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What other tech stock to consider?
- Thread starter Sanny
- Start date
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Year over year growth in units shipped and revenue was over 60%, gross margins on EyeQ processors are over 75%, and the company had free cash flow of over 30M for last quarter:
Mobileye N.V. - Mobileye Announces First Quarter 2016 Financial Results
This company has real potential if its technology becomes dominant in self-driving cars.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Interesting that the initial sp decrease in Mbly was no where near % drop in tsla
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I believe this may be due to 2 factors:
First, Mobileye provides only 1 component of the Tesla Autopilot system: the visual processing sub-system (camera, IQ Processor, and associated software). Autopilot also uses a forward facing radar and array of ultrasonic sensors. Tesla is responsible for integrating all of these systems.
Second, much of the media coverage concerning the accident fatality in May focused on (1) the Model S radar allegedly confusing the tractor trailer for an overhead road sign and (2) Speculation that the Model S driver was watching a DVD of Harry Potter, because of statements from the truck driver to that effect, and police findings that a DVD player was in the car at the time of the accident. Mobileye is barely a footnote in the coverage.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Mobileye shares climb after second-quarter earnings beat
MBLY delivered a healthy quarterly earnings report, which sent shares over $50.
And then Mobileye announced that it would no longer be working with Tesla beyond Mobileye's EyeQ3 product: Mobileye won’t supply Tesla self-driving tech beyond current EyeQ3 processor
Sending shares tumbling 10% premarket, despite Mobileye's qualification that Tesla's business was not substantial to their finances.
Mobileye's EyeQ4 is slated to begin production in 2018.
MBLY delivered a healthy quarterly earnings report, which sent shares over $50.
And then Mobileye announced that it would no longer be working with Tesla beyond Mobileye's EyeQ3 product: Mobileye won’t supply Tesla self-driving tech beyond current EyeQ3 processor
Sending shares tumbling 10% premarket, despite Mobileye's qualification that Tesla's business was not substantial to their finances.
Mobileye's EyeQ4 is slated to begin production in 2018.
One company I really believe in and have invested heavily in is IMINT:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IMINT:SS
They used to do video stabilisation for drones, but have now switched to smartphones. Their products compares very nicely to iPhones:
http://vidhancemobile.com/video/web_orig_iphone_vidh_720.mp4
Video Stabilization : Vidhance
They also make auto zoom for cameras:
Live Auto Zoom : Vidhance
They have been getting a few contracts with some small players and the rumours is that they are working with some big asian manufacturers.
Their market is huge, their product seems to be the best and if they just get some big customer their stock should keep going through the roof.
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IMINT:SS
They used to do video stabilisation for drones, but have now switched to smartphones. Their products compares very nicely to iPhones:
http://vidhancemobile.com/video/web_orig_iphone_vidh_720.mp4
Video Stabilization : Vidhance
They also make auto zoom for cameras:
Live Auto Zoom : Vidhance
They have been getting a few contracts with some small players and the rumours is that they are working with some big asian manufacturers.
Their market is huge, their product seems to be the best and if they just get some big customer their stock should keep going through the roof.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I made 10% with mobleye but am out now. They only believe in camera based solution to autonomous driving. Implies camera can overcome heavy fog, rain and snow. Any solution not accounting for adverse conditions is not credible. They have no plans for other modes. I also do not understand the alliance with Intel. Mobileye makes their chips. Why ally with chip maker.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I have not gotten the impression from Mobileye that they believe in "camera only" for autonomous driving. The company has chosen to focus on visual processing algorithms and hardware optimized to run those algorithms. They do not provide a full solution.
With respect to Intel:
I believe you are confusing chip design with chip fabrication. Chip design is creating a blueprint for the layout of the chip: its math processing units, memory interface, and pathways that connected all the different parts of the chip. Fabrication is actually making the chip in a factory, and those factories typically cost Billions of dollars. Mobileye designs chips. I don't believe they fabricate them. It is likely that Mobileye designs their chips and then works with an outside company to have them fabricated.
Think of it as analogized to an architect (Mobileye) and civil engineering firm (fab company). The Architect designs a building. The Civil engineering firm takes that design and constructs the building.
Intel has some of the best, if not the best, chip fabrication technology in the world. They can take Mobileye's designs and build them in a cost effective and power efficient manner.
Intel does design chips, but their processors are mostly general purpose processing for PCs and Servers. Mobileye's EyeQ chip is an ASIC: Application Specific Integrated Circuit. The EyeQ hardware is designed to run specific algorithms very quickly and at maximum power efficiency. This is very different from an Intel Core i3/i5/i7 processor that is designed to run almost anything.
