mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Remind me why we think there is increased production? The switch over to the faster line could be taking more time than expected and all wait times were pushed back because of this?
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Website wait times for delivery change
- Thread starter Chickenlittle
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chickensevil
Active Member
If you look over this thread we have been tracking the shift since May. The only big jump was at the start where the times were pushed back from around a two month wait for an 85 to 4 months. We have held the four month wait now going on 2 almost 3 months, and are only just now actually seeing the shutdown happen.
Now that being said it was claimed by others the the sudden two month jump was because of the planned shutdown and they were being "conservative" with the wait times... Now you are suggesting that the continued 4 month wait is from it possibly taking longer than expected.
They were not shutting the factory down nearly that long to create a two month backlog, and with the startup being a higher run rate that would also alleviate some of that affect. To add, the shutdown was planned long ago for two weeks, and we are just now starting week two of that shutdown... So it is a bit premature to try to suggest that it is taking longer than expected.
While I think the shutdown likely added to some of the delay (I'll be nice and give 1 month of it to that), there is no way at this point it would still be affecting that wait time... We are talking November... That is 4 months away... At a previous run rate of 700 a week, at the most this shifted 1400 cars... At a new run of 1000 it would take only 2.5 weeks to be back "on schedule" not two months...
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I could have sworn I heard it more clearly than that from somewhere, but don't have an immediate source, so if I am wrong, I will admit to that. Based on their target of 35000 model s by the end of the year and with only an estimated 13-14k so far, they have to pull out a rather large amount starting this quarter to meet that, and losing two weeks doesn't help. They also were supposed to have cleared up a major supply bottleneck starting this quarter in order to allow more to be made. If we do t see 1000 it will have to be pretty close. With 26 weeks in the second half, two of which were out of the running (shutdown) and ~3 at a run of 700 (2100) that leaves 19000 to spread across 21 weeks remaining and keep in mind some cars are not sold but used for other purposes... So worst case 19k by 21 weeks is a 905 run rate average through the end of the year. If any cars are not sold (to be used for other things) that forces the run rate to be higher, and if they have to shutdown for planned maintenance again (if I am not mistaken they do one week out of the quarter anyway) then that forces the run rate to need to be higher again. 1000 only makes sense at this point just to meet guidance (never mind the prospect of beating it.)
Vger
Active Member
All very reasonable. However, I think they may have sandbagged a bit on the new production capacity. Perhaps we will see it max out at 1100 or 1200 a week by fall. They have never missed a declared number, even though some smaller things have been maddeningly delayed. So I would bet that there is a little cushion in that 1000/week number, and I bet they plan to exceed the 35,000 number also.
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This same friend actually got moved up to tomorrow. We are delivering them to their delivery in Vancouver. So his car must have been one of the last built before the shutdown.
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This same friend actually got moved up to tomorrow. We are delivering them to their delivery in Vancouver. So his car must have been one of the last built before the shutdown.
chickensevil
Active Member
Oh, dont get me wrong Vger I am totally more optimistic about it myself, I was just trying to present what I thought was the bare minimum at this point just to hit their targets which in turn pretty much confirms a 1000 a week run rate. I too am hoping for a higher number because I have a bet in the prediction thread for around 38000 if I recall. 
I so want to be right about that!
I just try to give data in what I see as a worst case scenario because I like to live by, wish for the best plan for the worst, that way you are never disappointed!
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PS I said 38000 before we had even been given the 35000 number. So was rather pleased with that.
PPS congrats to your friend, I am glad he didn't have to wait until August!
I so want to be right about that!I just try to give data in what I see as a worst case scenario because I like to live by, wish for the best plan for the worst, that way you are never disappointed!
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PS I said 38000 before we had even been given the 35000 number. So was rather pleased with that.
PPS congrats to your friend, I am glad he didn't have to wait until August!
