When is structural battery pack & 4680 cells coming & Why are you not waiting until then?

[EVer Hopeful]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?

You asked "When?" and "Why?" but maybe a more important question is "How?"

as in once 4680s become available, How will they be integrated into the vehicle? You're assuming the range will increase, but maybe it'll stay the same because they'll put fewer in there to save money

How much will a 4680 vehicle cost? You said it was a "Huge upgrade" so maybe there'll be a commensurate price increase

Also if the current order book is running with over three moths lead time, How long will you have to wait until you get you 4680 vehicle?


I was waiting for the 4680s too, then I saw a video that (correctly IMO) suggested that when they finally became available, there'd be something else to wait for. I'm now $1500 better off because I placed my order on June 22nd, which is like getting a free tow hitch, or free red paint, or free 20" wheels, or a free white interior ... and soon there'll be another price increase

Maybe more importantly still (and please don't take this as a personal insult because it's not meant that way) How does it feel driving around in an old used S when you could be driving a new Y

 

[EVer Hopeful]

This was a big reason for me holding off on a Model Y reservation (along with road noise compared to a Model S.) Because these battery packs seem at least a year away, I am filling that time with a Ioniq 5 because the V2L system seems like a great feature for camping.

I had a regular Ioniq from Carvana for a week, with maybe 300 miles on the clock and I almost took that route. It was an excellent vehicle. I gave it back though because it was a 2019 and they increased the range dramatically for the 2020, plus with the (still available) tax credit, a new 2020 would have been about the same price - and with double the warranty

Oh and I almost forgot ... you can't buy them in Texas <bang head>

 

[DanDi58]

Based on Tesla delaying Semi production again due to a lack of batteries (4680's), I'd be concerned about them being available for the MY any time soon - they have customers actively awaiting the Semi so I don't think they would delay those sales any longer than they had to and already selling every MY they can make with the current technology.

 

[teslaspotter]

Well, I didn't wait. two lead -acid and one FLAWED, used, LiFePhos packs later I would LOVE 220 - 4680s to get my second iteration[or maybe 3rd]. The 4680s would allow me to reconfigure the traction pack design. The T-bone design got me on the road 2003-2014, but the gap was too big; all packs failed in the same place. Switching out the junkyard wiring for new stuff might help too. O yeah , I should buy a ready made, but MY car fits my driveway and my beekeeping gear fits the car.. I was ready to buy the hatch back "Y" but it is too "Y"ed.
www.evalbum.com/1745
choose love!

 

[tangible1]

Tesla Model Y News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla Model Y models including first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features, recalls and more.

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he just doesn't say WHEN the 4680-based packs will be available.
Elon ALSO says there's a 'backup plan' for Tesla to use 2170 cells until 4680 is ready. And that is what will come out of Texas first.
But the real issue is the use of BOTH F+R MAGACASTS.
Their use in constructing the chassis will save WEIGHT, up to 10% (440lbs) according to statements Elon has made (200lbs when paired with 2170 cells).
Weight buys range, performance, and handling.
4680 batteries aren't worth the wait. But a F+R megacasts-based chassis IS worth the wait.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

he just doesn't say WHEN the 4680-based packs will be available.
Elon ALSO says there's a 'backup plan' for Tesla to use 2170 cells until 4680 is ready. And that is what will come out of Texas first.
But the real issue is the use of BOTH F+R MAGACASTS.
Their use in constructing the chassis will save WEIGHT, up to 10% (440lbs) according to statements Elon has made (200lbs when paired with 2170 cells).
Weight buys range, performance, and handling.
4680 batteries aren't worth the wait. But a F+R megacasts-based chassis IS worth the wait.

Although the Meagacasts is fantastic, waiting for the front casting without the structural 4680 pack is silly. Might as well wait until it’s all three. Getting a MY with front and rear megacasts but having the “old” 2170 non-structural battery pack sandwiched between them isn’t worth any wait. Just wait for the 4680!

 

[tangible1]

Along with the 4680 pack, did they not also want to change to a 48 Volt electrical system? I would think that they want this to run concurrently. This changes all the wiring and accessories!!

Elon has stated in interviews (specifically with Sandy Munro) that a 48V system was considered but the infrastructure to support it (ie electric parts) don't exist.
So it wasn't worth implementing. Tesla would have had to re-invent THAT whole wheel along with all the other pain points.

 

[Hurricane4911]

When do you think the structural battery pack and 4680 cells are coming to the Model Y?
When Austin is up and running? When will Austin be doing volume production of the Y? Is Tesla going to begin production in Austin with 4680 packs or 2170 packs trucked over from Nevada?

Why are folks not waiting until the 4680 cells to order their Model Y?
Won't these 4680 cells provide greater range and charging speed benefits? But, perhaps, most significantly, longevity of the pack?

The Velocity of Change.
I did not wait and ordered my MYLR this summer and waiting for delivery. With Austin full focus on Model Y till 2022 and 4680 cells a good 6 months away, I do not see any 4680s entering into the Models 3 or Y anytime soon. Those batteries are headed to Model S, X, Cybertruck, and Semi.

Also, the 2170s appear to be software capped at 76kwh. I've seen reports of the real number being 82kwh. The 3 and Y are the freshest products. You might even consider the current MY as version 1.5 given all the upgrades in the current config. There is a lot of backlog, and I see no need to upgrade the battery...now.

The velocity of change is enormous. We all know that 1 year from now, we will be having the same "wait or jump" conversation.
That's the fun part.

