Website wait times for delivery change

[chickensevil]

Just wanted to get everyone's opinion. It seems like the website delivery time hasn't changed at all since a month ago. US is still November. Either production is ramping up significantly, as reported (good news), or demand is not increasing as fast as production, or mix of both. Nobody credible would believe Tesla has a demand problem, but does anybody else wonder why S60 doesn't say Late Nov at the least?

They have been badly screwing with the delivery times from when people order. I saw recently someone was getting a late October date. I think the slow restart combined with the very quick ramp... We are talking likely 600 cars from the restart to 1000 here in the next couple weeks has pushed this all over the place that it is extremely hard to read this one. In Tesla we trust, at this point, when it comes to figuring out where the demand really is. At least until things settle back down again at the factory...

 

[SteveG3]

Just wanted to get everyone's opinion. It seems like the website delivery time hasn't changed at all since a month ago. US is still November. Either production is ramping up significantly, as reported (good news), or demand is not increasing as fast as production, or mix of both. Nobody credible would believe Tesla has a demand problem, but does anybody else wonder why S60 doesn't say Late Nov at the least?

Something to keep an eye on. That said, I just checked a couple of countries in Europe (Norway and France) and they both had 4 months for P85, 4-5 months for 60 and 85, so I'm not particularly concerned re U.S. sitting at November for a while. I tried to check China but I didn't see anything indicating wait time.

 

[JBusch]

From Delivery Update Thread. At least 1 person got the delivery date moved up, quoting DS saying slightly ahead of plan production.
View attachment 56015

Maknyyuzz: well my DS was overly optimistic now plan deliver is open until I hear back from them. Hoping for this month.

 

[SteveG3]

updated:

60 Late December
85, P85 December

 

[uselesslogin]

Wait times changed:

60/85S: March
85D: Late February
P85D: December

 

[jhm]

Wait times changed:

60/85S: March
85D: Late February
P85D: December

Why would they give priory to 85D over 85?

 

[Auzie]

Why would they give priory to 85D over 85?

Higher margin, but more importantly bragging rights

 

[vgrinshpun]

Wait times changed:

60/85S: March
85D: Late February
P85D: December

Interesting that January was skipped as far as US deliveries go - looks like all of the January production is slated to be shipped overseas.

 

[maoing]

Agree. I also suspect almost entire December production is reserved for NA delivery. Why? In order to mitigate the production risk like in Q3 (unlikely in Q4 though), this way helps to achieve delivery guidance at least in the case of production miss. Let's say there are two scenarios for Q4 production:
1. slow on production ramp, only produce 11K or so vehicles: TM will try their best to meet delivery guidance 11K but with produciton miss;
2. ramp up as expected, produce 13K vehicles: due to TM can delivery almost all December production, so I think Q4 delivery number might end up with 13K, which will be 18% higher than guidance;

Btw, I don't think the 2K difference between Q4 production and delivery is for transition pipe fill up. TM just left some room in case of production miss again because Elon and TM managements aren't VERY confident about Q4 production rate in the Q4 ER CC.

 

[maoing]

85D also changed to March delivery now. With big backlog in EU and Asia, I think TM is essentially sold out Jan/Feb 2015 production. Even P85D is still available for Dec. delivery, but there might not have many slots left, so TM just uses those slots as Christmas gifts to please high buying power customers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Based on the complilation of order delivery data from the TM site the current TM backlog of worldwide orders extends at least through June, if not August. Assuming 48 production weeks per year, at current rate of production of at least 1,000 cars/week the total estimated Model S backlog is at least 24,000 cars! Just thought to post this info to help with exposing the demand falling FUD...

 

[Chickenlittle]

Based on the complilation of order delivery data from the TM site the current TM backlog of worldwide orders extends at least through June, if not August. Assuming 48 production weeks per year, at current rate of production of at least 1,000 cars/week the total estimated Model S backlog is at least 24,000 cars! Just thought to post this info to help with exposing the demand falling FUD...

View attachment 65400

I don't believe they are up to date and probably longer. For instance only 3 was left in yr and yet claim ps85d can be ordered produced and delivered within 3 weeks to Canada and us with a holiday season thrown in also

 

[RationalOptimist]

I don't believe they are up to date and probably longer. For instance only 3 was left in yr and yet claim ps85d can be ordered produced and delivered within 3 weeks to Canada and us with a holiday season thrown in also

Those UK and Australia outliers are prob due to RH drive versions taking longer. Really the backlog is to April outside the US, implying production booked solid into March.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Those UK and Australia outliers are prob due to RH drive versions taking longer. Really the backlog is to April outside the US, implying production booked solid into March.

Agree on RH outliers, but the dates are based on internal Tesla information on incoming reservation rates.

The March and April, however, are essentially filled and 85D versions for Norway (not a RHD market) are spilling into May. So I would say that solid booking is into May.

Also, the production is slated to grow, and TM is aware of this planned growth, so when they take reservations for May because Aprill is essentially filled, this fill is at the rate that is certaintly higher than 1000 cars per week, we just do not know by how much.

Regarding the RHD versions, although the June and Aug are outliers, I have hard time to believe that GB and Australia D models backlog is 0, so whatever quantities were ordered are in addition to other backlog which is into May.As a result I would say that my original estimate of 24,000 cars in the MS backlog is conservative

 

[schonelucht]

Don't forget to substract shipping though. For Europe that's at least 3-4 weeks, for Asia probably longer. Conservatively I would say up to March is solidly booked for production. That's a little less than 4 months. Assuming 1200 cars/week that's a backlog of 21600 cars. The wildcard is Model X reservations although I don't think they are already scheduled for production...

 

[vgrinshpun]

Don't forget to substract shipping though. For Europe that's at least 3-4 weeks, for Asia probably longer. Conservatively I would say up to March is solidly booked for production. That's a little less than 4 months. Assuming 1200 cars/week that's a backlog of 21600 cars. The wildcard is Model X reservations although I don't think they are already scheduled for production...

Why do you suggest substracting shipping time? This metric is irrelevant here, it factors in when calculating deliveries based on production.

 

[maoing]

P85D changed to Late Feb. delivery for NA market. Not sure it's due to manufacture window closed or fully booked up for December producation capacity?

 

[chickensevil]

P85D changed to Late Feb. delivery for NA market. Not sure it's due to manufacture window closed or fully booked up for December producation capacity?

Likely booked as someone posted about being part of the last batch for NA. So January production will see full shift into overseas production, which means I wouldn't expect hardly any "sales" in January. Just the ones that were slightly delayed (missing the Dec cutoff) and delayed registrations. It is cool we are getting an even clearer picture about how all this works out.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Based on the complilation of order delivery data from the TM site the current TM backlog of worldwide orders extends at least through June, if not August. Assuming 48 production weeks per year, at current rate of production of at least 1,000 cars/week the total estimated Model S backlog is at least 24,000 cars! Just thought to post this info to help with exposing the demand falling FUD...

View attachment 65400

As noted by Maoing, projected wait times changed in US. After updating the table, the wait times changed in Canada as well. Changes in wait times as compared to previous update are shown in blue italics.

 

[maoing]

P85D NA delivery date moved from late Feb. to late March now, and all 4 models delivery date is late March. So TM 15' Q1 production is about to be sold out probablay by mid-Jan.

EDIT: I guess 60, 85 and 85D delivery date will be moved into Q2 soon because TM always prioritize performance model over others and it's better for TM to leave the remaining production capacity for high margin model.