I'm not trying to be a Debbie Downer but I just want to put out a possibility not brought up here for the increased wait times:
What if Tesla was expecting their significant increase in battery supplies from Panasonic to arrive this summer and had that already built into their wait times algo on their website...BUT THEN Panasonic gave them a heads up this Spring that their initial planned increase in battery supply from restartng those other factories is delayed by a quarter or two...this would mean Tesla would need to very suddenly recalculate wait times for people to reflect the change in their battery supply expectation from Panasonic.
i hope this is not the case, but it is a real possibility we should keep in mind (maybe 20-25% possibility I would guess)
What if Tesla was expecting their significant increase in battery supplies from Panasonic to arrive this summer and had that already built into their wait times algo on their website...BUT THEN Panasonic gave them a heads up this Spring that their initial planned increase in battery supply from restartng those other factories is delayed by a quarter or two...this would mean Tesla would need to very suddenly recalculate wait times for people to reflect the change in their battery supply expectation from Panasonic.
i hope this is not the case, but it is a real possibility we should keep in mind (maybe 20-25% possibility I would guess)
Maybe there has been something said to suggest they will hit 1,000 per week once production resumes, and I've just missed it. What I have seen of late would be consistent with either hitting 1,000/week imminently, or later in the year.
I first got the idea that they would get to 1,000/week around the end of Q3 from this exchange back in February. Note it is consistent with Vger's suggestion that production going forward may include weeks under 1,000 near term, and weeks over 1,000 toward the end of the year, mixing together to reach at least the 35K guidance. (I've added bolding).
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product ArchitectSo we are constructing a new line in the factory. So it's a little -- before I answer, it's a little complex because there are many pieces that go into making a Model S. Some of which are production-constrained, and some of which are not. So to get to this sort of the hype, the sort of 1,000-plus production rate, we do need sort of a new final assembly line, which we're in the process of constructing. And then we'll transition the final assembly to that, hopefully, around the end of the third quarter or thereabouts. ...
Elaine Kwei - Jefferies LLC, Research DivisionSure, that's really helpful. And with that 1,000 a week with the new -- the final assembly line, is that -- with that, I assume that's not with that maxed out, and that's sort of using part of their capacity. And then there's -- there would be additional capacity beyond that once the construction is completed. Would that be fair to assume?
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product ArchitectYes. It's fair to assume that we will be able to go to higher numbers if the demand is there to -- yes, yes.
Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript | Seeking Alpha
chickensevil
Active Member
Ok, then why the jump to 4 months back RIGHT AFTER the earnings call? And then we have held steady from there. Combine that with someone actually emailing IR and getting the response that it was a demand increase (end of May early June this conversation happened)... so if there was a delay, in batteries now, it would push the wait times further out than 4 months, wouldn't it? And if you are suggesting that this was an issue back in May... that would be extremely dishonest of them to not mention something about this either on the earnings or during subsequent emails (which confirmed demand increase) or some other random press release... Because that would have impacted their guidance for Q2.
The ONLY way that this could be even possible. If they had a drop in supply AND a dramatic drop in demand at the same time... but then... why would demand have just fallen off the radar when everything points to demand going up? There hasn't really been any negative news against the car that would push people away in droves would it? At least no worse than we got during the f*res and we saw that demand didn't really waiver there either...
Unless I am missing something entirely in your suggestion, if so feel free to clarify.
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Yeah, that's where I am getting the connection from. The transition to the new line leads directly to them doing 1k a week or more (I actually don't read that it would be less than 1k since that seems to be their holy grail target from this new line). So this is that new line they were talking about in Feb. the quote was "end of the third quarter or thereabouts" that thereabouts is actually more... middle of quarter three so looks like they were able to get it up quicker from what they estimated in Feb. So really, it should be 1k off the bat and then up from there... So seems to me like you made this even more positive than I was originally thinking
Am I reading this totally wrong? I ask because apparently you and I are reading this totally differently...
The ONLY way that this could be even possible. If they had a drop in supply AND a dramatic drop in demand at the same time... but then... why would demand have just fallen off the radar when everything points to demand going up? There hasn't really been any negative news against the car that would push people away in droves would it? At least no worse than we got during the f*res and we saw that demand didn't really waiver there either...
Unless I am missing something entirely in your suggestion, if so feel free to clarify.
