Website wait times for delivery change

[Gerardf]

You are repeating yourself. You have made it very clear that you don't think I am contributing, I don't think you are either, are you going to stop posting now? Perhaps we can work out a deal on how much you are allowed to post.

Well, as far as you interested in my opinion about you. I agree with one of the other posters. You are trolling, and probably even enjoying it.

And in case you do not see it that way yourself, maybe you even honestly think you are doing this forum and some posters on it a favour with all your negative nitpicking.. Sorry, in that case you are in denail.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Well, as far as you interested in my opinion about you. I agree with one of the other posters. You are trolling, and probably even enjoying it.

And in case you do not see it that way yourself, maybe you even honestly think you are doing this forum and some posters on it a favour with all your negative nitpicking.. Sorry, in that case you are in denail.

Please look up the definition of nitpicking, just some friendly advice.

 

[Gerardf]

Please look up the definition of nitpicking, just some friendly advice.

See, you even look for the smallest things in my way of expressing myself to have just one more thing to argue about. You simply could not resist, could't you ?

English is not my first langauage, so maybe I do not express myself perfectly. Would you mind to continue in Dutch instead ?

.....
Nope, didn't think so. . On top of that you very well understand what I am trying to say.

You keep arguing for the sake of arguing, guess you have pleasure in that.

Enjoy, Keep trolling, I will no longer respond and give you more opportunities to derail just one more thread.
In fact I am going to request moderation to move all this to snippyness.

 

[schonelucht]

I'm happy to see my predictions from the whole demand discussion last month was completely on point. Like I said Tesla would have to do pull out any aces they may have had in their sleeve and lo and behold perhaps the largest push for demand we have seen so far with both the $1000 discount and reinstating the 60 kwh model. Their chances of meeting the low end of guidance certainly went up significantly, but it also means lower margins for longer. I think it is pretty safe to assume Tesla didn't think they would have been able to meet guidance without the 60, otherwise it wouldn't make sense to introduce a lower cost lower margin product.

A sad day when even PerfectLogic's prediction turned out too optimistic.

 

[Perfectlogic]

A sad day when even PerfectLogic's prediction turned out too optimistic.

Didn't you read the main thread? If you add the 5k in transit it was actually a beat!

On a serious note I don't think anyone expected that large of a miss, just wow. I don't know how it is possible to miss a guidance set so recently by this much without being able to point to a fire breaking out or some accident happening that caused the miss. The very high investor confidence in Elon has been holding the stock up for a long time, but with stuff like this that just keeps happening I wonder how long that will hold. I am actually surprised it has held up this long. Getting more and more confident we will retest the old $120 fire scare level within 6-12 months.

 

[bonaire]

P.L., could they not have at least determined that the guidance was at risk during Q1 ER Q*A call? Were they "still signed up" for a guidance reach of 17,000 for Q2 during the May 5th call? It doesn't make 100% sense. I think if they felt it would be more like 16,000 then even that was not worth announcing on May 5th. It seems they held back material information through the rest of the quarter. Most companies "pre-announce" with a 10% guidance miss. Logistics are sound and you know when cars produced should be delivered. They have lost two leaders in Production in the last quarter - is it time to lose someone in the logistics area this time around and replace with someone else who can do scheduling better?

 

[anon]

P.L., could they not have at least determined that the guidance was at risk during Q1 ER Q*A call? Were they "still signed up" for a guidance reach of 17,000 for Q2 during the May 5th call? It doesn't make 100% sense. I think if the felt it would be more like 16,000 then even that was not worth announcing on May 5th. It seems they held back material information through the rest of the quarter.

It does seem like that at first, but it is also possible that they simply had more problems than expected - they had only just achieved the first flawless X prior to the earning report, so perhaps they did not try to fully ramp and integrate the S and X production lines until after that. There could have been unanticipated problems that stalled production for a few days. At the current almost 2000/week level, just 1 week of problems could be responsible for a big miss.

 

[bonaire]

It does seem like that at first, but it is also possible that they simply had more problems than expected - they had only just achieved the first flawless X prior to the earning report, so perhaps they did not try to fully ramp and integrate the S and X production lines until after that. There could have been unanticipated problems that stalled production for a few days. At the current almost 2000/week level, just 1 week of problems could be responsible for a big miss.