Chickenlittle
Banned
I agree they do not offer a complete solution but in cc in the past they have stated they believe in complete camera only solution. I do believe stock will run for a while but they ultimately will lose
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Lose to whom, and lose when?
Tesla is the obvious competitor, given Elon's statements about wanting to push for Autonomous Driving as soon as possible. But even if Tesla were to develop a complete system that is better than Mobileye, that doesn't necessarily mean that other car companies would adopt it. Tesla has opened up its patents and any car company could have announced partnership on Superchargers, but so far there are no takers.
I believe it does not matter whether MobileEye believes in a camera-only solution or not. The fact of the matter is that almost all car makers are using a combination of sensors, but they are buying MobilEye visual processing units for the "seeing" component. They don't have to provide complete solutions to keep on growing very quickly.
The danger is that some other supplier will come up with a better visual processing unit and then sell a complete self-driving package. That's what George Hotz's company Comma.ai is trying to do. Among traditional car suppliers, I'm not seeing much that is demonstrably better.
If Hotz's product starts to gain traction and prove itself to be better, then I would say MobilEye's long term prospects are less promising.
As far as I know MBLY valuation as it stands today is not based on delivering a small portion of the package but offering the full package. As I understand, a lot of MBLY valuation is based on a) Having a fully autonomous solution b) MBLY will get a cut in revenues gained through fully autonomous business models (ride sharing, autonomous goods transport and such).
If Tesla gets to fully autonomy much ahead of MBLY, in this winner-takes-all economic world, there will be very little left for the other players in the new autonomous business models. That is especially true if competitors are competing with ICEs. Don't want to rehash everything Julian used to say about this. But in a nutshell Tesla will build cars capable of going a million miles, with negligible fuel/maintenance costs, in such a way that the total cost of operation would be lower than just the fuel costs of ICE. So in the long run all present automakers are all dead. There would be only a few new age transportation companies that run the world, to a large degree and maybe some small niche markets for ICEs where for whatever reason fully autonomy doesn't work (utterly poor roads).
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Again, this assumes 2 things:
That other automakers will want to use Tesla technology in mass production rather than a Mobileye solution. So far, there have been few or no takers on Tesla tech ever since Toyota and Daimler ended their contracts with Tesla.
And
That Tesla will kill all other carmakers. I don't see Tesla building tens of millions of cars anytime soon and displacing everyone from big players like Volkswagen to niche companies like Subaru.
I'm sure some existing ICE makers will go out of business, but I suspect that a few will adapt and survive. There's no reason to expect that Tesla will have a monopoly on electric cars or autonomy, nor is this what Elon intends. The reason for Tesla's existence is to speed the transition to sustainable energy, not kill the other automakers just for the sake of killing them and delivering the profits to shareholders.
Apple's transformation of the smart phone market didn't kill Samsung and LG, nor do any of the other smart phone makers depend on Apple for critical tech like processors, software, or services. Some platforms like Symbian and BlackBerry died, but overall the smart phone marketplace is still intensely competitive.
Good. I found his posts to be rambling and ridiculous. His advice was generally terrible.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
My overall position on Mobileye is that the company has potential, but that autonomous driving is a product area that is still very much in its early stages.
There is no guarantee that Mobileye will become a dominant supplier in the future, but I also don't take it as a given that Tesla or George Hotz will necessarily beat them or cause them to become extinct. Anyone buying MBLY should keep close tabs on the company and its competition to get a sense of where things are going.
There is no guarantee that Mobileye will become a dominant supplier in the future, but I also don't take it as a given that Tesla or George Hotz will necessarily beat them or cause them to become extinct. Anyone buying MBLY should keep close tabs on the company and its competition to get a sense of where things are going.
That's a good summary.
To clarify, my point of contention is NOT that Tesla will ever offer autonomous driving as a package to other automakers, let alone to ICE makers.
I ran numbers on MBLY when they were coming out in IPO and felt that the valuation is very very rich. I don't have specifics anymore but from what I remember:
There is no way MBLY deserves it's valuation as merely a component supplier. For MBLY to grow into it's valuation and beyond, two things need to happen 1) It needs to develop fully autonomous solution 2) It needs to be able to get a cut of recurring revenues from transportation-as-a-service providers.
Item-1 I don't know if MBLY is capable or not. Item-2 more and more seems like an improbability as I see Tesla sweeping that market away.
That is how I see TSLA being a threat to MBLY especially given it's rich stock valuation.
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