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Yeah, that's where I am getting the connection from. The transition to the new line leads directly to them doing 1k a week or more (I actually don't read that it would be less than 1k since that seems to be their holy grail target from this new line). So this is that new line they were talking about in Feb. the quote was "end of the third quarter or thereabouts" that thereabouts is actually more... middle of quarter three so looks like they were able to get it up quicker from what they estimated in Feb. So really, it should be 1k off the bat and then up from there... So seems to me like you made this even more positive than I was originally thinking
Am I reading this totally wrong? I ask because apparently you and I are reading this totally differently...
TSLAopt, if this is the case, then TM is going to miss the 35000 delivery guidance. but per Simon Sproule in last week interview, the 35k delivery number is still on track. So I think this possibility is very low at least at this moment. But nothing could prevent it happen in the remaining of this year, for example major earthquake hit Japan again.
chickensevil
Active Member
Here is a bit about the factory expansion (pictures): Live Photos....
Here is a little more: TMC Connect Snippets / Gems
I can't find the other thread that had tidbits about the factory upgrade that was revealed at TMC Connect but as I said, everything points to them bringing this new line up, switching the old to strictly test/prototype/etc which means the new line should hit that magical 1k mark right off the bat... I mean, that is its entire purpose... so why wouldn't it?
Here is a little more: TMC Connect Snippets / Gems
I can't find the other thread that had tidbits about the factory upgrade that was revealed at TMC Connect but as I said, everything points to them bringing this new line up, switching the old to strictly test/prototype/etc which means the new line should hit that magical 1k mark right off the bat... I mean, that is its entire purpose... so why wouldn't it?
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Yeah, that's where I am getting the connection from. The transition to the new line leads directly to them doing 1k a week or more (I actually don't read that it would be less than 1k since that seems to be their holy grail target from this new line). So this is that new line they were talking about in Feb. the quote was "end of the third quarter or thereabouts" that thereabouts is actually more... middle of quarter three so looks like they were able to get it up quicker from what they estimated in Feb. So really, it should be 1k off the bat and then up from there... So seems to me like you made this even more positive than I was originally thinking
Am I reading this totally wrong? I ask because apparently you and I are reading this totally differently...
I think I see how you are reading it now, and I'd agree it's a reasonable read on some vague statements. I took their description of a "transition" to a new final assembly line to suggest that the may continue over time a process that allows them to fully utilize the new part of the line after August 4 when the shutdown at the plant ends. i.e., something like, both the old and new lines may still be on the floor when production resumes, with the company slowly ramping up production on the new line to maintain quality, and using the old line to fill in what would otherwise be a shortfall in production while the ramp up occurs.. I must admit, your suggestion seems more convincing than my grasping at an on the ground scenario with 0 auto manufacturing experience, but then I come back to what Simon Sproule is reported to have said.
This is from a week ago today,
"Sproule affirmed the guidance Tesla has given to investors, saying the Palo Alto electric car manufacturer remains on track to produce and deliver 35,000 Model S sedans this year and should reach a run rate of 1,000 cars a week by the end of the year. The company is also expanding its powertrain and battery pack assembly areas on the Fremont factory's third floor."
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_26188834/tesla-idles-fremont-plant-model-x-suv-upgrade
first bolding addressing concerns TslaOpt was raising, second bold, for me raising some doubt that 1,000 vehicles per week will happen straight away when the plant reopens in August (though, really not a big deal if they hit 35K guidance for the year).
chickensevil
Active Member
I guess, I just don't see how they get 35k at this point without getting to 1k sooner than "end of year". The former statement is much more definitive in its timeline than the later.
remains on track to produce and deliver 35,000 Model S sedans this year: We will get at least 35k when we hit Dec 31. gonna happen... no wiggle room in that statement at all.
1,000 cars a week by the end of the year: Well, technically if it happened today, that would still be "by the end of the year" right? So there is much more wiggle room in that statement.
Based on what we have already seen from Q1 and based on what they guided for Q2 (we will get official numbers soon enough which will make this even less guesswork) that is making it to where they must start outputing a larger volume or they won't hit the 35k. The longer they delay ramping to a run rate that would hit that target the higher the run rate needs to be. If they had opened the year at a run rate of 674 a week, then we would be on track to hit 35k already. But because they keep ramping, but just not quite enough... it becomes a moving goal post and at this point they need to come off at 1k very soon or they will miss the mark and have to ramp higher than 1k just to meet the 35k number.
