-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
- Start date
-
- Tags
- TSLA
dc_h
Active Member
Gerardf
Active Member
Perfectlogic, clearly as pGo was mentioning this is a positive sign.
I was trying. But it is very hard NOT to see how you are making an effort to find something negative (or at least not positive) in any development and every newsflash about Tesla. I see you doing the same in many threads on this forum and on several different subject ?. Even when people explain it is good news, you are very quick to come up with just another excuse to make it look bad (or at east less good).
Why is that ? To me it is starting to 'feel' like you have some anger.
You told me you do not own any TSLA and SCTY shares or options.
I was trying. But it is very hard NOT to see how you are making an effort to find something negative (or at least not positive) in any development and every newsflash about Tesla. I see you doing the same in many threads on this forum and on several different subject ?. Even when people explain it is good news, you are very quick to come up with just another excuse to make it look bad (or at east less good).
Why is that ? To me it is starting to 'feel' like you have some anger.
You told me you do not own any TSLA and SCTY shares or options.
Perfectlogic
Member
Perfectlogic
Member
People here are overly bullish, that is what I'm trying to correct by balancing the discussion.
Not always no, they seemed to stop doing it around a year ago. But looking at the graph it seems that lately they have picked it up again.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Actually most people here aren't.
Thanks for the concern, but you aren't really balancing anything, you're just adding noise.
It is not. The increase in NA wait time in this quarter started on 5/19.
At exactly the same point in Q1, on 2/19, the wait time was decreasing, not increasing (and did not start increasing until after the end of Q1 - 13/02 - almost two weeks later than 2/19).
The wait time at the same point in Q4 2015, on 11/19 was also decreasing, not increasing (and did not start increasing until after the end of Q4 - 12/12 - almost 3.5 weeks later than 11/19)
My apologies, apparently facts are "overly bullish" - we are in dire need to balance them using perfect logic...
Attachments
Perfectlogic
Member
Then what do you call all the guys expecting a major short squeeze and doubling of the stock short to mid term for the past 2 years while the stock has been flat? Saying TSLA will be worth $1T in 10 years (which 99% of professional investors would say is extremely unlikely) will get you 10 likes here, saying you think there is a large risk that the stock could go down to $120 within a year will get you 10 dislikes and 10 guys calling you a shill. Everyone outside this forum would call it a place for hyper bulls.
Perfectlogic
Member
For the peaks to happen at slightly different times doesn't prove anything. If the peak was much higher than usual you would have a reason to be overly bullish.
It actually does. The increase in wait time during this quarter happened at the time when close to 100% of production capability was allocated to NA cars. The backlog during this time is being depleted at about twice the normal rate (about 52% of all cars are being delivered in NA). This means that the rate of incoming orders overwhelmed the 2x nominal rate of the depleting backlog.
In previous quarters the wait time did not start to increase until after the end of the quarter when production allocation already switched over from NA cars to the cars slated for overseas deliveries. This means that rate of incoming orders was less than the rate at which backlog was being depleted at the end of previous quarters.
Last edited:
Perfectlogic
Member
Whether Tesla produces cars for NA in the first week of a quarter (which would delay the NA peak) and then depletes the international backlog in the next 5 or so weeks doesn't really make a difference compared to starting international production straight away in a quarter or the week before the previous ends. As long as the the last cars are shipped to EU 6 weeks into the quarter or whatever the shipping time is. What this earlier than normal timing of when Tesla starts producing cars for international suggests is that international demand is now a larger part of the mix that it was a year ago.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There have always been some overly bullish on Tesla here on the boards. I'd call focusing on those few and claiming they represent the entirety of the forum and need "balancing" to be misleading at best.
Perfectlogic
Member
Sure, "some".
Edit: Didn't even have to go further than 40 min back in the short term thread to find this, with 6 likes no less:
"I was unhappy with Elon when he announced the SCTY deal. But when I asked myself why, it was because the SP went down. Had the market applauded and had the SP gone up, I would have been cheering and calling Elon a genius instead of doubting him. As others have said, Elon knows far more about SCTY than we do. If he thinks it can take Tesla from a $700 Billion company to a $1 Trillion company, then I have to trust him. Lord knows I can't wait to make so much money on TSLA that I can retire EARLY!"
Had this been posted anywhere else it would have recieved 6 laughs instead.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
People have been "laughing" at Tesla since the beginning. Many of us have been making money on their ignorance. I expect that to continue.
Perfectlogic
Member
There are always some naysayers, sure the bulls were right up untill early 2014, thats a given. But just as much as that is true, in the past 2 years the bulls (who tend to be extremely bullish) have been wrong. Many here doesn't acknowledge that last part though, it is obviously just bears manipulating the SP and the market being stupid. Everyone would gain if the forum was a bit more realistic.
Gerardf
Active Member
Well, why do you not concentrate on replying to such posters and the extreme posts only ? And of that specific post only a part is of the 'overly enthousiastic' type. Other part is a quote from Elon, that should not be taken out of context to fully understand.
I see you having many-page long discussion about relatively minor things with very balanced posters.. and on many of the investor threads. And vitually always from a negative angle.
Just take your last posts on this thread. IMHO vgrinshpun and JRP3 are very knowlegdeable balanced posters that I learned a lot from and that I highly appriciate for the info they share at this forum. I am getting the impression you argue with them for the sake of arguing, not to add or improve on that info. And to my opinion on this forum they are not the exception, in fact I feel we have a majority of balanced and knowledgeble posters, specially in the investor section.
Recently there are some new posters that can get overly enthousiastic. I have however also seen they get some replies to moderate them a bit. However this is then done without overshooting to the other side by negatively biased nitpicking every detail as (IMHO) you do. In fact, your type of post and all the noise you add might be scaring away some of the better posters. So if that is your goal you might be having some limited succes.
In case you realy want to do good to investors (as you claim) you are counterproductive. One could even defend you are making things worse.
Last edited:
I agree, taken together with the last update of NA it's a run ahead we haven't seen in a while. It's hard to conclude differently than that 60kWh demand is really kicking in.
EDIT: The only other scenario would be an extended planned downtime of the factory to anticipate production growth wrt Model 3. But that's very implausible because, for example, we'd have heard of it in the last conference call, in my opinion.
Last edited:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
There have been short term trading opportunities along the way, for bears and bulls, but just because the stock is not currently at an ATH does not mean the bulls have been wrong at all in the long term. I usually ignore those who are unrealistically bullish along with those who are excessively bearish, but because of everything I know about the company and the technology my overall position on the company is a long term bull.
Perfectlogic
Member
I'm not saying the bulls have been wrong since inception. I am saying the ones (many of which you find here) who are calling for double or even much more in the short to mid term has been completely wrong for 2 years now. Which makes their confidence pretty rediculous. Clearly the bears have also been wrong in the past 2 years, people in general have a way too polarized view on Tesla imo, personally I have come to be more neutral on the stock, short term bearish but longer term neutral, perhaps slightly bearish especially after recent events.
@Gerardf
You are repeating yourself. You have made it very clear that you don't think I am contributing, I don't think you are either, are you going to stop posting now? Perhaps we can work out a deal on how much you are allowed to post.
Similar threads