 

[tangible1]

Although the Meagacasts is fantastic, waiting for the front casting without the structural 4680 pack is silly. Might as well wait until it’s all three. Getting a MY with front and rear megacasts but having the “old” 2170 non-structural battery pack sandwiched between them isn’t worth any wait. Just wait for the 4680!

MY OPINION - YMMV
Weight matters more than battery type. Only people on an extended road trip will experience any difference in charging times, and there will be NO RANGE IMPROVEMENT.
Tesla won't put in more batteries to extend range any time soon. No competitive need, and fewer batteries means cheaper to manufacture (which is also the benefit of castings).
While there's been no discussion from Tesla (that I've seen) regarding HOW the 2170 'backup plan' is to be implemented, it would have to make use of a structural battery pack.
The front megacast doesn't appear capable of being used with the current, standard skateboard battery pack if you look at it's layout in the 'Battery Day' diagrams.

 

[Terminator857]

Pic of structural battery pack with 4680 cells from giga fest at giga berlin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446810591889395716

 

[BTVev]

Pic of structural battery pack with 4680 cells from giga fest at giga berlin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446810591889395716

This is awesome, glad to see them and hopefully there’s some upcoming news about when Austin will start producing these. Between the 4680 and the single cast front and back things are hopefully starting to come to fruition. My EDD is coming up in a couple months, I may hold delay a bit to see if range increases or, even less likely, prices come down as they implement this in the US Model Y production.

 

[Terminator857]

... delay a bit to see if range increases or, even less likely, prices come down as they implement this in the US Model Y production.

With a 6 month backlog a price increase is more likely. Price drop is more likely in a year when producing 5K cars a week.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

There won't be a rane increase. If these batteries are better, they'll just install fewer of them

 

[BTVev]

With a 6 month backlog a price increase is more likely. Price drop is more likely in a year when producing 5K cars a week.

I suspect you’re right on both fronts. It’ll be interesting to see how production ramp up in Berlin and Austin affect things around this time next year and into early 2023. The pace of innovation being driven by Tesla is pretty amazing, it’s proved the viability of EVs as a mass consumer product and the legacy OEMs are finally taking notice.

 

[BTVev]

There won't be a rane increase. If these batteries are better, they'll just install fewer of them

Agreed, that seems to be the consensus which will likely help reduce costs for Tesla (and hopefully us consumers). Plus they’re pretty essential to Tesla’s other plans for the CT and Semi.

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

I suspect you’re right on both fronts. It’ll be interesting to see how production ramp up in Berlin and Austin affect things around this time next year and into early 2023. The pace of innovation being driven by Tesla is pretty amazing, it’s proved the viability of EVs as a mass consumer product and the legacy OEMs are finally taking notice.

It’s also worth noting that all the day traders who predicted Tesla’s failure years ago are starting to take notice. No more shorts. Legacy automakers are going to be licensing Tesla technology in order to survive over the next several years. Or steal it like Rivian. In a time when no other Automaker can source semiconductors, Tesla sold over 270,000 cars.. lol. Damn right everybody in the automotive world has their attention. It’s going to be a very interesting 2022 - and this is without CyberTruck, Semi, Roadster, or 4860 cells for that matter. 2023 will even be more interesting as 4860’s become the new standard while Ford and the others try to stay afloat with their stupid electric “Mustang”. Also, Tesla has paid off all of their debt and now operating off of pure profit. Literally a cash making machine. Buy your TSLA stock now people!

 

[JimmySure]

Pic of structural battery pack with 4680 cells from giga fest at giga berlin

https://twitter.com/x/status/1446810591889395716

Looks like a museum display model vs anything ready for production.

 

[Exelion]

It almost looks like the frame behind has 2170’s for comparison. Too much is hidden from view though.

 

[tangible1]

It almost looks like the frame behind has 2170’s for comparison. Too much is hidden from view though.

According to the blogs and Tesla tour sites, the demo frame in back is indeed showing the 2170 battery pack.
It appears Tesla has both a 4680 and a 2170 battery pack; I'm still unclear whether the 2170 pack is structural or not. It seems not.
Tesla seems to be telling people in both Berlin and Austin that the MY cars made there will initially be using 2170 packs until 4680 becomes production-ready next year.
Austin will get batteries from Fremont (Kato Road and GigaNevada) until Austin can make them. Berlin will get batteries from China until able to be made in Berlin.

 

[tangible1]

Model Y out of Berlin is my guess.

Later this year Plaid+ S out of Fremont will be the first with 4680, after that I imagine Cyber Truck out of GigaTexas; but it would not surprise me if all USA model Y stays with current tech for the next few years and continues sourcing the current batteries out of Nevada.



They have places to drive?



I believe most of the benefits of 4680 will be on the manufacturing side, you should be more excited about this technology as a Telsa investor rather than a Tesla consumer.

Tesla currently has the best battery tech for EV. Will that improve with 4680, it appears so but you can’t really go wrong with the current offering.

There's LITTLE chance Tesla will re-engineer the battery packs in the MS so quickly after the MS refresh. But it's Tesla, so who knows.
There's a BETTER chance 4680's could make it into the much-delayed MX refresh.
The BEST chance is that the 4680 structural packs get into the MY out of Fremont, and BEFORE Berlin or Austin get them. Remember, Berlin will get cells from China first.
Tesla has the most incentive to save the battery and manufacturing costs on it's highest-volume product - the MY.
Tesla Fremont Kato Road facility is the world's ONLY source for 4680 batteries for the near term.