In fairness, I have 0 auto manufacturing experience as well. So, that is why I am quick to second guess my own reasoning on this. So your input is certainly valuable
remains on track to produce and deliver 35,000 Model S sedans this year: We will get at least 35k when we hit Dec 31. gonna happen... no wiggle room in that statement at all.
1,000 cars a week by the end of the year: Well, technically if it happened today, that would still be "by the end of the year" right? So there is much more wiggle room in that statement.
Based on what we have already seen from Q1 and based on what they guided for Q2 (we will get official numbers soon enough which will make this even less guesswork) that is making it to where they must start outputing a larger volume or they won't hit the 35k. The longer they delay ramping to a run rate that would hit that target the higher the run rate needs to be. If they had opened the year at a run rate of 674 a week, then we would be on track to hit 35k already. But because they keep ramping, but just not quite enough... it becomes a moving goal post and at this point they need to come off at 1k very soon or they will miss the mark and have to ramp higher than 1k just to meet the 35k number.
In fairness, I have 0 auto manufacturing experience as well. So, that is why I am quick to second guess my own reasoning on this. So your input is certainly valuable
I know the big limiter is the batteries. But besides Vgrinshpun I dont really see many people acknowledge that if they have built a whole new line that can build 1k a week ... and they have an old line that could build 800 per week, If they had the batteries they could build a lot more than 1k cars a week right now. This is the question I dream gets asked during the Q&A ... and I hope its the first question so everyone hears it lol.
Chicken, this would go back to what Vger suggested in post 83, and the comment from Elon I included in post 86... the second half of the year may begin with production under 1K/week, have a period at 1K/week, and close as high as 1.2K/week, together getting the 21K or so they'll need to pump out in the second half. It seems quite likely this question will come up on Thursday. Even if Tesla is not totally clear on this one on the call, I think we'll get something clearer than what we've got now.
chickensevil
Active Member
Here is hoping for a great ER and Conference Call!
Can we at least all agree, per the discussion of the topic at hand, that the 4 month delay gives more credence toward higher demand and less credence (although likely contributing on a very small scale) toward the notion that the increase is wholly based (or mostly) on the shutdown? Because as I see it, no matter how you slice this pie the shutdown doesn't seem to be playing a role in the delay of significance, which is great news for overall demand levels continuing to rise.
Can we at least all agree, per the discussion of the topic at hand, that the 4 month delay gives more credence toward higher demand and less credence (although likely contributing on a very small scale) toward the notion that the increase is wholly based (or mostly) on the shutdown? Because as I see it, no matter how you slice this pie the shutdown doesn't seem to be playing a role in the delay of significance, which is great news for overall demand levels continuing to rise.
I was worry about 1 month shut down (rumor in TMC) before. 2 weeks shut down sounds inline with Elon's prediction and it actually includes 1 week regular maintenance shut down. So 1 additional week shut down will only cost 800 production and with 25% increased run rate from August 4th, TM should be able to catch up easily in 4 weeks, i.e. by end of August. So overall I think the factory shut down should only help reducing the wait time for delivery scheduled after August.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Remember kids, the Model S is battery constrained. So even if they had a hiccup in reconfiguring the assembly line, with 2 lines available they would be able to catch up rather quickly.
The wait time is due to an increase in demand.
chickensevil
Active Member
So from the earnings call, to put this issue to rest, they are saying that they will for sure be at 1000 a week by the end of Q3. So you were right SteveG3 that they won't come online in August right at 1,000 and it might take a little time.
As far as the wait times, I think they made that clear both in the letter and on the call that this is almost all caused by the demand increase and not by anything else.
As far as the wait times, I think they made that clear both in the letter and on the call that this is almost all caused by the demand increase and not by anything else.
Wow. It's interesting that they're putting the S60 at Late-December while the S85 and P85 are December.
wow... December! they just updated to November about a week ago.
Thanks for the acknowledgement chicken.
It was an awesome call, the only tough part for me is I've not had a chance to be on TMC the past couple of days to enjoy these threads.
Thanks for the acknowledgement chicken.
It was an awesome call, the only tough part for me is I've not had a chance to be on TMC the past couple of days to enjoy these threads.
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