beat Q1 or not. Did I misunderstand what you were saying?
 
No, we don't. US market takes 55% in 2014 and it could be more % in 2015 with strong dollar (low GM in EU) and virtually very low demand from China (digesting inventory still). How come you can assume Q2 production is almost booked while US wait time is still in May. My guess it's probably only 50% booked with existing information. If US wait time can move to June in beginning of April, then it could be a good evidence that 70% of Q2 production has been booked. Sorry, I'm a little bit conservative here.

In your previous post you indicated: "I surely hope US wait time can be dialed to June next week. Otherwise, it's even risky to play Q1 ER beat."

My point was that US wait time change to June has no bearing on Q1 beat - it will be an indication of the rate of incoming reservations in Q2.

Regarding the percentage of deliveries in US in 2015, this is pure speculation, and your guess might be as good (or bad) as mine.

I personally think that US percentage will actually go down, because demand in Europe and China will be improving. My feeling that out of 55K cars about 20K to 25K (MS and MX) will be delivered in US. So US deliveries are likely to make 36% to 45% of total.
 
Tesla continues to open more stores, rolls out more superchargers, allowed to enter new states, has more market exposure over time, user experience continues to improve, consumer report ratings continue to rock, still does not advertise, and yet demand is a huge problem for bears smh.

There's about 25,000 Model X on order, factoring in 4,000 cancellations and there's 21,000 anxious customers waiting for their vehicle. If this is weak demand due to Tesla's poor brand image and declining customer satisfaction I wonder just how Tesla will do when customers are satisfied?

Reshuffling timeframe is anyone's guess contingent on Tesla's ability to ramp up production and overseas delegation of the D and higher end model. No one knows the exact Chinese numbers except Tesla, no one can say for certainty if demand has been increasing in China except Elon. Oh wait, he's already stated that demand has steadily increased in that market. Sales in Germany continues to improve, Norway looks strong. As always do your research, examine your exposure and be confident in your decisions up or down. If you have to ask, then it's time to wind down your risk exposure.

If you want to de-risk in times of uncertainty, convert your options to 2017, buy deep in the money or get out of options altogether and start buying up shares. There's a reason why options buyer are nicked "a suckers bet". It's tough enough trying to figure out up or down, but when you throw in a specific "timeframe" vs "time-decay" the bet becomes several folds more difficult, especially when it's only 3-4 months out. This isn't investing, it's gambling, speculation and greed. In the absence of news/rumor, you stand to lose your money 50% of the time on short term plays, once those plays are done, you're out of time. While longs can be wrong 4/5 times, yet come out on top in he end. That's the difference between investing and gambling. Short term bets should only be done with money one can afford to throw away.
 
To follow-up on Uselesslogin and Maoing posts, I went through my routine of checking the delivery time on all local websites. The summary of changes:
  • NA deliveries for all variants went from May to Late May
  • GB deliveries for 60, 85 changed from Late May to June, 85D and P85D - from August to September
  • Australia deliveries for 85D and P85D changed from September to October
  • Japan 85D and P85D deliveries changed from August to September. TM started listing the expected delivery for 60 and 85 - June
  • Honk Kong 85D and P85D deliveries changed from August/June to September. TM started listing the expected delivery for 60 and 85 - Late May

Wait Time 04-06-2015.png
 
To follow-up on Uselesslogin and Maoing posts, I went through my routine of checking the delivery time on all local websites. The summary of changes:
  • NA deliveries for all variants went from May to Late May
And I'd bet that quite a few of those will magically move to June (even the ones ordered now)
  • GB deliveries for 60, 85 changed from Late May to June, 85D and P85D - from August to September
I was wondering about August... that seemed unusual... the problem is of course that the new plates come in October, so people might not want to take possession in late September from what I understand?
  • Australia deliveries for 85D and P85D changed from September to October
Wow, that pushes them into Q4. Rather surprising.
Maybe I'm just to cynical on these dates... but the last six quarters seemed to mostly follow very predictable patterns...
 
The first tell tale signs of Model X production starting up will be bigger than usual jumps in model S delivery estimates. First opportunity to spot these will happen very soon when Europe or US estimates jump over to the third quarter.

A separate line for Model X will make sure Model S estimates won't have huge impact. There could be some people moving from being a potential S customer to X customer (with a 6 months+ wait initially - the reverse happened when D was announced).
 
A separate line for Model X will make sure Model S estimates won't have huge impact. There could be some people moving from being a potential S customer to X customer (with a 6 months+ wait initially - the reverse happened when D was announced).

It isn't a wholly second line though. Just the BIW is supposed to be a full second line (as far as I am aware) which means that Final Assembly people will be doing a bunch of MS then a bunch of MX and then back again. Very likely they will batch orders together, so maybe 1 day run X and 1 day run S? Or a couple hours here and then a couple hours there. I suppose they could make it every other car is whatever happens to be coming down the line, but that seems like it would get confusing and slow things down.

In any case, I don't expect any of that to start to impact delivery times until mid to end of Q3 (as far as estimated delivery dates.) So if you are currently being told Q2, the worst that I think might happen is a small slip by a week or two. If you have an August or September date then you might want to just prep yourself ahead of time that those orders will see decent delays across the board. I hope it doesn't happen, and the company says it shouldn't happen... but based on their track record and what we know of the factory layout and operations, I wouldn't be surprised to see some amount of slippage because of bringing the X online.
 
It isn't a wholly second line though. Just the BIW is supposed to be a full second line (as far as I am aware) which means that Final Assembly people will be doing a bunch of MS then a bunch of MX and then back again.
Where did you find that information? My understanding was that Tesla expected no slow down in Model S delivery from adding Model X delivery.