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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
July is a first month of the quarter. Traditionally production is oriented towards overseas areas which means relatively little production (and delivery) for the US. Average wait time contracts a bit as the quarter draws near to expand again once production planning crossed over to the next quarter. While Tesla announced it wanted to move away from a strong quarterly focus, I don't think they've completely left that behind since this quarter fits the same pattern (see also the delivery numbers in Europe). Overall, we are still with the 2 month average delay we've been on now for nearly half a year.
It is kind of an estimate. A variety of people have said that they were given late June delivery estimates and took delivery 1-2 weeks earlier than originally stated. breser's spreadsheet shows that. Especially CA buyers. One CA and one WA buyer I saw both said late-June estimate and received 6/3 and 6/4. Meanwhile, some Euro and even Canada orders which said May estimates received in June. I have to think that Canadian, European and RHD cars were pushed back somewhat to try to really do well in the states. If a plant idle is coming in July for a week, this would be one reason to show August as an estimate - and so would the new use of trains for east coast. Those who got "trained" can attest to 3-4 week travel times. Unless you gave the state you resided in, all US-estimates are August but I'm sure some will get them in July.
Wow, that didn't take long to blow through the August delivery dates. Excellent news, seeing the backlog get deeper globally.
My question kind of is still floating about. Is there a short shutdown in July for rest/retooling/ModelX training? There was a financial item today that mentioned "buses of people getting training for the line". It also mentions the "Model X line" - however, the "high speed line" is supposed to intermix cars on one line as it was prepared last summer. Has any other new line configuration been setup that hasn't been talked about?
You might be confusing general assembly line that was upgraded last summer with the body assembly line which was just completed and is now being tested. There are currently two body assembly lines: old one that is producing MS body in white, and new more efficient line designed to produce in excess of 2,500 cars per week using two shifts, 5 days a week operation.
The he overall plan with these two body assembly lines is to continue producing MS at the existing body line for some time, while new body line is tested out, MX production starts, and then ramped up. At that point production of the MS body will be blended into the new line, while space occupied by existing line will be re-used for Model III production
The Model X production should not impact production of Model S. It was discussed in detail during the ER calls. The general assembly line is capable to handle 2500-3000 cars a week, both S and X.
The body production of MX will be done using new BIW line which is completely separate from the existing BIW line which will continue to produce MS until MX ramp up is complete.
The realities of a car factory are different, though. A production line's throughput depends not just on the presence of the machines but also on key personnel that can step in when something unforeseen happens (there is a constant trickle of small issues like a tool breaking, a sensor failing, etc..) and fix it before the buffers run over and the whole line needs to slow down. In my experience there is always a shortage of these kind of guys and they are not easily replaced or hired since so much depends on actual experience. Ramping a line up is a typical product of that learning process. Since Tesla wants to ramp up aggressively on the new line it seems plausible they are putting some of their best operations guy at work there.
2 questions:
1) could you draw a dumb box diagram that shows the different assembly areas you are describing, with (if known) the approximate throughput? I feel like you are always trying to explain what might be better done in a drawing? This is selfish because I would love to see it
2) Are you keeping historical data on the website changes? We could extract a kind of meta-statistic, the average quote time, over time. If you want to send me the raw data/screen caps I can try to put it together.
chickensevil
Active Member
I believe this is what you are looking for. The important one you are seeking is the Model S/X Body Center. I think it would also help to know what is in the other gaps on the floor plans there where the other things fit into place, but if I am not mistaken the old assembly line was basically inbetween the new assembly line and the new body center and made a much more zig-zag pattern. I swear I had need a map of it somewhere and just can't find it. In any case, hopefully this helps. I think what vgrinshpun is referencing for the speeds of the lines is just pulling from memory the various tidbits of data that the company has said themselves as they have talked about the factory over the years. It would actually be useful to keep a spreadsheet of a sorts of the various parts of the factory and every time they make a comment about the speed of one part we can update it with the date the comment was made and a link to the reference where and who said it.
Edit: This is screen grabs from the 2014 presentation at TMC connect by Diarmuid O'Connell.
Diarmuid OConnell - Keynote at TMC Connect 2014 - YouTube
Edit: This is screen grabs from the 2014 presentation at TMC connect by Diarmuid O'Connell.
Diarmuid OConnell - Keynote at TMC Connect 2014 - YouTube
Gerasimental
Member
Absolutely agreed! I've been irritated for a while by the opacity of production capabilities. Of course it's not Tesla's job to give full transparency, but we have some very useful tools on the demand side (country level month delivery numbers, this thread, qualitative datapoints from members, etc) and it would great to have this on the production side too.
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