Sure, and possibly true, and maybe. However, when does the world start to view a company as a company in that they may have limited demand and they seem to be reaching a steady state of orders vs. deliveries and the remainder of that produced is simply overflow to keep the lines moving at the 2000/week rate. I expect to see a burst of more Inventory cars available for sale soon in both Europe and USA. This is due to me seeing a lot of newly-arrived inventory and loaners at the Tesla store down the street from me which are not yet up on the inventory web sites or ev-cpo.com. It does look like these came in before customer orders. Customers are paid-for reservations and are a sale "for sure". Inventory on the lot can be sold immediately or even discounted on the spot by an active sales associate later in Q3. A full lot of inventory cars still doesn't solve the problem of not meeting sales guidance that the CEO "signed his name on" last quarter. I wouldn't link that directly to anything other than a business structure that had some problems figuring out how to meet the same sales numbers done in Q4 2015 which may have already had inventory on lots in China that they could discount and move.

 

[Perfectlogic]

P.L., could they not have at least determined that the guidance was at risk during Q1 ER Q*A call? Were they "still signed up" for a guidance reach of 17,000 for Q2 during the May 5th call? It doesn't make 100% sense. I think if they felt it would be more like 16,000 then even that was not worth announcing on May 5th. It seems they held back material information through the rest of the quarter. Most companies "pre-announce" with a 10% guidance miss. Logistics are sound and you know when cars produced should be delivered. They have lost two leaders in Production in the last quarter - is it time to lose someone in the logistics area this time around and replace with someone else who can do scheduling better?

I assume they issued the guidance during the Q1 earnings call which does seem very peculiar indeed when you also take into account what they said in the delivery statement today "almost half of the quarter's production occurred in the final four weeks". The earnings call happened 5 weeks into the quarter, it is kinda hard to believe they didn't know that the guidance was extremely optimistic. Then they did their equity raise 2 weeks after, I wonder why they went with an optimistic guidance.

Not sure how much of the fault lies with the guys in production or logistics, perhaps Elon should just start being more conservative in his predictions.

 

[schonelucht]

European delivery for Model X is now end of October. I don't dare to speculate anymore if this is due to production issues or a sufficiently large backlog.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Thank you, Schonelucht - I've been behind updating my tables, but I continue to monitor the changes to the estimated delivery time. In addition to the Model X changes there were few updates that I did not have a chance to add to the tables yet.
7/9/2016 - China MS estimated delivery time changed to Late September, MX -(75D) estimated delivery of October was added
7/19/2016 - MS estimated delivery changed for Australia, China, Hong Kong and Japan; MX for GB and China
7/24/2016 - estimated delivery for MS in GB moved out to Late october, MX - to February

I should be able to catch up during the coming week.

 

[Spidy]

Europe seems to be everything late October now.

 

[schonelucht]

They skipped end-of-September and regular October completely. Seems like they are going for an extreme end-of-quarter push focused on NA. They surely don't want to repeat this quarter with a heavy overhang in transport and a consequently big guidance miss.

 

[Spidy]

It pretty similar to what they did Q1. And just a few days earlier than Q2. Wouldn't be surprised if weekends and ship schedules have some influence there.

 

[cluster]

MX now shows late 2016.
MS google spreadsheet started to show late Sep to early Oct delivery.

My observations of the MS google spreadsheet:
(1) incoming orders are steady and strong since the reintroduction of 60, pointing to >300 entries for this quarter assuming the same entry rate. >300 would be the highest for a quarter.
(2) July delivery numbers are much higher in this quarter than any other first month.

 

[schonelucht]

@cluster you need to click through to the second page for (what we assume) is the real earliest available delivery. That still shows Late Sept for the MX. The google spreadsheet is a bit difficult to estimate earliest available deliveries from. People see wildly varying dates there sometimes suddenly increasing by a few weeks, then retracting again, the increasing again. Etc.

There is no doubt that incoming order rate for the S is holding up very well. If you'd like to explore this more, there is a specific thread on the subject. We could use more independent eyeballs on the data.

 

[schonelucht]

@TMSE reports that China wait time is now November. Europe still seems end of October and the US September.

 

[W84M3]

Europe is now November 2016 for Model S and start of 2017 for Model X....

 

[schonelucht]

Thanks for the report. But next time, please do click through to the next screen for the real earliest available delivery. For the Model X that's End of November instead of 2017!

 

[Mario Kadastik]

The real issue is that for Model X you should select 6 seater to see an actual earliest date. If you do it's late November.